Week of 6/7

[MWmetalhead]

Buzzboard World HQ received just over 0.4" of rainfall from Friday evening into pre-dawn Saturday morning. It was very much welcomed given the abnormally dry weather of the past few weeks. Two days prior to onset, the GFS did a much better job than the Euro model in placing the heaviest swath and in showing the steep drop-off in totals as one headed north.

The local TV meteorologists who are acting as if temps near or above 90 degrees for multiple days as if it's a sure thing are jumping the gun. There is wide discrepancy in the model data. A couple days near 90 appear likely but far from certain at this point.

The Euro model's latest run has actually completely discarded the notion of a big high pressure dome ever forming over the upper Midwest. It keeps temps near or only slightly above normal and brings none of lower Michigan near 90 at any point over the coming week. It is definitely the outlier amongst the major ensemble models.

Although the National Weather Disservice's official forecast is calling for highs in the low 90s both Wednesday & Thursday for Metro Detroit, they've scaled back Friday's high prediction by about 5 degrees versus last evening's forecast, and they also mention the uncertainty regarding Wednesday & Thursday's temp forecast in this morning's forecast discussion.

I checked a few foreign model runs; here is a quick summary:
-UKMET model still shows 90 or above for much of lower Michigan Wednesday and Thursday.
-ICON model shows a chance at 90 on Wednesday only (within a degree either side of 90 for most areas).
-The Australian model shows a chance at 90 on Wednesday with widespread low & mid 90s Thursday. It then shows a very strong cold front passing through late Thursday night or Friday morning, with much of lower Michigan not even reaching 80 on Friday (portions of northern Michigan might not even reach 70 if this solution verifies).

GFS model run from 2AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

6/7: 76, 77 (probably a few degrees too cool for Detroit; I think a high closer to 80 is more likely)
6/8: 82, 82
6/9: 77, 80
6/10: 95, 88 (the Detroit temp is an outlier compared to surrounding locales; 95 degrees is very unlikely)
6/11: 92, 87
6/12: 84, 74 (the Grand Rapids reading is too low unless rainfall is occurring)
6/13: 84, 80
6/14: 82, 70 (very strong low pressure system is depicted as dragging in very cool air from Canada; western U.P. to northern Minnesota show high temps in the 50s!). If the positioning of the low is correct, SE Michigan could be in a favorable position for severe weather. This is still very far away, and other model solutions differ widely from this one.

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 2AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

6/7: 79, 83 (I think the Grand Rapids reading is a few degrees too warm)
6/8: 84, 85
6/9: 81, 79
6/10: 85, 84
6/11: 83, 79
6/12: 80, 78
6/13: 82, 82
6/14: 83, 79

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I picked up some potential wisdom a long time ago… this is a fun game and nothing more until about 48 hours out. The weather radio was talking heat indices as high as 105 on Wednesday a couple of days ago. Obviously it continues to trend in a downward direction. If I remember the story correctly this is the reason Jerry Hodak resisted doing a 7 day forecast vs. a 5 day one. At some point it’s just a fantasy that usually doesn’t work out and doesn’t add anything in a news setting.

Here it’s pretty neat to read though.

What’s a little disheartening is that for a while there were news stories that the GFS was not predicting very well and its accuracy had deteriorated over time… this was a few years ago, did they ever improve it?

[MWmetalhead]

For Michigan, at least for the past year, I've found the GFS to be generally more reliable then the European model at forecasting temperature and precip patterns.

The European model struggled at times with warmups, cool downs, and precip this past winter and early spring here in Michigan. It performed so poorly at one point that I stopped referring to its output in my posts for a couple weeks.

So, at least for our part of the country, I'd say it is the ECMWF's forecast quality that has gone downhill in recent times.

I will say BOTH models do a poor job with winter storm prediction 72+ hours in advance, with both showing a bias to greatly exaggerate snowfall totals.

As to which of the two models is more accurate can vary depending on geographic region.

Here is what Google AI says:

GFS vs. The European Model (ECMWF)

The GFS is frequently compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, widely considered the gold standard.

Consistency: The European model is generally more consistent and accurate in predicting standard day-to-day weather and large-scale storm tracks.

Speed: The GFS is in the public domain and runs more frequently, allowing meteorologists to get rapid updates during rapidly evolving events.

Strengths: The GFS is highly regarded for forecasting severe weather and extreme events (like tropical cyclones), though its run-to-run consistency can sometimes vary.

Known Biases: Meteorologists rely on the GFS but typically factor in its known quirks, such as...

Temperature: It historically exhibits a high bias on temperatures during hot ridges in the central/southern US, sometimes over-forecasting daytime highs. [Gee, we have an example of this above in the form of its projected high of 95 degrees for Detroit later this week!]

Resolution: It runs at a slightly coarser spatial resolution than regional or European models, meaning it might miss microclimates or highly localized precipitation features.

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For Michigan, at least for the past year, I've found the GFS to be generally more reliable then the European model at forecasting temperature and precip patterns.

The European model struggled at times with warmups, cool downs, and precip this past winter and early spring here in Michigan. It performed so poorly at one point that I stopped referring to its output in my posts for a couple weeks.

So, at least for our part of the country, I'd say it is the ECMWF's forecast quality that has gone downhill in recent times.

I will say BOTH models do a poor job with winter storm prediction 72+ hours in advance, with both showing a bias to greatly exaggerate snowfall totals.

As to which of the two models is more accurate can vary depending on geographic region.

Here is what Google AI says:

GFS vs. The European Model (ECMWF)

The GFS is frequently compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, widely considered the gold standard.

Consistency: The European model is generally more consistent and accurate in predicting standard day-to-day weather and large-scale storm tracks.

Speed: The GFS is in the public domain and runs more frequently, allowing meteorologists to get rapid updates during rapidly evolving events.

Strengths: The GFS is highly regarded for forecasting severe weather and extreme events (like tropical cyclones), though its run-to-run consistency can sometimes vary.

Known Biases: Meteorologists rely on the GFS but typically factor in its known quirks, such as...

Temperature: It historically exhibits a high bias on temperatures during hot ridges in the central/southern US, sometimes over-forecasting daytime highs. [Gee, we have an example of this above in the form of its projected high of 95 degrees for Detroit later this week!]

Resolution: It runs at a slightly coarser spatial resolution than regional or European models, meaning it might miss microclimates or highly localized precipitation features.

Interesting thanks for sharing that. For the record at my place by the airport NWS has a pair of 92’s on the board for Wednesday and Thursday currently.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

For Michigan, at least for the past year, I've found the GFS to be generally more reliable then the European model at forecasting temperature and precip patterns.

The European model struggled at times with warmups, cool downs, and precip this past winter and early spring here in Michigan. It performed so poorly at one point that I stopped referring to its output in my posts for a couple weeks.

So, at least for our part of the country, I'd say it is the ECMWF's forecast quality that has gone downhill in recent times.

I will say BOTH models do a poor job with winter storm prediction 72+ hours in advance, with both showing a bias to greatly exaggerate snowfall totals.

As to which of the two models is more accurate can vary depending on geographic region.

Here is what Google AI says:

GFS vs. The European Model (ECMWF)

The GFS is frequently compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, widely considered the gold standard.

Consistency: The European model is generally more consistent and accurate in predicting standard day-to-day weather and large-scale storm tracks.

Speed: The GFS is in the public domain and runs more frequently, allowing meteorologists to get rapid updates during rapidly evolving events.

Strengths: The GFS is highly regarded for forecasting severe weather and extreme events (like tropical cyclones), though its run-to-run consistency can sometimes vary.

Known Biases: Meteorologists rely on the GFS but typically factor in its known quirks, such as...

Temperature: It historically exhibits a high bias on temperatures during hot ridges in the central/southern US, sometimes over-forecasting daytime highs. [Gee, we have an example of this above in the form of its projected high of 95 degrees for Detroit later this week!]

Resolution: It runs at a slightly coarser spatial resolution than regional or European models, meaning it might miss microclimates or highly localized precipitation features.

I could be wrong, but I believe the Michigan Storm Chasers also primarily use GFS.

[MWmetalhead]

When I watch their videos, they frequently use a developmental model from one of the universities in either Wisconsin or Illinois. I forget the name of the model.

[MWmetalhead]

The ECMWF (Euro) model still shows no 90s anywhere in Michigan.

The GFS isn't as hot as it was in prior runs, now showing no 90s anywhere in Michigan on Wednesday (maybe an isolated spot in the western UP will touch 90), with only portions of Metro Detroit reaching low 90s on Thursday.

The local TV people with compromised integrity will likely continue to go with the hotter solution because it gives them something to talk about to fill air time.

The models tend to exaggerate dew point levels this far out for very warm & humid patterns across the upper midwest. I think heat indices in the low to mid 90s later this week are likely for a significant portion of the state. I'm far from sold that we'll see heat index value at or above 100 anywhere.

[BKRPDM]

Yes - Kevra’s forecast just now seems considerably higher with his 7-day temps compared to TWC and AccuWeather.

[drop the puck]

NWS is still showing a high of 92 for Hillsdale on Wednesday and 90 on Thursday. I suspect you are correct as my weather app shows 89 for Wednesday and only 85 Thursday. Will see if any of this happens.

[MWmetalhead]

A pair of tornado warnings issued (so far) on a day where the National Weather Disservice didn't even have the mid-Michigan region outlooked for a marginal risk of severe weather. The severe weather risk was said to be statistically insignificant.

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A pair of tornado warnings issued (so far) on a day where the National Weather Disservice didn't even have the mid-Michigan region outlooked for a marginal risk of severe weather. The severe weather risk was said to be statistically insignificant.

Great minds think alike.. I started a thread since the real potential is Thursday. I didn’t expect much to happen up there myself.

[MegaHertz]

My wife is in Lawrence, Kansas on business, but gets home tonight.

She called me and said tornado sirens went off and they evacuated to the basement and the tornado was right above them and touched down a few miles away.

No more Kansas bullshit.

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My wife is in Lawrence, Kansas on business, but gets home tonight.

She called me and said tornado sirens went off and they evacuated to the basement and the tornado was right above them and touched down a few miles away.

No more Kansas bullshit.

Yikes, glad she is ok. I think I’ll go there in the winter or something.

[MegaHertz]

My wife is in Lawrence, Kansas on business, but gets home tonight.

She called me and said tornado sirens went off and they evacuated to the basement and the tornado was right above them and touched down a few miles away.

No more Kansas bullshit.

Yikes, glad she is ok. I think I’ll go there in the winter or something.

It's such a common thing there. She didn't mention a storm or anything like that. They just landed at DTW and she's gonna take the Flyer back here. I'm glad she's home and safe.

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My wife is in Lawrence, Kansas on business, but gets home tonight.

She called me and said tornado sirens went off and they evacuated to the basement and the tornado was right above them and touched down a few miles away.

No more Kansas bullshit.

Yikes, glad she is ok. I think I’ll go there in the winter or something.

It's such a common thing there. She didn't mention a storm or anything like that. They just landed at DTW and she's gonna take the Flyer back here. I'm glad she's home and safe.

Amen to that. Tornadoes are fascinating as long as they are over there somewhere.

The ECMWF (Euro) model still shows no 90s anywhere in Michigan.

The GFS isn't as hot as it was in prior runs, now showing no 90s anywhere in Michigan on Wednesday (maybe an isolated spot in the western UP will touch 90), with only portions of Metro Detroit reaching low 90s on Thursday.

The local TV people with compromised integrity will likely continue to go with the hotter solution because it gives them something to talk about to fill air time.

The models tend to exaggerate dew point levels this far out for very warm & humid patterns across the upper midwest. I think heat indices in the low to mid 90s later this week are likely for a significant portion of the state. I'm far from sold that we'll see heat index value at or above 100 anywhere.

NWS says 91 and 93 for Wednesday and Thursday. Heat indexes Thursday approaching 100. It hasn’t really budged from this for days… actually that 93 is UP from yesterdays look at it.