Week of 6/28

[MWmetalhead]

Confidence is high that a heat wave will grip much of Michigan this coming week. Generally, for our part of the country, a heat wave is defined as three or more consecutive days with high temps at or above 90 degrees.

Detroit likely won't see 90+ temps until Tuesday. Grand Rapids will likely reach 90+ on Monday.

I'll start right off and say the National Weather Disservice forecast showing daytime high temps of 100+ degrees for much of Metro Detroit from Tuesday through Thursday is likely utter bullshit. That agency needs to stop publishing useless daily forecasts. Massive waste of tax dollars.

I will say 100 degrees for Detroit is a legitimate possibility Wednesday. Multiple models have a temp range of 98 to 101 for much of Metro Detroit for mid-late afternoon Wednesday. For Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, most models keep SE Michigan in the mid to upper 90s. Notably, the Euro keeps our top temps in the low to mid 90s on those days.

I will update this thread again Tuesday morning. My forecasted high temps for DTW:
-Today: 82
-Monday: 86
-Tuesday: 93
-Wednesday: 98
-Thursday: 96
-Friday: 95
-Saturday: 89
-Sunday: 86

Grand Rapids will likely be several degrees cooler than Detroit from Tuesday onward due to moderating effects of a SW breeze off Lake Michigan. Similarly, Port Huron and Algonac are likely to be a bit cooler than Detroit due to moderating breeze off Lake St. Clair.

GFS model run from 2AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

6/28: 83, 81
6/29: 81, 92 (Detroit temp is definitely too cool; will probably be 5 degrees warmer)
6/30: 97, 91
7/1: 99, 92
7/2: 98, 92
7/3: 97, 90
7/4: 98, 92 (much of North Carolina is projected to be near 105, which is interesting)
7/5: 97, 84 (I think mid and upper 90s are very unlikely for SE Michigan and the cold front is likely to move through Saturday).

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 8PM last night; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

6/28: 79, 84
6/29: 84, 91
6/30: 91, 90
7/1: 94, 92
7/2: 93, 91
7/3: 91, 88
7/4: 82, 81 (MAJOR divergence from the GFS model starts here)
7/5: 80, 82

Severe Weather: some model data is suggesting NE lower Michigan the Thumb could see a pop-up storm or two that turns severe Monday afternoon. The upper peninsula has a chance for one or more rounds of severe weather from Monday through Wednesday.

Humidity: Both models are showing widespread dew points of 70+ degrees from Monday onward. The GFS keeps juicy humidity in place through July 4 weekend, whereas the Euro dials back the humidity by next weekend (mostly low-mid 60s dew points). I think the duration of 70+ degree dew points is likely overdone. I think dew points in the 65 to 70 degree range will be common from Monday afternoon onward. I think 70 to 75 degree dew points will happen on occasion but probably will not be the rule. These models exaggerate events like this much like they exaggerate snowfall totals multiple days ahead of a developing winter storm.

I think heat indices approaching or topping 100 degrees in the afternoon hours will be common from Tuesday through Friday. Heat indices of ~105 degrees will be possible in spots but probably won't be predominant. (If we see dew points in the low or mid 70s and air temps in the mid 90s or higher, then 105 degree heat indices would be in play.)

[MegaHertz]

Five internet dollars says we will hit 100 on Wednesday.

[Rate This]

Extreme heat watch has been issued until Thursday. I imagine that’ll be a warning in due time. The western half of the state has one already.

[TC Talks]

81 here in TC. Just a wee bit hot on the boat today

[Turkeytop]

London, ON. 4:00 PM

30 deg C = 86 F

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Michigan Storm Chasers say these heat dome hangs around for at least 7-10 days if not 2 weeks. The heat is so widespread that I am very concerned of power grid failure. If the power goes out, I am fucked and likely be sent to the hospital if it is out for a long time.

[Matt]

London, ON. 4:00 PM

30 deg C = 86 F

Fantastic!

[Rate This]

Michigan Storm Chasers say these heat dome hangs around for at least 7-10 days if not 2 weeks. The heat is so widespread that I am very concerned of power grid failure. If the power goes out, I am fucked and likely be sent to the hospital if it is out for a long time.

I hope that doesn’t happen. Seriously that would be terrible.

Looking at the 7 day… all I’m seeing is 90’s… lowest after tomorrows 91 is 93 on Sunday…. You could very well be right.

[Rate This]

Interesting summary of the summer of 1936 which was arguably our worst heat wave.

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/heatwave

1988 and 2011 were pretty bad too. This was written in 1995.

[Turkeytop]

London, ON. 4:00 PM

30 deg C = 86 F

Fantastic!

Don't mock me. I done pretty good for a old guy who doesn't have a ap and still uses a clock to tell the time.

[MegaHertz]

I've got some Gold Bond and Monkey Butt lined up and ready to go.

[Matt]

London, ON. 4:00 PM

30 deg C = 86 F

Fantastic!

Don't mock me. I done pretty good for a old guy who doesn't have a ap and still uses a clock to tell the time.

I wasn't mocking you! The temp is moving in the right direction!

[Turkeytop]

London, ON. 4:00 PM

30 deg C = 86 F

Fantastic!

Don't mock me. I done pretty good for a old guy who doesn't have a ap and still uses a clock to tell the time.

I wasn't mocking you! The temp is moving in the right direction!

Sorry. I misunderstood. It thought it was like you say "fascinating" to matt1's posts.

[Rate This]

London, ON. 4:00 PM

30 deg C = 86 F

Fantastic!

Don't mock me. I done pretty good for a old guy who doesn't have a ap and still uses a clock to tell the time.

I wasn't mocking you! The temp is moving in the right direction!

Just how hot is too hot anyways?

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Michigan Storm Chasers say these heat dome hangs around for at least 7-10 days if not 2 weeks. The heat is so widespread that I am very concerned of power grid failure. If the power goes out, I am fucked and likely be sent to the hospital if it is out for a long time.

I hope that doesn’t happen. Seriously that would be terrible.

Looking at the 7 day… all I’m seeing is 90’s… lowest after tomorrows 91 is 93 on Sunday…. You could very well be right.

If you look at the heat indices map, we are talking about 100+ from the Mississippi River to the Atlantic Ocean, then Chicago and NYC south to the Gulf.