Week of 9/13 - a taste of fall for many of us

[MWmetalhead]

The local NWDS office is calling for highs of 65 to 70 for most of SE Michigan today.

As is often the case, I disagree with their forecast. I think many areas won't get past the low 60s.

It'll be in the low 90s in Louisville, KY today and near 100 in Nashville for high temps.

[MWmetalhead]

Firecracker Dave on channel 7 predicted widespread 1+ inch rainfall totals for Metro Detroit today on last night's newscast.

Only a few hundredths of an inch has fallen at my house so far.

He is the worst forecaster in the market from an accuracy standpoint.

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Firecracker Dave on channel 7 predicted widespread 1+ inch rainfall totals for Metro Detroit today on last night's newscast.

Only a few hundredths of an inch has fallen at my house so far.

He is the worst forecaster in the market from an accuracy standpoint.

I’d like to see what the batch out in Wisconsin does later tonight if it even gets here before midnight… this round was definitely not as advertised. It kind of fell apart as it got closer.

[MWmetalhead]

I had more in the gauge than I thought. Rain has ended for now, except for some mist or drizzle. A brief light shower may reach me within the next 20 minutes.

As of 10 minutes ago, 0.35 inches of rainfall was in my rain gauge.

[MWmetalhead]

Much of Michigan will see its first taste of autumn like temperatures this coming week, although there will be some pleasant weather mixed in, too. Much of western and especially northern lower MI is getting a taste of autumn right now (mid-afternoon on Sunday, 9/13). Some isolated low temps in the upper 30s even cannot be ruled out across northern lower Michigan tonight!

Aside from this afternoon or evening, rain chances will exist from Tuesday afternoon into Thursday morning and again on Saturday.

9/19 looks like it could be an active severe weather day for portions of Illinois, Indiana and possibly Ohio.

My forecasted high temps for Detroit and for Grand Rapids:

9/13: 80, 72 (already reached)
9/14: 72, 69
9/15: 79, 74
9/16: 74, 70
9/17: 74, 74
9/18: 73, 73
9/19: 72, 67
9/20: 67, 65

GFS model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

9/13: 79, 57 (no, that isn't a typo. GFS is forecasting a cold rain at 5PM. It isn't completely absurd; it is rainy and 60 at Muskegon right now. Low or mid 60s are probably what it'll be in GR at 5PM.)
9/14: 72, 74
9/15: 77, 69. Very tight thermal gradient from the Great Lakes to the Ohio River; 90+ in central Indiana.
9/16: 77, 65
9/17: 74, 76
9/18: 75, 76
9/19: 77, 71 (strong warm front makes it to about I-80). GFS shows heavy rainfall across much of lower Michigan.
9/20: 64, 62 (front pushes south as a cold front)

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

9/13: 79, 70
9/14: 67, 69
9/15: 77, 74
9/16: 71, 71
9/17: 71, 71
9/18: 70, 70
9/19: 67, 61 (this model hangs up the warm front about 100 miles farther south, keeping lower Michigan in very cool air)
9/20: 68, 64

The Euro output from last Sunday morning definitely outperformed the GFS.

GFS was too warm on temps over multiple days.

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Half inch here by the airport.

[MWmetalhead]

Ditto for me.