2024 General Election Polling Thread

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September 7

YouGov
Texas:
Trump 49
Harris 44

[TC Talks]

[Matt]

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/harris ... in-debate/

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September 8

Beemer States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)

CBS News
Michigan:
Harris 50
Trump 49

Wisconsin:
Harris 51
Trump 49

Pennsylvania:
Trump 50
Harris 50

New York Times / Siena
National:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Trump 47
Harris 45
Oliver 2
Stein 1

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September 9

Beemer Swing States Today:
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)

CBS News
Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 48
Rogers 41

WRAL-TV Raleigh / Survey USA
North Carolina:
Harris 49 Trump 46

Quinnipiac
North Carolina:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 46

Pew Research
National:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Harvard-Harris
National:
Trump 50
Harris 50

Trump 49
Harris 49
Stein 1
West 1

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September 10

Let’s get todays numbers up before the debate...

Beemer States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)

Morning Consult
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 46

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 40

Arizona:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Colorado:
Harris 55
Trump 40

Florida:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Georgia:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Maryland:
Harris 62
Trump 34

Minnesota:
Harris 51
Trump 44

North Carolina:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Nevada:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Ohio:
Trump 52
Harris 44

Pennsylvania:
Harris 49
Trump 46

Texas:
Trump 52
Harris 43

Virginia:
Harris 52
Trump 42

Wisconsin:
Harris 49
Trump 46

Florida Atlantic University
North Carolina:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Georgia:
Trump 47
Harris 45

Washington Post
Virginia:
Harris 51
Trump 43

Harris 50
Trump 42
Stein 1
Oliver 1
West 0

NPR / PBS / Marist
National:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46
Republicans 45

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Just received some interesting polling. Trying to figure out how to post it here because it's on Facebook. Hell, I will just manually type it:

Moore Research
Erie County, PA

Sample size 705

Harris 50.1%
Trump 40.4%
Other 3.0%
Undecided 6.6%

Main reason for choice:

Harris voters: Democracy (55%)
Trump voters: Economy (62%)

By Gender:

55.7% of women for Harris
50.7% of men for Trump

Age breakdown

18-34: Harris 51%, Trump 36
35-54: Harris 44%, Trump 44%
55-64: Trump 51%, Harris 42%
65+: Harris 66%, Trump 29%




2020 Results

Biden 49.8%
Trump 48.8%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/resul ... nnsylvania

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Just received some interesting polling. Trying to figure out how to post it here because it's on Facebook. Hell, I will just manually type it:

Moore Research
Erie County, PA

Sample size 705

Harris 50.1%
Trump 40.4%
Other 3.0%
Undecided 6.6%

Main reason for choice:

Harris voters: Democracy (55%)
Trump voters: Economy (62%)

By Gender:

55.7% of women for Harris
50.7% of men for Trump

Age breakdown

18-34: Harris 51%, Trump 36
35-54: Harris 44%, Trump 44%
55-64: Trump 51%, Harris 42%
65+: Harris 66%, Trump 29%




2020 Results

Biden 49.8%
Trump 48.8%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/resul ... nnsylvania

At least there Trump has strength among boomers and nobody else… I can’t decide if that’s a coincidence or not.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Just received some interesting polling. Trying to figure out how to post it here because it's on Facebook. Hell, I will just manually type it:

Moore Research
Erie County, PA

Sample size 705

Harris 50.1%
Trump 40.4%
Other 3.0%
Undecided 6.6%

Main reason for choice:

Harris voters: Democracy (55%)
Trump voters: Economy (62%)

By Gender:

55.7% of women for Harris
50.7% of men for Trump

Age breakdown

18-34: Harris 51%, Trump 36
35-54: Harris 44%, Trump 44%
55-64: Trump 51%, Harris 42%
65+: Harris 66%, Trump 29%




2020 Results

Biden 49.8%
Trump 48.8%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/resul ... nnsylvania

At least there Trump has strength among boomers and nobody else… I can’t decide if that’s a coincidence or not.

The 65+ really feels like an anomaly in all honesty, but I thought Harris would do better with 35-54. Literally typing what's there.

[Rate This]

Just received some interesting polling. Trying to figure out how to post it here because it's on Facebook. Hell, I will just manually type it:

Moore Research
Erie County, PA

Sample size 705

Harris 50.1%
Trump 40.4%
Other 3.0%
Undecided 6.6%

Main reason for choice:

Harris voters: Democracy (55%)
Trump voters: Economy (62%)

By Gender:

55.7% of women for Harris
50.7% of men for Trump

Age breakdown

18-34: Harris 51%, Trump 36
35-54: Harris 44%, Trump 44%
55-64: Trump 51%, Harris 42%
65+: Harris 66%, Trump 29%




2020 Results

Biden 49.8%
Trump 48.8%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/resul ... nnsylvania

At least there Trump has strength among boomers and nobody else… I can’t decide if that’s a coincidence or not.

The 65+ really feels like an anomaly in all honesty, but I thought Harris would do better with 35-54. Literally typing what's there.

Maybe not that strongly but seniors were trending Biden before he dropped out so it’s possible they went further that way.

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September 11

Beemer State Today:
Wisconsin (Harris)

Marquette
Wisconsin:
Harris 52
Trump 48

Harris 48
Trump 43
Kennedy 6
Oliver 1
West 1
Stein 1

VCU
Virginia:
Harris 46
Trump 36
West 2
Stein 1

Economist / YouGov
National:
Trump 45
Harris 45
West 1
Stein 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 45

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September 12

Lots of national polls today taken after the debate with the exception of the Rasmussen poll and the Insider Advantage of Michigan which was half before and half after.

Beemer Swing State Today:
Michigan (Trump)

Insider Advantage
Michigan:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Reuters / Ipsos
National:
Harris 47
Trump 42

New York Post
National:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Morning Consult
National:
Harris 50
Trump 45

Rasmussen Reports
National:
Trump 49
Harris 47

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September 13

Beemer Swing State Today:
Michigan (Trump)

MIRS / Michigan News Source
Michigan:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Harris 47
Trump 46
Kennedy 2
Stein 1
West 0

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 48
Rogers 45

MinnPost
Minnesota:
Harris 49
Trump 44

St. Anselm
New Hampshire:
Harris 51
Trump 43

Talk Business / Hendrix College
Arkansas:
Trump 55
Harris 40

If the Arkansas result holds it would be a dip in support for Trump. In 2016 he won 60-34. In 2020 that number was 63-35.

[Matt]

September 13

Beemer Swing State Today:
Michigan (Trump)

MIRS / Michigan News Source
Michigan:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Harris 47
Trump 46
Kennedy 2
Stein 1
West 0

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 48
Rogers 45

MinnPost
Minnesota:
Harris 49
Trump 44

St. Anselm
New Hampshire:
Harris 51
Trump 43

Talk Business / Hendrix College
Arkansas:
Trump 55
Harris 40

If the Arkansas result holds it would be a dip in support for Trump. In 2016 he won 60-34. In 2020 that number was 63-35.

I don't believe the Slotkin/Rogers numbers.

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September 13

Beemer Swing State Today:
Michigan (Trump)

MIRS / Michigan News Source
Michigan:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Harris 47
Trump 46
Kennedy 2
Stein 1
West 0

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 48
Rogers 45

MinnPost
Minnesota:
Harris 49
Trump 44

St. Anselm
New Hampshire:
Harris 51
Trump 43

Talk Business / Hendrix College
Arkansas:
Trump 55
Harris 40

If the Arkansas result holds it would be a dip in support for Trump. In 2016 he won 60-34. In 2020 that number was 63-35.

I don't believe the Slotkin/Rogers numbers.

There has been much non-anecdotal evidence that since Harris entered the picture there has been a massive bump in registrations especially among younger women... I too find the numbers for the senate race to be suspect but also all of these ties. It kind of looks to be a similar phenomenon as post Dobbs where there were also a large number of registrations and then a Democratic overperformance which has been repeated numerous times. I think most pollsters may have adjusted their models to account for the Trump effect in order to not get burned and they aren't catching whatever shift may be happening. But the enthusiasm and registration situation doesn't point to a tie.