2024 General Election Polling Thread

[Rate This]

If Harris wins Iowa, I will eat bmw's socks. Even the crusty one under the bed

[bmw]

Hope you like cottonmouth. I don’t think it’s manipulation. It’s some of the people who had Trump on the brain realizing he’s collapsing. Women powered this poll result. They are outvoting men by double digits and Harris is being UNDERCOUNTED in polling by not having enough women, young voters and minorities in the sample because it’s based on 2020 and Biden didn’t pull those groups nearly as well as she is. Democrats are outpacing Republicans by 10 in enthusiasm which is higher than it was for Obama ‘08. By overturning Roe the GOP will have fucked around and found out. Trump is in serious trouble here… wake up man.

For someone who says you shouldn't get cocky and over-confident, you sound rather cocky and over-confident.

[Rate This]

Hope you like cottonmouth. I don’t think it’s manipulation. It’s some of the people who had Trump on the brain realizing he’s collapsing. Women powered this poll result. They are outvoting men by double digits and Harris is being UNDERCOUNTED in polling by not having enough women, young voters and minorities in the sample because it’s based on 2020 and Biden didn’t pull those groups nearly as well as she is. Democrats are outpacing Republicans by 10 in enthusiasm which is higher than it was for Obama ‘08. By overturning Roe the GOP will have fucked around and found out. Trump is in serious trouble here… wake up man.

For someone who says you shouldn't get cocky and over-confident, you sound rather cocky and over-confident.

Just confident. I waited for mounting evidence which we have now. I tried up and down to get you to do the same and now that ship has sailed, been attacked by a submarine and is rapidly sinking into the abyss.

[TC Talks]

Some of the exit polling in Georgia has been encouraging. 4 of the 7 million eligible voters there have already voted.

[TC Talks]

If Harris wins Iowa, I will eat bmw's socks. Even the crusty one under the bed

I'd send you a case of diapers if you do that...

[Rate This]

November 2

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

Atlas Intel*
Michigan:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 47

Wisconsin:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Pennsylvania:
Trump 50
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Trump 51
Harris 47

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 52
Harris 46

Nevada:
Trump 52
Harris 46

National:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Rasmussen Reports*
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Michigan Senate:
Rogers 46
Slotkin 45

Des Moines Register
Iowa:
Harris 47
Trump 44
Kennedy 3
Oliver 1

Emerson
Iowa:
Trump 54
Harris 45

MassINC
Massachusetts:
Harris 61
Trump 31

Survey USA
Maine:
Harris 51
Trump 43

University of California Berkley
California:
Harris 57
Trump 35

University of Wyoming
Wyoming:
Trump 63
Harris 28

[Mega Hertz]

November 2

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

Atlas Intel*
Michigan:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 47

Wisconsin:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Pennsylvania:
Trump 50
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Trump 51
Harris 47

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 52
Harris 46

Nevada:
Trump 52
Harris 46

National:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Rasmussen Reports*
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Michigan Senate:
Rogers 46
Slotkin 45

Des Moines Register
Iowa:
Harris 47
Trump 44
Kennedy 3
Oliver 1

Emerson
Iowa:
Trump 54
Harris 45

MassINC
Massachusetts:
Harris 61
Trump 31

Survey USA
Maine:
Harris 51
Trump 43

University of California Berkley
California:
Harris 57
Trump 35

University of Wyoming
Wyoming:
Trump 63
Harris 28

So what do you think the deal is when a "suspected GOP pollster" has a result with the DemocratIC candidate leading?

[Matt]

November 2

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

Atlas Intel*
Michigan:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 47

Wisconsin:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Pennsylvania:
Trump 50
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Trump 51
Harris 47

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 52
Harris 46

Nevada:
Trump 52
Harris 46

National:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Rasmussen Reports*
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Michigan Senate:
Rogers 46
Slotkin 45

Des Moines Register
Iowa:
Harris 47
Trump 44
Kennedy 3
Oliver 1

Emerson
Iowa:
Trump 54
Harris 45

MassINC
Massachusetts:
Harris 61
Trump 31

Survey USA
Maine:
Harris 51
Trump 43

University of California Berkley
California:
Harris 57
Trump 35

University of Wyoming
Wyoming:
Trump 63
Harris 28

So what do you think the deal is when a "suspected GOP pollster" has a result with the DemocratIC candidate leading?

The insinuation is that the lead is understated.

[Mega Hertz]

November 2

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

Atlas Intel*
Michigan:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 47

Wisconsin:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Pennsylvania:
Trump 50
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Trump 51
Harris 47

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 52
Harris 46

Nevada:
Trump 52
Harris 46

National:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Rasmussen Reports*
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Michigan Senate:
Rogers 46
Slotkin 45

Des Moines Register
Iowa:
Harris 47
Trump 44
Kennedy 3
Oliver 1

Emerson
Iowa:
Trump 54
Harris 45

MassINC
Massachusetts:
Harris 61
Trump 31

Survey USA
Maine:
Harris 51
Trump 43

University of California Berkley
California:
Harris 57
Trump 35

University of Wyoming
Wyoming:
Trump 63
Harris 28

So what do you think the deal is when a "suspected GOP pollster" has a result with the DemocratIC candidate leading?

The insinuation is that the lead is understated.

Gotcha. Thanks. Polls confuse the shit out of me.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 53% Chance
Harris 46% Chance

PredictIt:
Harris 54
Trump 52

Virtual Tout:
Harris 301 EV’s
Trump 237 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 276 EV’s
Trump 251 EV’s
Tied 11 EV’s (Arizona)

[Rate This]

November 3

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

YouGov
Michigan:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Wisconsin:
Harris 51
Trump 47

Pennsylvania:
Harris 51
Trump 48

Arizona:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Nevada:
Harris 50
Trump 49

New York Times / Siena
Michigan:
Trump 47
Harris 47

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 48
Rogers 46

Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Wisconsin:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Arizona:
Trump 49
Harris 45

Nevada:
Harris 49
Trump 46

Georgia:
Harris 48
Trump 47

North Carolina:
Harris 48
Trump 46

Insider Advantage*
Michigan:
Trump 47
Harris 47

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 48
Rogers 48

Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Wisconsin:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 49
Harris 46

Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Trafalgar Group*
Michigan:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 47
Rogers 47

Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Wisconsin:
Harris 48
Trump 47

MNS / Mitchell Research
Michigan:
Harris 50
Trump 48

Morning Consult
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 41

Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Wisconsin:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Florida:
Trump 51
Harris 46

Ohio:
Trump 53
Harris 44

Texas:
Trump 52
Harris 45

Maryland:
Harris 64
Trump 31

National:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Muhlenberg College
Pennsylvania:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Noble Predictive Insights
Nevada:
Harris 49
Trump 48

UNH
New Hampshire:
Harris 51
Trump 46

Maine:
Harris 52
Trump 41

Maine CD-1:
Harris 60
Trump 36

Maine CD-2:
Trump 48
Harris 44

Massachusetts:
Harris 60
Trump 34

Vermont:
Harris 63
Trump 31

Stetson University
Florida:
Trump 53
Harris 46

NBC News
National:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47
Republicans 46

ABC News / Ipsos
National:
Harris 49
Trump 46

Yahoo News
National:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48
Republicans 45

New York Post
National:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Emerson
National:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48
Republicans 47

TIPP*
National:
Trump 49
Harris 48

[Turkeytop]

How can it possibly be so close?

[Rate This]

How can it possibly be so close?

By using 2020’s electorate as a model. But that was when Biden was in and Democratic enthusiasm wasn’t close to what it is now. The polls are very likely undercounting her and overcounting him. Add it up and I bet it isn’t close.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 53% Chance
Harris 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Harris 53
Trump 53

Virtual Tout:
Trump 270 EV’s
Harris 268 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 276 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 16 EV’s (North Carolina)

[georgetownt]

How can it possibly be so close?

By using 2020’s electorate as a model. But that was when Biden was in and Democratic enthusiasm wasn’t close to what it is now. The polls are very likely undercounting her and overcounting him. Add it up and I bet it isn’t close.

Chuckling like Kamalahahahaha. Biden got 81 Million votes way more than Obama 1.0 which he got lots of cross over votes. No way she gets anywhere 81 million votes.