Week of 6/14

[MWmetalhead]

Sneak peak: expect below normal temps from Sunday through at least Tuesday next week.

We might see some low-end severe weather this upcoming Saturday evening.

[MegaHertz]

I saw 67 on Sunday? That's a bit too low for a mid June high.

[MWmetalhead]

Below normal temps are highly likely from today through next weekend for lower Michigan. A cold front is passing through the region this morning. Ahead of it, high temps for the day are occurring as we speak (low 70s). I expect most areas to see temps in the 60s this afternoon.

Although this will be nice for energy bills and for irrigation bills, it won't be so nice for the beach.

My gut feeling is the GFS is overdoing the cool air. I find it hard to believe that in mid June that Grand Rapids will see six of eight days where the mercury fails to reach 65 degrees. It appears quite possible, though, that Grand Rapids will see multiple days where the mercury fails to reach 70.

Despite pretty good model consensus of Grand Rapids seeing multiple days of high temps not cracking 70 degrees over the coming week, all major media outlets there are refusing to forecast any high temps of 70 or below except for today.

GFS model run from 2AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

6/14: 68, 63
6/15: 69, 66
6/16: 67, 64
6/17: 69, 60
6/18: 71, 62
6/19: 66, 64
6/20: 71, 60
6/21: 71, 68

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 2AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

6/14: 67, 67
6/15: 70, 72
6/16: 75, 69
6/17: 74, 71
6/18: 74, 65
6/19: 75, 74
6/20: 75, 74
6/21: 68, 65

[MWmetalhead]

More than 1.5 inches of rain have fallen since 11 AM at my house.

I've gotten more than 5 inches of rainfall in the past week.

Grass was turning yellow in many neighborhood lawns and some trees were showing signs of stress a little over a week ago.

[MWmetalhead]

I've surpassed 2 inches of rainfall on the day.

[BKRPDM]

I was surprised that Southeastern Michigan is under a marginal risk for storms both tomorrow and Wednesday, given that projected dew points will be in the mid to upper 50s…

[MWmetalhead]

Euro model is the winner for today. It definitely outperformed the GFS in forecasting today's high temps for Detroit and Grand Rapids.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Below normal temps are highly likely from today through next weekend for lower Michigan. A cold front is passing through the region this morning. Ahead of it, high temps for the day are occurring as we speak (low 70s). I expect most areas to see temps in the 60s this afternoon.

Although this will be nice for energy bills and for irrigation bills, it won't be so nice for the beach.

My gut feeling is the GFS is overdoing the cool air. I find it hard to believe that in mid June that Grand Rapids will see six of eight days where the mercury fails to reach 65 degrees. It appears quite possible, though, that Grand Rapids will see multiple days where the mercury fails to reach 70.

Despite pretty good model consensus of Grand Rapids seeing multiple days of high temps not cracking 70 degrees over the coming week, all major media outlets there are refusing to forecast any high temps of 70 or below except for today.

GFS model run from 2AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

6/14: 68, 63
6/15: 69, 66
6/16: 67, 64
6/17: 69, 60
6/18: 71, 62
6/19: 66, 64
6/20: 71, 60
6/21: 71, 68

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 2AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

6/14: 67, 67
6/15: 70, 72
6/16: 75, 69
6/17: 74, 71
6/18: 74, 65
6/19: 75, 74
6/20: 75, 74
6/21: 68, 65

I sure wish we had this weather for Warren Pride. Saturday was definitely hot. I will definitely enjoy this week.

[MWmetalhead]

SPC is expecting to issue a weather watch for much of lower Michigan within the next hour. 80 percent probability.

Northern Oakland County has already seen a severe thunderstorm warning this afternoon.

Straight line winds and hail to quarter size are the main threats. A tornado is also possible with the strongest storms.

[MWmetalhead]

SPC is dragging its feet. NE and central lower have seen the strongest activity so far.

No WW yet.

[drop the puck]

NWS in Northern Indiana just issued a thunderstorm watch for our area (Southern Lower Michigan) until 11pm tonight.

[Rate This]

Looks like it could be an interesting night tonight maybe?

[MWmetalhead]

Very unlikely that Michigan sees any severe weather.

We are on the cold side of the system.

Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo have been hovering near 60 degrees for the past few hours. It's a very chilly afternoon in western lower Michigan by June standards.

The GFS model got it right for today.

[TC Talks]

We might be building a fire this evening. It's going to 52⁰.

[MWmetalhead]

The National Weather Disservice forecasted an afternoon high of 71 for Grand Rapids for today with the late morning update.

It's been no warmer than low 60s there this afternoon.

It's amazing how terrible of a job they do.