Week of 9/20 - unseasonably cool temps through at least mid-week

[MWmetalhead]

It will likely be Thursday or Friday before Metro Detroit has a shot at reaching 70 degrees.

Upper level troughing from eastern Canada will keep the existing cool air mass in place for several more days. To add insult to injury, some models are depicting a low pressure system crossing across Indiana and Ohio from Tuesday into Wednesday morning, which could lead to another 24 hour period of soggy weather across southern lower MI, s. Hopefully, that outcome does not come to pass!

Much of Michigan will see its first taste of autumn like temperatures this coming week, although there will be some pleasant weather mixed in, too. Much of western and especially northern lower MI is getting a taste of autumn right now (mid-afternoon on Sunday, 9/13). Some isolated low temps in the upper 30s even cannot be ruled out across northern lower Michigan tonight!

Aside from this afternoon or evening, rain chances will exist from Tuesday afternoon into Thursday morning and again on Saturday.

9/19 looks like it could be an active severe weather day for portions of Illinois, Indiana and possibly Ohio.

My forecasted high temps for Detroit and for Grand Rapids:

9/20: 63, 64
9/21: 66, 64
9/22: 65, 65
9/23: 63, 68
9/24: 66, 69
9/25: 70, 71
9/26: 71, 71
9/27: 72, 72

GFS model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

9/20: 61, 60
9/21: 66, 64
9/22: 64. 65 (cutoff low pressure center forms in Iowa, where temps in the 50s are painted)
9/23: 65, 66 (worst weather stays in OH and PA)
9/24: 69, 70
9/25: 70, 72 (another low pressure system forms to our west; could be an active severe wx day across the mid-Mississippi valley)
9/26: 71, 68
9/27: 72, 70

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

9/20: 61, 65 (fail for Grand Rapids)
9/21: 62, 63
9/22: 61, 62
9/23: 64, 67 (this model ejects the low a bit more quickly and positions the coolest weather from Pittsburgh into much of Virginia)
9/24: 65, 68
9/25: 67, 69
9/26: 69, 69 (upper 60s to 70 degrees even reaches the southern shore of Hudson Bay, remarkably)
9/27: 71, 72 (carbon copy of 9/26, except a couple degrees warmer. Still near 70 degrees along the southern shore of Hudson Bay.)

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It will likely be Thursday or Friday before Metro Detroit has a shot at reaching 70 degrees.

Upper level troughing from eastern Canada will keep the existing cool air mass in place for several more days. To add insult to injury, some models are depicting a low pressure system crossing across Indiana and Ohio from Tuesday into Wednesday morning, which could lead to another 24 hour period of soggy weather across southern lower MI, s. Hopefully, that outcome does not come to pass!

Much of Michigan will see its first taste of autumn like temperatures this coming week, although there will be some pleasant weather mixed in, too. Much of western and especially northern lower MI is getting a taste of autumn right now (mid-afternoon on Sunday, 9/13). Some isolated low temps in the upper 30s even cannot be ruled out across northern lower Michigan tonight!

Aside from this afternoon or evening, rain chances will exist from Tuesday afternoon into Thursday morning and again on Saturday.

9/19 looks like it could be an active severe weather day for portions of Illinois, Indiana and possibly Ohio.

My forecasted high temps for Detroit and for Grand Rapids:

9/20: 63, 64
9/21: 66, 64
9/22: 65, 65
9/23: 63, 68
9/24: 66, 69
9/25: 70, 71
9/26: 71, 71
9/27: 72, 72

GFS model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

9/20: 61, 60
9/21: 66, 64
9/22: 64. 65 (cutoff low pressure center forms in Iowa, where temps in the 50s are painted)
9/23: 65, 66 (worst weather stays in OH and PA)
9/24: 69, 70
9/25: 70, 72 (another low pressure system forms to our west; could be an active severe wx day across the mid-Mississippi valley)
9/26: 71, 68
9/27: 72, 70

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

9/20: 61, 65 (fail for Grand Rapids)
9/21: 62, 63
9/22: 61, 62
9/23: 64, 67 (this model ejects the low a bit more quickly and positions the coolest weather from Pittsburgh into much of Virginia)
9/24: 65, 68
9/25: 67, 69
9/26: 69, 69 (upper 60s to 70 degrees even reaches the southern shore of Hudson Bay, remarkably)
9/27: 71, 72 (carbon copy of 9/26, except a couple degrees warmer. Still near 70 degrees along the southern shore of Hudson Bay.)

Much of the metro area is in a drought now… so we actually really need it to come to pass. It could be a tad warmer while it does it though. But being dry you want a gentle 24 hour rain rather than 2 inches in an hour from some crazy thunderstorm.

[MegaHertz]

Gimme 75 back.

[MWmetalhead]

It will likely be Thursday or Friday before Metro Detroit has a shot at reaching 70 degrees.

Upper level troughing from eastern Canada will keep the existing cool air mass in place for several more days. To add insult to injury, some models are depicting a low pressure system crossing across Indiana and Ohio from Tuesday into Wednesday morning, which could lead to another 24 hour period of soggy weather across southern lower MI, s. Hopefully, that outcome does not come to pass!

Much of Michigan will see its first taste of autumn like temperatures this coming week, although there will be some pleasant weather mixed in, too. Much of western and especially northern lower MI is getting a taste of autumn right now (mid-afternoon on Sunday, 9/13). Some isolated low temps in the upper 30s even cannot be ruled out across northern lower Michigan tonight!

Aside from this afternoon or evening, rain chances will exist from Tuesday afternoon into Thursday morning and again on Saturday.

9/19 looks like it could be an active severe weather day for portions of Illinois, Indiana and possibly Ohio.

My forecasted high temps for Detroit and for Grand Rapids:

9/20: 63, 64
9/21: 66, 64
9/22: 65, 65
9/23: 63, 68
9/24: 66, 69
9/25: 70, 71
9/26: 71, 71
9/27: 72, 72

GFS model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

9/20: 61, 60
9/21: 66, 64
9/22: 64. 65 (cutoff low pressure center forms in Iowa, where temps in the 50s are painted)
9/23: 65, 66 (worst weather stays in OH and PA)
9/24: 69, 70
9/25: 70, 72 (another low pressure system forms to our west; could be an active severe wx day across the mid-Mississippi valley)
9/26: 71, 68
9/27: 72, 70

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

9/20: 61, 65 (fail for Grand Rapids)
9/21: 62, 63
9/22: 61, 62
9/23: 64, 67 (this model ejects the low a bit more quickly and positions the coolest weather from Pittsburgh into much of Virginia)
9/24: 65, 68
9/25: 67, 69
9/26: 69, 69 (upper 60s to 70 degrees even reaches the southern shore of Hudson Bay, remarkably)
9/27: 71, 72 (carbon copy of 9/26, except a couple degrees warmer. Still near 70 degrees along the southern shore of Hudson Bay.)

Much of the metro area is in a drought now… so we actually really need it to come to pass. It could be a tad warmer while it does it though. But being dry you want a gentle 24 hour rain rather than 2 inches in an hour from some crazy thunderstorm.

The drought has completely ended in my area. The grass is green as can be. Gigantic turnaround from late August.

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It will likely be Thursday or Friday before Metro Detroit has a shot at reaching 70 degrees.

Upper level troughing from eastern Canada will keep the existing cool air mass in place for several more days. To add insult to injury, some models are depicting a low pressure system crossing across Indiana and Ohio from Tuesday into Wednesday morning, which could lead to another 24 hour period of soggy weather across southern lower MI, s. Hopefully, that outcome does not come to pass!

Much of Michigan will see its first taste of autumn like temperatures this coming week, although there will be some pleasant weather mixed in, too. Much of western and especially northern lower MI is getting a taste of autumn right now (mid-afternoon on Sunday, 9/13). Some isolated low temps in the upper 30s even cannot be ruled out across northern lower Michigan tonight!

Aside from this afternoon or evening, rain chances will exist from Tuesday afternoon into Thursday morning and again on Saturday.

9/19 looks like it could be an active severe weather day for portions of Illinois, Indiana and possibly Ohio.

My forecasted high temps for Detroit and for Grand Rapids:

9/20: 63, 64
9/21: 66, 64
9/22: 65, 65
9/23: 63, 68
9/24: 66, 69
9/25: 70, 71
9/26: 71, 71
9/27: 72, 72

GFS model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

9/20: 61, 60
9/21: 66, 64
9/22: 64. 65 (cutoff low pressure center forms in Iowa, where temps in the 50s are painted)
9/23: 65, 66 (worst weather stays in OH and PA)
9/24: 69, 70
9/25: 70, 72 (another low pressure system forms to our west; could be an active severe wx day across the mid-Mississippi valley)
9/26: 71, 68
9/27: 72, 70

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

9/20: 61, 65 (fail for Grand Rapids)
9/21: 62, 63
9/22: 61, 62
9/23: 64, 67 (this model ejects the low a bit more quickly and positions the coolest weather from Pittsburgh into much of Virginia)
9/24: 65, 68
9/25: 67, 69
9/26: 69, 69 (upper 60s to 70 degrees even reaches the southern shore of Hudson Bay, remarkably)
9/27: 71, 72 (carbon copy of 9/26, except a couple degrees warmer. Still near 70 degrees along the southern shore of Hudson Bay.)

Much of the metro area is in a drought now… so we actually really need it to come to pass. It could be a tad warmer while it does it though. But being dry you want a gentle 24 hour rain rather than 2 inches in an hour from some crazy thunderstorm.

The drought has completely ended in my area. The grass is green as can be. Gigantic turnaround from late August.

The grass pretty easily recovers… the question is how much of a rainfall deficit we have. My grass perked up too but I’m not gonna get too upset if it rains for a day. I’m looking forward to seeing the next drought monitor which is due to come out tomorrow. It was at a moderate level as of last Tuesday for the entire Metro area. I doubt a couple of decent rains cures that in a week.

[bmw]

the question is how much of a rainfall deficit we have...

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?MI

[MWmetalhead]

That goofy map showed no drought when everything was yellowing and shriveling, and now 100% of each blade of grass is pure green, my neighborhood has received 7 inches of rain since September 1, and the stupid map shows us in "moderate drought."

Sorry, not buying it.

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That goofy map showed no drought when everything was yellowing and shriveling, and now 100% of each blade of grass is pure green, my neighborhood has received 7 inches of rain since September 1, and the stupid map shows us in "moderate drought."

Sorry, not buying it.

Your grass being green is irrelevant since grass becomes dormant and that’s why it turns brown absent meaningful rainfall. It’s plenty alive underneath and perks up with only a moderate rain. How are we doing on year to date rainfall vs. what the historical average is this time of year would be the question because that’s the standard that determines the drought status. The grass will be plenty green a long time before we hit average.

At 7 inches you’re ahead of Metro by 4 inches or so. It’s received a bit over 3 this month as of this mornings climate summary.

[bmw]

You gotta remember - the drought map looks at a number of different factors (precip deficits or surplus, wind/temperature, soil moisture, vegetation conditions, etc. So a burst of rain doesn't magically erase drought conditions, or does a dry spell suddenly worsen them. Think of this more of a rolling average.

[MWmetalhead]

73 at Churchill, Manitoba, the polar bear capital, right now.

59 degrees outside my house. 53 in Alpena.

Michigan and Minnesota have the shittiest weather of the entire lower 48 right now. Wisconsin trails closely behind.

[TC Talks]

61 and sunny in Traverse City. Trying for a beach day Thursday.