2024 General Election Polling Thread

[Rate This]

Now that the matchups are set for President and for Michigan's state races it's time to transition to a new thread.

August 8

Marquette
Wisconsin General Election:
Harris 50
Trump 49

Harris 46
Trump 45
Kennedy 6
Stein 1
West 0

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Harris 45
Trump 43
Kennedy 2
Stein 1
West 0

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 44

[Rate This]

August 8

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Georgia General Election:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Trump 46
Harris 44
Kennedy 4
West 2
Stein 1

The Hill / Emerson
Montana General Election:
Trump 55
Harris 40

Trump 54
Harris 39
Kennedy 5
Stein 0
West 0
*Republican leads Senate race by 2*

Marquette
General Election:
Harris 52
Trump 48

Harris 47
Trump 41
Kennedy 9
Stein 2
West 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 52
Republicans 48

CNBC
General Election:
Trump 48
Harris 46

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 44

Rasmussen Reports
General Election:
Trump 49
Harris 44

Trump 49
Harris 44
Kennedy 3
West 1
Stein 0

[Matt]

At almost 11 in the east on 8/9/24, Kamala leads the felon 57-45 on predictit.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Quick reminder that Biden won the national popular vote by a 5.7% margin. So, Kamala has to win by a 4% margin to have a chance.

[Rate This]

Quick reminder that Biden won the national popular vote by a 5.7% margin. So, Kamala has to win by a 4% margin to have a chance.

3% or more is generally viewed as the threshold. The electoral college is a gerrymander of the whole country. 43 of the 50 states will be almost totally ignored this cycle at the presidential level.

August 9

Insider Advantage
Michigan General Election:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Trafalgar Group
Arizona General Election:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Nevada General Election:
Trump 48
Harris 45

Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 46
Harris 44

North Carolina General Election:
Trump 49
Harris 45

Carolina Journal / Cygnal
North Carolina General Election:
Trump 47
Harris 44

[Matt]

Trafalgar has historically leaned right.

[TC Talks]

Ok data junkies, here are complete cross tabs for Michigan... I have unlocked it.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... =url-share

NYT have run this for every swing state.

[bmw]

Ok data junkies, here are complete cross tabs for Michigan... I have unlocked it.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... =url-share

NYT have run this for every swing state.

Interesting discrepancy between "likely" and "registered" voters in Michigan compared to other states.

Registered:
MI 48-45 Trump
PA 49-46 Harris
WI 50-46 Harris

Likely:
MI 50-46 Harris
PA 50-46 Harris
WI 50-46 Harris

So the numbers are virtually identical between the 2 groups in PA and WI, but a 7-point swing from Trump to Harris when filtering out registered voters who the NYT has determined are not likely to vote. I wonder why that is the case in this state?

[TC Talks]

My dad is registered but will not be voting, to use an example. As a lifelong Michigan Republican, Trump disgusts him.

Either that, or it's rigged.

Walz is very favorable with Women, while C. F. Vance is very unfavorable.

[bmw]

But I'm curious why this phenomenon seems to apply only to Michigan and not Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Perhaps we need a bigger sample size, but an interesting discrepancy nonetheless.

Michigan probably goes blue this November (as of now anyways) but I think it is a lot closer than people think. Because I would also point out that according to those cross-tabs, the sample was of people who voted 52-45 Biden in 2020 when the actual results were 50-48. I'm not sure if the NYT weighs their final results to account for this, but if they don't, that means the poll sample skews 2.5 points Democrat.

[Rate This]

But I'm curious why this phenomenon seems to apply only to Michigan and not Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Perhaps we need a bigger sample size, but an interesting discrepancy nonetheless.

Michigan probably goes blue this November (as of now anyways) but I think it is a lot closer than people think. Because I would also point out that according to those cross-tabs, the sample was of people who voted 52-45 Biden in 2020 when the actual results were 50-48. I'm not sure if the NYT weighs their final results to account for this, but if they don't, that means the poll sample skews 2.5 points Democrat.

Remember that they are attempting to account for enthusiasm and recent demographic trends and voting patterns since 2020 so it probably should look about like this. The Democrats are currently more enthusiastic than the Republicans.

If you scroll to the bottom of the that New York Times page they explain their methodology and how they got the results in detail.

For the first time Harris leads in the Electoral-Vote.com average too:

276-251 with Arizona tied. The three NYT/Siena numbers tipped it.

[Rate This]

August 10

Interesting what happens once the third parties are factored in.

New York Times / Siena
Michigan General Election:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Harris 48
Trump 43
Kennedy 4
Stein 1
West 0

Michigan Senate General Election:
Slotkin 46
Rogers 43

Wisconsin General Election:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Harris 49
Trump 43
Kennedy 5
Stein 1
West 0
*Democrat leads the senate race by 7*

Pennsylvania General Election:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Harris 46
Trump 44
Kennedy 4
Stein 1
West 0
*Democrat leads the senate race by 14*

[Rate This]

August 8

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Georgia General Election:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Trump 46
Harris 44
Kennedy 4
West 2
Stein 1

The Hill / Emerson
Montana General Election:
Trump 55
Harris 40

Trump 54
Harris 39
Kennedy 5
Stein 0
West 0
*Republican leads Senate race by 2*

Marquette
General Election:
Harris 52
Trump 48

Harris 47
Trump 41
Kennedy 9
Stein 2
West 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 52
Republicans 48

CNBC
General Election:
Trump 48
Harris 46

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 44

Rasmussen Reports
General Election:
Trump 49
Harris 44

Trump 49
Harris 44
Kennedy 3
West 1
Stein 0

On that Marquette Survey… registered voters are 52-48 Harris. Likely voters are 50-42 Harris. This is actually consistent with the Biden-Trump dynamic but amplified. Biden consistently did better among likely voters than registered voters.

[Rate This]

Predictit has Harris as a 59-41 favorite to win in November… also has the Democrats favored to win Georgia 53-49 and Wisconsin 64-40.

[Turkeytop]

Predictit has Harris as a 59-41 favorite to win in November… also has the Democrats favored to win Georgia 53-49 and Wisconsin 64-40.

Maybe I should remove the For Sale sign from our place in Florida.

America adores Kamila.