2024 General Election Polling Thread

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Harris 53% chance
Trump 47% chance

PredictIt:
Trump 54
Harris 49

Virtual Tout:
Trump 305 EV’s
Harris 233 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 276
Trump 252
Ties 10 (Wisconsin)

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Rumor has it that the Predict It market is being artificially inflated after Elon urged conservatives to “buy Trump”.

[Rate This]

Rumor has it that the Predict It market is being artificially inflated after Elon urged conservatives to “buy Trump”.

I am suspecting the same thing. There is no one event that suddenly happened that changed things. I think the underlying dynamics are the same as they’ve been the whole time. They are trying to get us discouraged.

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October 14

NBC 6 Miami / Mason-Dixon
Florida:
Trump 49
Harris 43

ABC News / Ipsos
National:
Harris 49
Trump 47

NBC News
National:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47
Republicans 47

CBS News
National:
Harris 51
Trump 48

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Rumor has it that the Predict It market is being artificially inflated after Elon urged conservatives to “buy Trump”.

I am suspecting the same thing. There is no one event that suddenly happened that changed things. I think the underlying dynamics are the same as they’ve been the whole time. They are trying to get us discouraged.

Everyone I have talked to is even more motivated to vote. They are orchestrating this to bake another big lie.

[Rate This]

Rumor has it that the Predict It market is being artificially inflated after Elon urged conservatives to “buy Trump”.

I am suspecting the same thing. There is no one event that suddenly happened that changed things. I think the underlying dynamics are the same as they’ve been the whole time. They are trying to get us discouraged.

Everyone I have talked to is even more motivated to vote. They are orchestrating this to bake another big lie.

Agreed. Thank god this thread didn’t get nuked. The errors I was getting had me worried.

Anyways… Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Harris 54% Chance
Trump 46% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 54
Harris 49

Virtual Tout:
Trump 305 EV’s
Harris 233 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 276 EV’s
Trump 262 EV’s
10 EV Ties (Wisconsin)

[Rate This]

I think it is the exact opposite - I think Harris is suddenly doing a media blitz because her campaign's internal polling tells them there's trouble.

She’s going on Fox with Bret Baier… what’s Trumps excuse for not going on a non-friendly outlet now?

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October 14

Beemer Swing States Today:
Arizona (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)

Rasmussen Reports
Pennsylvania:
Trump 50
Harris 47

Trafalgar Group
Arizona:
Trump 48
Harris 46

Harvard-Harris
National:
Harris 51
Trump 49

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 51
Republicans 49

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

No polls for today?

[Rate This]

No polls for today?

I do them around midnight… they are notorious for putting more on the list after I post and I try to counter that. So I’m gonna be home from work around 12-1215 and it’ll be a 5 minute thing I do while I let the dog out.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV predictions (I swear I did this for yesterday but I don’t see it)…

538:
Harris 56% Chance
Trump 44% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 54
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 295 EV’s
Harris 243 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 276 EV’s
Trump 252 EV’s
Tied 10 (Wisconsin)

[MWmetalhead]

You are 100% correct. I had a site failure earlier this evening and needed to resort to backup copies that were about 36 hours old.

[Rate This]

You are 100% correct. I had a site failure earlier this evening and needed to resort to backup copies that were about 36 hours old.

That makes sense, thanks for clarifying that I haven’t fully lost it (yet).

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I was wondering why the board was so dead.

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I guess we'll redo the 15th so we have it too. For the 16th there is a FOX poll showing Trump +2 nationally BUT Harris leads by 6 among swing state voters in the 7 contested states as a whole. They did not break it down by state. Meaning if their poll were right he would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.

October 15

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Michigan:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 46

MRG
Michigan:
Harris 45
Trump 44
Kennedy 3
Stein 2
Oliver 1
West 1

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 46
Rogers 41

University of Houston
Texas:
Trump 51
Harris 46

Trafalgar Group
Nevada:
Harris 46
Trump 45

North Carolina:
Trump 47
Harris 45

Insider Advantage
Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Rasmussen Reports
Trump 51
Harris 46

Morning Consult
National:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Reuters / Ipsos
Harris 47
Trump 44

October 16

Beemer Swing States Today:
Georgia (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)

Quinnipiac
North Carolina:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Georgia:
Trump 52
Harris 46

KING-TV Seattle / Survey USA
Washington State:
Harris 57
Trump 35

Noble Predictive Insights
Utah:
Trump 54
Harris 38

The Hill / Emerson
California:
Harris 59
Trump 35

WCVB-TV Boston / Amherst
Massachusetts:
Harris 56
Trump 30
Stein 2
Oliver 1

Alaska Survey Research
Alaska:
Trump 54
Harris 46

Marquette
National:
Trump 50
Harris 50

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 51
Republicans 49

Marist
National:
Harris 52
Trump 47

TIPP
National:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Economist / YouGov
National:
Harris 49
Trump 45

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47
Republicans 46

FOX News
Trump 50
Harris 48

Rasmussen Reports
Trump 48
Harris 47