Week of 8/9

[MWmetalhead]

I'll start off with today's severe weather threat for west central / southwest lower Michigan: I'm not impressed by the environment the HRRR model data (from 11a today) is showing over the region. Stronger dynamics are located over Lake Michigan and especially Illinois. I think any severe weather in West Michigan will be isolated and low-end in nature if it occurs. I think the squall line currently over Lake Michigan will become weaker and ragged around the time it reaches the Michigan shoreline.

I realize the SPC just issued a severe thunderstorm watch; that fact does not change my thinking.

My forecasted high temps for Detroit and for Grand Rapids:
8/9: 86, 82 (medium shower & storm chance; SW Michigan has a better chance of seeing 0.50" or more of rain than SE Michigan. I'm thinking numbers will be disappointing across portions of SE Michigan.)
8/10: 82, 82 (low shower & storm chance early)
8/11: 79, 79 (medium shower & storm chance)
8/12: 81, 81
8/13: 82, 82
8/14: 80, 82
8/15: 79, 82
8/16: 83, 83

GFS model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

8/9: 88, 70 (temps crash in GR due to rainfall)
8/10: 83, 86
8/11: 75, 74 (I don't think the cool down will be this sharp, but we shall see)
8/12: 85, 82
8/13: 81, 83
8/14: 80, 83
8/15: 75, 75
8/16: 75, 78

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

8/9: 84, 87 (the GR temp is too warm)
8/10: 81, 79
8/11: 80, 82
8/12: 80, 81
8/13: 80, 79
8/14: 78, 83
8/15: 79, 86
8/16: 85, 87

[MegaHertz]

That's some really below normal stuff there. Please don't tell me we're gonna start topping off at 60 starting September 1.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

That's some really below normal stuff there. Please don't tell me we're gonna start topping off at 60 starting September 1.

AccuWeather says 75-80 for the next 3 weeks after this one. Don’t have a Matt panic.

[MWmetalhead]

AccuWeather's daily forecasts beyond two weeks are not very useful given lack of reliability. Even their medium range forecasting is suspect at times.

Possible tornado per radar between Delta and Swanton just west of the Toledo metro.

[MWmetalhead]

Bowling Green, OH now has a tornado warning in effect.

[MegaHertz]

That's some really below normal stuff there. Please don't tell me we're gonna start topping off at 60 starting September 1.

AccuWeather says 75-80 for the next 3 weeks after this one. Don’t have a Matt panic.

Someone's always mad at me.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

That's some really below normal stuff there. Please don't tell me we're gonna start topping off at 60 starting September 1.

AccuWeather says 75-80 for the next 3 weeks after this one. Don’t have a Matt panic.

Someone's always mad at me.

I am not mad. Said that tongue in cheek.

[MWmetalhead]

Most of us are finally getting widespread rain!

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Most of us are finally getting widespread rain!

The Weather Channel radar sucks. At 4:30 AM, their future radar said the storm would dissipate before hitting us. Then all of the sudden, wham! We get hit with heavy lightning at 5:30 when I made my way to get the trash out. Fuck the Weather Channel. Also, fuck Fox 2 because they said about the same thing but that it would be spotty showers.

[MWmetalhead]

The pre dawn storms were far more extensive than I was expecting, too. So, my forecast (if made last evening) would've been no better than those outlets.

I was thinking the activity would be confined mostly to the southern border counties + Ohio.

Those areas did see much heavier storms than most of Metro Detroit, but pretty much everyone near and south of M-59 saw healthy rainfall amounts. About six tenths of an inch fell at my place. I could've used much more rainfall, but it's progress at least!

Parts of the Grand Rapids area saw 2 to 4 inches between Sunday afternoon and pre-dawn this morning.

[MWmetalhead]

There is very juicy air creeping back into southern Michigan. Numerous dew point readings are near or above 70!

https://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.asus43.DTX.KDTX.html

[MWmetalhead]

The I-80 corridor is poised to see more severe weather today. I think far SW lower MI as well as the Ohio border counties could also get in on the act.

Toledo has been battered by wave after wave of intense storms the past two days.

[MWmetalhead]

Extremely severe storms over Chicago and NW Indiana.

90 mph and higher gusts likely + tornadoes possible.

South Bend is in the bullseye. Far SW Michigan could experience this activity, too.

[MegaHertz]

Can I get on some of that? I still haven't had a bad ass thunderstorm yet.

[MWmetalhead]

Indiana has 350,000 power outages right now. Ohio has nearly 290,000. They can keep the stormy weather.

I suspect today's storm complex will meet derecho criteria. It is now pummeling the southeast U.S. Incredible forward movement. When the storms entered Indiana from Illinois, the movement was nearly 80 mph.