2024 General Election Polling Thread

[Matt]

Odds and EV Predictions….

538:
Trump 53% Chance
Harris 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Harris 55
Trump 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 318 EV’s
Harris 220 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 270 EV’s
Harris 251 EV’s
Tied 17 EV’s (Arizona, Nevada)

Did you mix up the predictit numbers? Currently, it's Trump 56-50.

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Odds and EV Predictions….

538:
Trump 53% Chance
Harris 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Harris 55
Trump 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 318 EV’s
Harris 220 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 270 EV’s
Harris 251 EV’s
Tied 17 EV’s (Arizona, Nevada)

Did you mix up the predictit numbers? Currently, it's Trump 56-50.

Good catch… I was pretty beat last night… I’m surprised that was my only goof.

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Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 48% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 54
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 309 EV’s
Harris 229 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 270 EV’s
Harris 262 EV’s
6 Tied (Nevada)
*Their model assumes Nebraska and Maine vote as a state rather than going after breaking out the EV’s each will take. Once you do that… it’s 269-269 assuming Nevada goes Harris.

[Matt]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 48% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 54
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 309 EV’s
Harris 229 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 270 EV’s
Harris 262 EV’s
6 Tied (Nevada)
*Their model assumes Nebraska and Maine vote as a state rather than going after breaking out the EV’s each will take. Once you do that… it’s 269-269 assuming Nevada goes Harris.

If Arizona goes Harris, Nevada will also.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 48% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 54
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 309 EV’s
Harris 229 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 270 EV’s
Harris 262 EV’s
6 Tied (Nevada)
*Their model assumes Nebraska and Maine vote as a state rather than going after breaking out the EV’s each will take. Once you do that… it’s 269-269 assuming Nevada goes Harris.

If Arizona goes Harris, Nevada will also.

That was my assumption as well. The early indicators really aren’t looking very good for him too. Add in their heavy lean into the fraud stuff already and they know it and see the writing on the wall and it says “you ain’t gonna pass go and collect $200 this way.”

[Honeyman]

Just checked predictit....2 points as of 11:19 PDT

EDIT: 1 point as of 1:10 PDT

[Nightfly 2.0]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 48% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 54
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 309 EV’s
Harris 229 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 270 EV’s
Harris 262 EV’s
6 Tied (Nevada)
*Their model assumes Nebraska and Maine vote as a state rather than going after breaking out the EV’s each will take. Once you do that… it’s 269-269 assuming Nevada goes Harris.

Non-judgmental question: Why is there coverage of prediction markets?

Lately I've seen a fair amount of coverage drilling down why prediction markets are poor indicators of anything other than where someone/something of means can move a data point if they are so inclined. I watched a round table of a bunch of old financial guys (the kind of senior folks who've seen all manner of shit over the years) explain why PM's really don't mean anything.

Granted, I wasn't immune from citing a PM when Harris came onboard as the candidate, but I used it more of an amusement/annoyance to a particular. So are you just including them as a data point because it's a data point?

Again, no criticism I'm just genuinely curious. Thanks!

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 48% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 54
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 309 EV’s
Harris 229 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 270 EV’s
Harris 262 EV’s
6 Tied (Nevada)
*Their model assumes Nebraska and Maine vote as a state rather than going after breaking out the EV’s each will take. Once you do that… it’s 269-269 assuming Nevada goes Harris.

Non-judgmental question: Why is there coverage of prediction markets?

Lately I've seen a fair amount of coverage drilling down why prediction markets are poor indicators of anything other than where someone/something of means can move a data point if they are so inclined. I watched a round table of a bunch of old financial guys (the kind of senior folks who've seen all manner of shit over the years) explain why PM's really don't mean anything.

Granted, I wasn't immune from citing a PM when Harris came onboard as the candidate, but I used it more of an amusement/annoyance to a particular. So are you just including them as a data point because it's a data point?

Again, no criticism I'm just genuinely curious. Thanks!

Something Beemer regularly cited previously. I figured it added to the mix.

[bmw]

What is fascinating (to use Matt's word) is the large discrepancy between the different prediction markets. Polymarket has it 60-40 in favor of Trump while PredictIt has it a coin flip. Prediction markets are certainly not free from manipulation attempts, and it is debatable which one is easier to manipulate (PI where you can only bet $850 per contract or Polymarket where it is unlimited). But manipulation aside, these markets rely on the theory of wisdom of crowds. So their ability to predict something is only as good as the crowd putting their money where their mouth is.

PredictIt favored Biden by about a 65-35 margin in the days leading up to the 2020 election. Hillary was favored about 75-25 in 2016.

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What is fascinating (to use Matt's word) is the large discrepancy between the different prediction markets. Polymarket has it 60-40 in favor of Trump while PredictIt has it a coin flip. Prediction markets are certainly not free from manipulation attempts, and it is debatable which one is easier to manipulate (PI where you can only bet $850 per contract or Polymarket where it is unlimited). But manipulation aside, these markets rely on the theory of wisdom of crowds. So their ability to predict something is only as good as the crowd putting their money where their mouth is.

PredictIt favored Biden by about a 65-35 margin in the days leading up to the 2020 election. Hillary was favored about 75-25 in 2016.

Polymarket has a few European folks who support Trump who have gone nuts buying shares. They also have tons upon tons of money to burn so if they lose it’s not a big deal for them. It’s just like the Republican flooding of the zone with junk polls. All an attempt to make Trump look stronger than he is. We saw the same polls in 2022… that’s how RCP got to 54 seats. Moving aggregators and prediction markets is the entire point.

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November 1

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

EPIC-MRA / Detroit Free Press
Michigan:
Harris 48
Trump 45
Kennedy 3
Stein 3
West 1

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 47
Rogers 42

Noble Predictive Insights
Arizona:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Emerson
Nevada:
Harris 48
Trump 47

Washington Post
Pennsylvania:
Harris 48
Trump 47

USA Today / Suffolk
Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Roanoke College
Virginia:
Harris 51
Trump 41
West 2
Oliver 2
Stein 1

KOB-TV Albuquerque / Survey USA
New Mexico:
Harris 50
Trump 44

Keating Research
Colorado:
Harris 53
Trump 41

The Citadel
Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 47

South Carolina:
Trump 54
Harris 42

Susquehanna*
Nevada:
Trump 50
Harris 44

Rasmussen Reports*
Nevada:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Harris 47

North Carolina:
Trump 50
Harris 47

TIPP*
National:
Trump 49
Harris 48

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Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 50% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 52
Harris 52

Virtual Tout:
Trump 270 EV’s
Harris 268 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 262 EV’s
Trump 251 EV’s
Tied 25 EV’s (Pennsylvania and Nevada)

[Honeyman]

Kamala winning Iowa?

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 354033007/

[Matt]

Kamala winning Iowa?

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 354033007/

You beat me by seconds - it looks like Iowa is in play: https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/02/politics ... index.html

[Honeyman]

FWIW, Harris leading by 6 points on predictit. Big move the past few days....