2024 General Election Polling Thread

[Rate This]

How can it possibly be so close?

By using 2020’s electorate as a model. But that was when Biden was in and Democratic enthusiasm wasn’t close to what it is now. The polls are very likely undercounting her and overcounting him. Add it up and I bet it isn’t close.

Chuckling like Kamalahahahaha. Biden got 81 Million votes way more than Obama 1.0 which he got lots of cross over votes. No way she gets anywhere 81 million votes.

With 3 seconds of thought and no study of the trends or data why didn’t I just ask you. It would have saved 43 pages of effort at understanding the reality of the race. Why didn’t I think of that?

[Honeyman]

Heard a Wisconsin Democrat official speaking today saying to be wary of the early returns from there. Tons of early voting, especially in the Milwaukee area that gets counted after same day voting. Don't be overly concerned if the facist is leading there early in the evening.

[Nightfly 2.0]

How can it possibly be so close?

By using 2020’s electorate as a model. But that was when Biden was in and Democratic enthusiasm wasn’t close to what it is now. The polls are very likely undercounting her and overcounting him. Add it up and I bet it isn’t close.

Saw an interview with Ann Selzer of the infamous Iowa Harris +3 poll and one of the things that was mentioned is Selzer doesn't rely on previous poll data all that much. She's of a mind that things change too much over time and candidates that the previous election historic data isn't of much value. Apparently she develops her own electorate profile and model based on current conditions.

One example was doing data mining on +65 voters. Traditionally they are very conservative and their voting doesn't vary much between male and female voters. She found that this year in Iowa that couldn't have been more wrong. Women 65+ are voting Harris by double digits. She's also tracking well with older men. This is a demographic that reliably shows up at the polls. She admitted it surprised here as well and re-ran the models a number of times to check for errors.

Granted, she's only doing polls for one state and has been for years so it's hard to say if her method could be rolled out elsewhere but you have to admit her track record is hard to argue.

[Rate This]

Heard a Wisconsin Democrat official speaking today saying to be wary of the early returns from there. Tons of early voting, especially in the Milwaukee area that gets counted after same day voting. Don't be overly concerned if the facist is leading there early in the evening.

When we get a results thread going the first post kind of setting the stage needs to include cautions about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Both are in the red mirage boat where the others have corrected it.

[Turkeytop]

When we get a results thread going the first post kind of setting the stage needs to include cautions about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Both are in the red mirage boat where the others have corrected it.

If there is a red mirage, Trump will be demanding they stop counting right then.

[Rate This]

When we get a results thread going the first post kind of setting the stage needs to include cautions about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Both are in the red mirage boat where the others have corrected it.

If there is a red mirage, Trump will be demanding they stop counting right then.

I expect around 10pm or so that’s exactly what’s gonna happen and every batch of absentee ballots they count because they’ll come in waves will be labeled fraud and contested with lawsuits. The legislatures in those two states are Republican controlled to the point that preprocessing was proposed and they flat refused to take it up for exactly this purpose. Bank on them pulling some bullshit on election night.

[Honeyman]

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/h ... ction-poll

[Mega Hertz]

I may or may not be around here much the next few days. My head is creamed corn and my stomach is flipping more than 106.7. I won't be able to escape it, but at least I won't have to see the bullshit and mental gymnastics should things go south for Trump.

[Rate This]

I may or may not be around here much the next few days. My head is creamed corn and my stomach is flipping more than 106.7. I won't be able to escape it, but at least I won't have to see the bullshit and mental gymnastics should things go south for Trump.

Are you gonna watch any returns or are you headed for the hills on that aspect?

[Mega Hertz]

I may or may not be around here much the next few days. My head is creamed corn and my stomach is flipping more than 106.7. I won't be able to escape it, but at least I won't have to see the bullshit and mental gymnastics should things go south for Trump.

Are you gonna watch any returns or are you headed for the hills on that aspect?

I'm gonna be like John Lithgow in Twilight Zone The Movie. I'm gonna keep being tempted and tempted and eventually I'm gonna have to look. I just hope I don't have the same reaction.

[Rate This]

I may or may not be around here much the next few days. My head is creamed corn and my stomach is flipping more than 106.7. I won't be able to escape it, but at least I won't have to see the bullshit and mental gymnastics should things go south for Trump.

Are you gonna watch any returns or are you headed for the hills on that aspect?

I'm gonna be like John Lithgow in Twilight Zone The Movie. I'm gonna keep being tempted and tempted and eventually I'm gonna have to look. I just hope I don't have the same reaction.

I’m gonna start a results thread tonight with some things to expect unless somebody beats me to it. Reading that might make you feel a little better about some of what you see.

[Honeyman]

I may or may not be around here much the next few days. My head is creamed corn and my stomach is flipping more than 106.7. I won't be able to escape it, but at least I won't have to see the bullshit and mental gymnastics should things go south for Trump.

Are you gonna watch any returns or are you headed for the hills on that aspect?

I'm gonna be like John Lithgow in Twilight Zone The Movie. I'm gonna keep being tempted and tempted and eventually I'm gonna have to look. I just hope I don't have the same reaction.

I’m gonna start a results thread tonight with some things to expect unless somebody beats me to it. Reading that might make you feel a little better about some of what you see.

Looking forward to it, Rate. I'm in your camp now and getting optimistic about everything I've seen, especially in the past week. I'm hoping tomorrow might be the Super Bowl, Final Four, and World Series all rolled into one evening.

[Rate This]

I may or may not be around here much the next few days. My head is creamed corn and my stomach is flipping more than 106.7. I won't be able to escape it, but at least I won't have to see the bullshit and mental gymnastics should things go south for Trump.

Are you gonna watch any returns or are you headed for the hills on that aspect?

I'm gonna be like John Lithgow in Twilight Zone The Movie. I'm gonna keep being tempted and tempted and eventually I'm gonna have to look. I just hope I don't have the same reaction.

I’m gonna start a results thread tonight with some things to expect unless somebody beats me to it. Reading that might make you feel a little better about some of what you see.

Looking forward to it, Rate. I'm in your camp now and getting optimistic about everything I've seen, especially in the past week. I'm hoping tomorrow might be the Super Bowl, Final Four, and World Series all rolled into one evening.

That would be phenomenal… there was actually a poll that didn’t get much attention out of Kansas of all places with the race within 5 for much of the same gender split reasons as that Iowa shocker so we may see some real “what???” Things happen tomorrow.

[Mega Hertz]

I've been seeing something floating around Facebook about Trump wanting the race called by 9pm or else. Anyone else heard that?

[Honeyman]

I may or may not be around here much the next few days. My head is creamed corn and my stomach is flipping more than 106.7. I won't be able to escape it, but at least I won't have to see the bullshit and mental gymnastics should things go south for Trump.

Are you gonna watch any returns or are you headed for the hills on that aspect?

I'm gonna be like John Lithgow in Twilight Zone The Movie. I'm gonna keep being tempted and tempted and eventually I'm gonna have to look. I just hope I don't have the same reaction.

I’m gonna start a results thread tonight with some things to expect unless somebody beats me to it. Reading that might make you feel a little better about some of what you see.

Looking forward to it, Rate. I'm in your camp now and getting optimistic about everything I've seen, especially in the past week. I'm hoping tomorrow might be the Super Bowl, Final Four, and World Series all rolled into one evening.

That would be phenomenal… there was actually a poll that didn’t get much attention out of Kansas of all places with the race within 5 for much of the same gender split reasons as that Iowa shocker so we may see some real “what???” Things happen tomorrow.

I'm going purely positive in my thinking. Kamala wins big, Dems take back the house, keep the Senate, Cruz loses. Shit, if the Lions can be Super Bowl favorites, why not?