2024 General Election Polling Thread

[Matt]

I feel it worth mentioning that the Trump rant that Biden would take the nomination back at the DNC proved false, as we all knew it was. Meanwhile more Republicans are coming forward to endorse Harris saying Trump unfit for office. Is it possible that all these people are right?

I could see this ending as a bigger landslide for Kamala than Obama in 2008. Of course, Trump supporters view 11/4 as the first election - they're preparing for 1/6/25 in case 11/4 doesn't go their way. Km112535 already has his DC-bound Greyhound ticket for early January.

[TC Talks]

I feel it worth mentioning that the Trump rant that Biden would take the nomination back at the DNC proved false, as we all knew it was. Meanwhile more Republicans are coming forward to endorse Harris saying Trump unfit for office. Is it possible that all these people are right?

I could see this ending as a bigger landslide for Kamala than Obama in 2008. Of course, Trump supporters view 11/4 as the first election - they're preparing for 1/6/25 in case 11/4 doesn't go their way. Km112535 already has his DC-bound Greyhound ticket for early January.

What insurrection?

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August 20

Remington Research
Nebraska CD-2:
Harris 50
Trump 42
Kennedy 2
West 1
Stein 0

Roanoke College
Virginia:
Harris 47
Trump 44

Harris 45
Trump 42
Kennedy 6
West 2
Stein 0

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In light of Beemers startling declaration of a healthy Trump win... I will begin noting the swing states (MI, WI, PA, NH, VA, NC, GA, AZ, NV, NE-2, ME-2) with his prediction in parenthesis. We can see how well he's doing in real time vs. the polls.

August 21

UNH
New Hampshire (Beemer... Harris):
Harris 52
Trump 47

Harris 50
Trump 43
Kennedy 4
Stein 0
West 0

Maine:
Harris 58
Trump 41

Harris 55
Trump 38
Kennedy 2
Stein 1
West 0

Maine CD-1:
Harris 62
Trump 33

Maine CD-2 (Beemer... Trump):
Harris 49
Trump 44

Vermont:
Harris 70
Trump 29

Harris 67
Trump 27
Kennedy 3
West 0

Rasmussen Reports
Wisconsin (Beemer... Harris):
Harris 48
Trump 47

Trump 46
Harris 46
Kennedy 4
Stein 1
West 1

Nevada (Beemer... Trump):
Trump 48
Harris 46

Trump 46
Harris 44
Kennedy 5
Stein 0
West 0

Montana:
Trump 58
Harris 35

Trump 58
Harris 31
Kennedy 7
Stein 0
West 0

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 43

Activote
California:
Harris 65
Trump 35

Economist / YouGov
National:
Harris 46
Trump 43
Kennedy 3
Stein 0
West 0

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47
Republicans 43

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August 22

University of Houston
Texas:
Trump 50
Harris 45
Kennedy 2
Stein 1
Oliver 1

High Point / Survey USA
North Carolina (Beemer... Trump):
Harris 46
Trump 45

Data For Progress
National:
Harris 49
Trump 46

Harris 47
Trump 43
Kennedy 5
Stein 1
West 0

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 49
Republicans 44

HarrisX
National:
Trump 51
Harris 49

Harris 45
Trump 44
Kennedy 9
Stein 1
West 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 42
Republicans 39

Rasmussen Reports
National:
Trump 49
Harris 46

Trump 47
Harris 45
Kennedy 4
Stein 1
West 1

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August 23

Beemer States Today:
PA (Trump)

Activote
Pennsylvania:
Harris 51
Trump 49

Ohio:
Trump 56
Harris 44

Missouri:
Trump 59
Harris 41

New York:
Harris 58
Trump 42

HarrisX
Utah:
Trump 60
Harris 28

The Hill / Emerson
New Mexico:
Harris 52
Trump 42

Harris 51
Trump 40
Kennedy 3
West 0
Stein 0

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August 25

Beemer states today:
MI (Trump)
PA (Trump)

American Greatness / TIPP
Michigan:
Harris 48
Trump 46

Harris 46
Trump 45
Kennedy 5
Stein 1
West 1

Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 39

SoCal Research
Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 47

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

August 25

Beemer states today:
MI (Trump)
PA (Trump)

American Greatness / TIPP
Michigan:
Harris 48
Trump 46

Harris 46
Trump 45
Kennedy 5
Stein 1
West 1

Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 39

SoCal Research
Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Damn, that's Trump internal polling team for Michigan(American Greatness). Probably looking at a tie once they void Kennedy though. Good to see Slotkin kicking Florida man's ass. Trump up in PA is not good.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Via 538:

Polls ending Aug. 23, 2024
President: general election
Aug. 15-23 1,000(sample)
ActiVote
Harris 53%
Trump 47% Harris +5(margin due to rounding)

Aug. 22, 2024
President: general election, Virginia, 2024

Aug. 20-22 629 RV(sample)

Quantus Polls and News
Harris 49%
Trump 46% Harris +3

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

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August 25

Beemer states today:
MI (Trump)
PA (Trump)

American Greatness / TIPP
Michigan:
Harris 48
Trump 46

Harris 46
Trump 45
Kennedy 5
Stein 1
West 1

Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 39

SoCal Research
Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Damn, that's Trump internal polling team for Michigan(American Greatness). Probably looking at a tie once they void Kennedy though. Good to see Slotkin kicking Florida man's ass. Trump up in PA is not good.

Remember that they ask “Trump or Harris?” And get a result THEN they ask “Trump or Harris or Kennedy?” And get a result. So we already know exactly what the score is. There isn’t any “those 5% will…” because they’ve already been asked what they will do absent him. So if he isn’t an option she’s up 2 and if he is an Option she’s up 1. This idea Trump is gonna gain a bunch is wishful thinking on the part of Republicans. What the 5% do isn’t a secret. Why I didn’t think of that earlier to rebut Beemer (and Frank Luntz for that matter) is a mystery.

[Matt]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -poll/amp/

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -poll/amp/

Visual form…

Fairleigh Dickinson University
National:
Harris 50
Trump 43

Conducted through the 20th and released Friday. And that’s registered voters which has been narrower this whole race.

[TC Talks]

His quotes are getting desperate.

When asked Thursday by Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum about Harris’s increasing support in the polls, Trump said, “No, she’s not having success. I’m having success. I’m doing great with the Hispanic voters. I’m doing great with Black men. I’m doing great with women, because women want safety.”

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August 26

Morning Consult
National:
Harris 48
Trump 44

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August 27

Beemer States Today:
Arizona (Trump)

Yahoo News
National:
Harris 47
Trump 46

Harris 46
Trump 45
Stein 1
West 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 42

Noble Predictive Insights
Arizona:
Trump 47
Harris 44

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Harris 64
Trump 32

Capital Weekly
California:
Harris 57
Trump 37