Milton

[bmw]

Still some variance in the latest model runs - some show a track slightly further north than as of yesterday's runs, while runs like the European model ECMWF show Tampa pretty much taking a direct hit.

[RayQix]

This is dire…… and I’m gravely concerned for my family who thinks they can “ride this one out”.

Grandma, cousin, and one aunt. Hopefully they all survive past Thursday ;,-(


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[TC Talks]

My neighbor is scheduled to be at her Marcos Island house on Friday. She's flying into Punta Gorda. Maybe that won't be happening.

[Matt]

Update:
Center of the cone is now over Sarasota.

A landfall there would mean minimal damage in the immediate Tampa Bay area. Tampa Bay would literally become dry land for a time if landfall were to occur in Sarasota.

The latest NHC forecast cone, which remains subject to future revision, extends from the northern part of the Tampa metro to roughly Cape Coral.

WFLA-TV is thinking Sarasota and Charlotte counties have a much higher risk for high impacts than Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.

I'd be getting increasingly nervous if I were in Naples or Marco Island.

To clarify - are you suggesting the actual bay would be clear of water?

[TC Talks]

Update:
Center of the cone is now over Sarasota.

A landfall there would mean minimal damage in the immediate Tampa Bay area. Tampa Bay would literally become dry land for a time if landfall were to occur in Sarasota.

The latest NHC forecast cone, which remains subject to future revision, extends from the northern part of the Tampa metro to roughly Cape Coral.

WFLA-TV is thinking Sarasota and Charlotte counties have a much higher risk for high impacts than Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.

I'd be getting increasingly nervous if I were in Naples or Marco Island.

To clarify - are you suggesting the actual bay would be clear of water?

Tampa will get significant storm surge, any prediction to the contrary is misleading. It will also get wind on the 100+ mph range. European and the Composite models show that the track is adjusting north again from the weird bump it took earlier today.

[RayQix]

One of My family is in Tampa - heading to Orlando —

The others will be on the northern edge of the cone


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[TC Talks]

WFLA is actually discussing how they build their model in real time and it is very interesting. Ana Maria Island is in a bad spot.

https://www.youtube.com/live/a6ecVh55rb ... Ijk9NQJ5wI

[Turkeytop]

To clarify - are you suggesting the actual bay would be clear of water?

In 2022, Hurricane Ian sucked all the water right out of Tampa Bay for a few hours. Crazy middle class people were standing out in the middle of the bay taking selfies.

[Matt]

To clarify - are you suggesting the actual bay would be clear of water?

In 2022, Hurricane Ian sucked all the water right out of Tampa Bay for a few hours. Crazy middle class people were standing out in the middle of the bay taking selfies.

Yeah, I remember that. I'm not sure how one could surmise the class of people.

[lidoshuffle]

I have friends in Venice and Englewood, pretty much both locations have a big red bullseye for Milton, my Venice friends are riding it out, Englewood friends have headed into Georgia with relatives,
Good luck to anyone who is down there and riding this out...

[TC Talks]

Staying in Venice is almost a suicide pact.

[Turkeytop]

Yeah, I remember that. I'm not sure how one could surmise the class of people.

Taking selfies kinda gives it away.

[RayQix]

I have tried many times over the years, but my grandmother would say to me that she was gonna ride out a storm and I would say to her, that’s probably not a good idea

The last time she had to evacuate was in 2017 I believe and she went about 10 miles away to higher ground at her hairdresser’s house

The hairdresser has either since retired or moved away, so that’s no longer an option


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