Week of 10/4 - looks pretty nice for early October

[MWmetalhead]

Rural locations are at risk of frost Monday night, otherwise fairly quiet weather pattern appears to be setting up. Aside from Monday, temps should be near normal or above normal in southern Michigan.

Today's afternoon temps overachieved by a good 5+ degrees versus forecast data of a week ago. No complaints! Absolutely gorgeous afternoon here in SE Michigan.

My forecasted high temps for Detroit and for Grand Rapids:

10/4: 73, 71
10/5: 64, 62
10/6: 66, 67
10/7: 75, 72
10/8: 68, 66
10/9: 70, 68
10/10: 72, 77 (low confidence)
10/11: 74, 78 (low confidence)

GFS model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

10/4: 73, 64 (cold front is on GR's doorstep right now)
10/5: 64, 61
10/6: 66, 68
10/7: 76, 68
10/8: 67, 64
10/9: 69, 64
10/10: 71, 76 (this model is projecting 85 for Minneapolis with much below normal temps just north of the MN / Canada border)
10/11: 69, 76 (cut off low pressure system is centered across the central Appalachians)

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 2AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

10/4: 69, 68
10/5: 62, 62
10/6: 65, 67
10/7: 75, 72
10/8: 68 67
10/9: 68, 69
10/10: 71, 79
10/11: 78, 82

Sneak peak for the following week: above normal temps look possible for lower Michigan for several days; the EMCWF model depicts a strong SW upper level flow riding from Texas into the central and eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

[MegaHertz]

I LOVE a warm October day. Almost 80 with the trees the way they are is awesome.