2024 General Election Polling Thread

[Matt]

Imagine if Harris wins Indiana. Cult member BMW's taunting is going to look even more silly.

Have you been smoking crack? Trump won Indiana in 2020 by just over 16 points, and the two September polls done this year have it at +16 and +17.

RT calls me crazy for my predictions - predictions backed up by current polls. I'd be curious to see what he has to say about your ridiculous hypothetical that will happen in only 1 out of a thousand parallel universes.

In what world is "imagine if" a prediction? As RT correctly notes, Obama did win Indiana not that long ago, but I would be (pleasantly) shocked if Harris wins it.

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October 11

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

Wall Street Journal
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Wisconsin:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Pennsylvania:
Trump 47
Harris 46

Arizona:
Harris 48
Trump 46

Nevada:
Trump 49
Harris 43

North Carolina:
Trump 47
Harris 47

Georgia:
Harris 48
Trump 46

University of Austin
Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 47

LA Times / Berkeley IGS
California:
Harris 57
Trump 35

[Mega Hertz]

I did another drive around the area yesterday on my way to and from a few garage sales in northeast Warren. I live next to the most purple swing precincts one mile N.E. of me. These are precincts that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In 2020, I saw 2 lone Biden/Harris signs then “in the wild” and at least 12 Trump signs. This year, it has been 8 Trump signs to 5 for Kamala. I know that signs don’t vote and demographics shift, but it is not discouraging.

I know we had a thread about signage but I can't be arsed to look for it, so I'm glad you brought this up.

In my daily travels, I have to admit that I am seeing not only Harris signs, but other objects in areas I never thought I would see them. South Lyon. Milford. New Hudson. Salem Twp. Northville. I saw one on a dirt road that said "I'm a veteran, and I'm not a sucker or a loser". I'm really surprised to see so many in areas I thought would absolutely be Trump strongholds.

Of course, as we have to explain to Republicans that land and trees don't vote, signs don't vote, either. It just comes as a surprise to me.

[Rate This]

I did another drive around the area yesterday on my way to and from a few garage sales in northeast Warren. I live next to the most purple swing precincts one mile N.E. of me. These are precincts that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In 2020, I saw 2 lone Biden/Harris signs then “in the wild” and at least 12 Trump signs. This year, it has been 8 Trump signs to 5 for Kamala. I know that signs don’t vote and demographics shift, but it is not discouraging.

I know we had a thread about signage but I can't be arsed to look for it, so I'm glad you brought this up.

In my daily travels, I have to admit that I am seeing not only Harris signs, but other objects in areas I never thought I would see them. South Lyon. Milford. New Hudson. Salem Twp. Northville. I saw one on a dirt road that said "I'm a veteran, and I'm not a sucker or a loser". I'm really surprised to see so many in areas I thought would absolutely be Trump strongholds.

Of course, as we have to explain to Republicans that land and trees don't vote, signs don't vote, either. It just comes as a surprise to me.

I would also look at downballot signs… even if they don’t have a sign for a presidential candidate it’s probably more being afraid to put one out than not supporting the top of the ticket. My visit to Oakland County was pretty prolific with Harris signs.

[TC Talks]

I did another drive around the area yesterday on my way to and from a few garage sales in northeast Warren. I live next to the most purple swing precincts one mile N.E. of me. These are precincts that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In 2020, I saw 2 lone Biden/Harris signs then “in the wild” and at least 12 Trump signs. This year, it has been 8 Trump signs to 5 for Kamala. I know that signs don’t vote and demographics shift, but it is not discouraging.

Here's a point to consider: Harris started late and is having a challenge getting a reliable supply. Maybe it's a problem with distribution due to her late entry.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Harris 53% Chance
Trump 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 304 EV’s
Harris 234 EV’s

Electoral-Vote.com:
Harris 257 EV’s
Trump 252 EV’s
29 EV’s Tied (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)

[Mega Hertz]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Harris 53% Chance
Trump 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 304 EV’s
Harris 234 EV’s

Electoral-Vote.com:
Harris 257 EV’s
Trump 252 EV’s
29 EV’s Tied (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)

Ridiculous.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I did another drive around the area yesterday on my way to and from a few garage sales in northeast Warren. I live next to the most purple swing precincts one mile N.E. of me. These are precincts that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In 2020, I saw 2 lone Biden/Harris signs then “in the wild” and at least 12 Trump signs. This year, it has been 8 Trump signs to 5 for Kamala. I know that signs don’t vote and demographics shift, but it is not discouraging.

I know we had a thread about signage but I can't be arsed to look for it, so I'm glad you brought this up.

In my daily travels, I have to admit that I am seeing not only Harris signs, but other objects in areas I never thought I would see them. South Lyon. Milford. New Hudson. Salem Twp. Northville. I saw one on a dirt road that said "I'm a veteran, and I'm not a sucker or a loser". I'm really surprised to see so many in areas I thought would absolutely be Trump strongholds.

Of course, as we have to explain to Republicans that land and trees don't vote, signs don't vote, either. It just comes as a surprise to me.

Yes, and if Kamala is down 60-40% in some of these exurbs rather than 70-30%, that makes a big difference.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Harris 53% Chance
Trump 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 304 EV’s
Harris 234 EV’s

Electoral-Vote.com:
Harris 257 EV’s
Trump 252 EV’s
29 EV’s Tied (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)

Ridiculous.

I was watching a Meidas Touch video from today and they were talking about Republican pollsters putting out lots of pro trump polls including one in Pennsylvania that Insider Advantage did. Registered voters was Harris by 4… but then they deleted 90% of their Philly respondents despite them indicating likely voter because they made their likely voter screen such that they didn’t make the cut… the result? Trump by 1. If bettors and these aggregators are relying on manipulated information it’ll be a rough Election Day for them. This is the same thing that happened in 2022. Beemer was just as adamant about the polls then… his wave became a trickle.. these Republican pollsters are trying to discourage us. Screw them.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Where I live it is Trump country and all you see are his signs, banners and flags. This year ,for the first time since the Obama era, I have seen just as many Harris signs as Trump stuff. Her campaign is door knocking, making media buys and doing their job. From the looks of it their work is paying off. Our early voting has set daily records as well.

Imagine if Harris wins Indiana. Cult member BMW's taunting is going to look even more silly.

That won’t happen. Now, Florida, Texas, Iowa…those wouldn’t shock me. I say to especially consider Iowa and Ohio. If Kamala is doing so well in the Omaha region, it stands to reason that these could be close. I still say the winner will be between 270-300. But I am just saying that if there is a chance of a really good night, Trump still holds Tennessee, SC, Kentucky, Arkansas, Indiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and the Upper Plains(except Minnesota).

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I did another drive around the area yesterday on my way to and from a few garage sales in northeast Warren. I live next to the most purple swing precincts one mile N.E. of me. These are precincts that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In 2020, I saw 2 lone Biden/Harris signs then “in the wild” and at least 12 Trump signs. This year, it has been 8 Trump signs to 5 for Kamala. I know that signs don’t vote and demographics shift, but it is not discouraging.

I know we had a thread about signage but I can't be arsed to look for it, so I'm glad you brought this up.

In my daily travels, I have to admit that I am seeing not only Harris signs, but other objects in areas I never thought I would see them. South Lyon. Milford. New Hudson. Salem Twp. Northville. I saw one on a dirt road that said "I'm a veteran, and I'm not a sucker or a loser". I'm really surprised to see so many in areas I thought would absolutely be Trump strongholds.

Of course, as we have to explain to Republicans that land and trees don't vote, signs don't vote, either. It just comes as a surprise to me.

I would also look at downballot signs… even if they don’t have a sign for a presidential candidate it’s probably more being afraid to put one out than not supporting the top of the ticket. My visit to Oakland County was pretty prolific with Harris signs.

I did that too. I saw 3 John James signs, and that was it. Some of these Trump people will walk in to vote for him and walk out. I also noticed a few signs for the Democrat(Wickersham) running for sheriff which I had never seen before. Wickersham has won his races narrowly recently.

I haven’t seen any signs for either state rep candidate. The incumbent Democrat(Nate Shannon) here in the 58th is playing defense. The Republican Ron Robinson is sending out tons of negative flyers. Lots of money spent. They really want this seat flipped. Back in 2016, Nate won by 10. And each election since, it has narrowed by 2-3% each time. He won by 2.5% in 2022, but his opponent didn’t spend much. This guy is. I don’t think people realize what a dog fight keeping the Michigan house will be.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Harris 53% Chance
Trump 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 55
Harris 50

Virtual Tout:
Trump 304 EV’s
Harris 234 EV’s

Electoral-Vote.com:
Harris 257 EV’s
Trump 252 EV’s
29 EV’s Tied (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)

Ridiculous.

I was watching a Meidas Touch video from today and they were talking about Republican pollsters putting out lots of pro trump polls including one in Pennsylvania that Insider Advantage did. Registered voters was Harris by 4… but then they deleted 90% of their Philly respondents despite them indicating likely voter because they made their likely voter screen such that they didn’t make the cut… the result? Trump by 1. If bettors and these aggregators are relying on manipulated information it’ll be a rough Election Day for them. This is the same thing that happened in 2022. Beemer was just as adamant about the polls then… his wave became a trickle.. these Republican pollsters are trying to discourage us. Screw them.

But pediophile insists that BMW has NEVER been wrong...

There is no need for this. I know our rancor is up being this close to the election, but this is too far.

[ZenithCKLW]

For the past decade, I have been surrounded by Trump-everything in super red Sanilac County. It was discouraging until I went up there this weekend and I saw a significant amount of Harris/Walz signs in the neighborhood and even along M-25. It was enough for me to take a hard notice. Although I’m not using this as a barometer, Democratic support isn’t something you see much of in Sanilac County, but something seems to be happening.

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For the past decade, I have been surrounded by Trump-everything in super red Sanilac County. It was discouraging until I went up there this weekend and I saw a significant amount of Harris/Walz signs in the neighborhood and even along M-25. It was enough for me to take a hard notice. Although I’m not using this as a barometer, Democratic support isn’t something you see much of in Sanilac County, but something seems to be happening.

A bunch of Harris signs have sprouted in my area in the last few days as well. The Trump signs have been out there for months. They may really be having a problem keeping up. My gut feel says this is the same kind of situation we had with Whitmer and Dixon where you saw lots of Dixon and anti-Whitmer stuff and it did not reflect reality…

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October 12

Beemer Swing States Today:
Arizona
Pennsylvania

New York Times / Siena
Arizona:
Trump 51
Harris 46

Pennsylvania:
Harris 50
Trump 47