All accepted new registrations through 8:00a ET on April 26, 2025 have been activated. Terms of use are available here: ucp.php?mode=terms

Thank you.
Announcements:
1. There is a known issue with Gmail refusing to deliver PHP server-generated email messages. What this means is you will not receive account activation messages or password reset links if using Gmail. Please consider registering your account using a service other than Gmail. Also, please be aware server-generated email messages may appear in your Spam or Junk email folder as opposed to your normal inbox.

2. The Buzzboard is available on the Tapatalk mobile app! Visit the Google Play store on Android or the App Store on iOS to download it. Keep track of your favorite topics, create new threads, and more!

2024 General Election Polling Thread

Debate and discussion of current events and political issues across the U.S. and throughout the World. Be forewarned -- this forum is NOT for the intellectually weak or those of you with thin skins. Don't come crying to me if you become the subject of ridicule. **Board Administrator reserves the right to revoke posting privileges based on my sole discretion**
Post Reply
User avatar
MotorCityRadioFreak
Posts: 7759
Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:26 am
Location: Warren, MI

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak »

Rate This wrote: Thu Oct 17, 2024 1:26 am I guess we'll redo the 15th so we have it too. For the 16th there is a FOX poll showing Trump +2 nationally BUT Harris leads by 6 among swing state voters in the 7 contested states as a whole. They did not break it down by state. Meaning if their poll were right he would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.

October 15

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Michigan:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 46

MRG
Michigan:
Harris 45
Trump 44
Kennedy 3
Stein 2
Oliver 1
West 1

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 46
Rogers 41

University of Houston
Texas:
Trump 51
Harris 46

Trafalgar Group
Nevada:
Harris 46
Trump 45

North Carolina:
Trump 47
Harris 45

Insider Advantage
Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Rasmussen Reports
Trump 51
Harris 46

Morning Consult
National:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Reuters / Ipsos
Harris 47
Trump 44

October 16

Beemer Swing States Today:
Georgia (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)

Quinnipiac
North Carolina:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Georgia:
Trump 52
Harris 46

KING-TV Seattle / Survey USA
Washington State:
Harris 57
Trump 35

Noble Predictive Insights
Utah:
Trump 54
Harris 38

The Hill / Emerson
California:
Harris 59
Trump 35

WCVB-TV Boston / Amherst
Massachusetts:
Harris 56
Trump 30
Stein 2
Oliver 1

Alaska Survey Research
Alaska:
Trump 54
Harris 46

Marquette
National:
Trump 50
Harris 50

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 51
Republicans 49

Marist
National:
Harris 52
Trump 47

TIPP
National:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Economist / YouGov
National:
Harris 49
Trump 45

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47
Republicans 46

FOX News
Trump 50
Harris 48

Rasmussen Reports
Trump 48
Harris 47
A few questions:

1. Who is MRG?
2 Rhetorical question but: how can she be up 3 in NC and down 6 in Georgia. There’s no way the gulf is 9 points between those two states.
3. Who is TIPP?
They/them, non-binary and proud.

NEVER EVER COMPLY WITH FASCISM!!!

The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: Thu Oct 17, 2024 1:52 am
Rate This wrote: Thu Oct 17, 2024 1:26 am I guess we'll redo the 15th so we have it too. For the 16th there is a FOX poll showing Trump +2 nationally BUT Harris leads by 6 among swing state voters in the 7 contested states as a whole. They did not break it down by state. Meaning if their poll were right he would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.

October 15

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Michigan:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 46

MRG
Michigan:
Harris 45
Trump 44
Kennedy 3
Stein 2
Oliver 1
West 1

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 46
Rogers 41

University of Houston
Texas:
Trump 51
Harris 46

Trafalgar Group
Nevada:
Harris 46
Trump 45

North Carolina:
Trump 47
Harris 45

Insider Advantage
Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Rasmussen Reports
Trump 51
Harris 46

Morning Consult
National:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Reuters / Ipsos
Harris 47
Trump 44

October 16

Beemer Swing States Today:
Georgia (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)

Quinnipiac
North Carolina:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Georgia:
Trump 52
Harris 46

KING-TV Seattle / Survey USA
Washington State:
Harris 57
Trump 35

Noble Predictive Insights
Utah:
Trump 54
Harris 38

The Hill / Emerson
California:
Harris 59
Trump 35

WCVB-TV Boston / Amherst
Massachusetts:
Harris 56
Trump 30
Stein 2
Oliver 1

Alaska Survey Research
Alaska:
Trump 54
Harris 46

Marquette
National:
Trump 50
Harris 50

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 51
Republicans 49

Marist
National:
Harris 52
Trump 47

TIPP
National:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Economist / YouGov
National:
Harris 49
Trump 45

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47
Republicans 46

FOX News
Trump 50
Harris 48

Rasmussen Reports
Trump 48
Harris 47
A few questions:

1. Who is MRG?
2 Rhetorical question but: how can she be up 3 in NC and down 6 in Georgia. There’s no way the gulf is 9 points between those two states.
3. Who is TIPP?
1. Marketing Resource Group.

2. This is the second time in a row Quinnipiac has had at least one state with a result that didn’t make sense no matter which way you tilted your head.

3. The polling arm of something called TechnoMetrica. TIPP is an acronym for TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics.
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Harris 54% Chance
Trump 46% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 54
Harris 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 290 EV’s
Harris 248 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 276 EV’s
Trump 252 EV’s
Tied 10 (Wisconsin)
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

October 17

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)

MNS / Mitchell Research
Michigan:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 47
Rogers 43

Rasmussen Reports
Michigan:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 44
Rogers 44

Wisconsin:
Trump 49
Harris 47

CBS News
Arizona:
Trump 51
Harris 48

UMass Lowell
Pennsylvania:
Harris 46
Trump 45

New Hampshire:
Harris 50
Trump 41

Carolina Journal / Cygnal
North Carolina:
Trump 47
Harris 47
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
Matt
Posts: 12557
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Home of the National Champions

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Matt »

America on Hiatus 1/20/25 - 1/20/29

Foxtrot
Delta
Tango
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 315 EV’s
Harris 223 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 256 EV’s
Harris 251 EV’s
Tied 31 EV’s (Michigan and North Carolina)
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

October 18

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

Morning Consult
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 48
Rogers 41

Wisconsin:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Pennsylvania:
Harris 49
Trump 48

North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Arizona:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Nevada:
Harris 49
Trump 45

PPP
Utah:
Trump 54
Harris 38

East Carolina University
Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 46

American Greatness / TIPP
Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 48

University of Texas
Texas:
Trump 51
Harris 46

Rasmussen Reports
Ohio:
Trump 51
Harris 44

National:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Emerson
National:
Harris 50
Trump 49

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48
Republicans 45

Harris X
National:
Harris 51
Trump 49

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 43
Democrats 42

TIPP
National:
Harris 49
Trump 47
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
User avatar
MotorCityRadioFreak
Posts: 7759
Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:26 am
Location: Warren, MI

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak »

Rate This wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2024 10:22 pm Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 315 EV’s
Harris 223 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 256 EV’s
Harris 251 EV’s
Tied 31 EV’s (Michigan and North Carolina)
Shit.
They/them, non-binary and proud.

NEVER EVER COMPLY WITH FASCISM!!!

The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: Sat Oct 19, 2024 2:42 am
Rate This wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2024 10:22 pm Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 315 EV’s
Harris 223 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 256 EV’s
Harris 251 EV’s
Tied 31 EV’s (Michigan and North Carolina)
Shit.
Something isn’t right. Listening to people discuss the underlying data it doesn’t match. Just stay the course.
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
User avatar
MotorCityRadioFreak
Posts: 7759
Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:26 am
Location: Warren, MI

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak »

Rate This wrote: Sat Oct 19, 2024 8:04 am
MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: Sat Oct 19, 2024 2:42 am
Rate This wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2024 10:22 pm Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 315 EV’s
Harris 223 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 256 EV’s
Harris 251 EV’s
Tied 31 EV’s (Michigan and North Carolina)
Shit.
Something isn’t right. Listening to people discuss the underlying data it doesn’t match. Just stay the course.
It's not Predict it I am worried about. It is 538.
They/them, non-binary and proud.

NEVER EVER COMPLY WITH FASCISM!!!

The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: Sat Oct 19, 2024 6:25 pm
Rate This wrote: Sat Oct 19, 2024 8:04 am
MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: Sat Oct 19, 2024 2:42 am
Rate This wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2024 10:22 pm Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 315 EV’s
Harris 223 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 256 EV’s
Harris 251 EV’s
Tied 31 EV’s (Michigan and North Carolina)
Shit.
Something isn’t right. Listening to people discuss the underlying data it doesn’t match. Just stay the course.
It's not Predict it I am worried about. It is 538.
The disclaimer they give is that the 51-49 Trump and a 56-44 Harris are not materially different. It’s a coin flip.
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 52% Chance
Harris 48% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 56
Harris 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 315 EV’s
Harris 223 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 256 EV’s
Harris 251 EV’s
Tied 31 EV’s (Michigan and North Carolina)
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

October 19

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

Atlas Intel
Michigan:
Trump 50
Harris 47

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 48
Rogers 48

Pennsylvania:
Trump 50
Harris 47

Wisconsin:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Harris 51
Trump 49

Arizona:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Nevada:
Trump 48
Harris 48

National:
Trump 51
Harris 48

PPP
Washington State:
Harris 55
Trump 40

Oregon:
Harris 53
Trump 41

TIPP
National:
Harris 48
Trump 47
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
User avatar
Rate This
Posts: 18614
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Rate This »

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 52% Chance
Harris 48% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 319 EV’s
Harris 219 EV’s

Electoral-Vote.com:
Trump 256 EV’s
Harris 251 EV’s
Tied 31 EV’s (Michigan, North Carolina)
Donald Trump… In your guts you know he’s nuts.

The Resistance begins now.

This is a pro-Democracy account.

Dear America… you were warned.
User avatar
Honeyman
Posts: 7543
Joined: Wed Dec 15, 2010 4:44 pm

Re: 2024 General Election Polling Thread

Post by Honeyman »

Interesting read: https://bluevirginia.us/2024/10/new-pol ... ness-model

Basically confirming with our resident pollster RT has been saying all along.
The censorship king from out of state.
Post Reply