Let's talk about the merits of the NY case against Trump

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Not an unbiased source, but interesting commentary: https://twitter.com/BarbMcQuade/status/ ... vDLgw&s=19

I'd trust McQuade over the view or Ms. Cooper.

...Prosecution spent the entire case preparing for this moment by pre-corroborating his testimony with documents and other witnesses...

Now that's an interesting take. If the prosecution has documents and other witnesses that corroborate Cohen's testimony in its entirety, then there's no reason to take the risk of putting a liar like Cohen on the stand. The only reason you'd call him as a witness is that he's needed to fill in some gaps, and if he's a proven liar, that becomes a major liability for the prosecution, particularly given the "guilt beyond a reasonable doubt" standard.

If they can back it up with other evidence and produce cohen saying the same thing then his past history of making it up is irrelevant. It would be like taking a picture of him in front of a building, arguing he was there, showing the photo and having Trumps people come back with “he’s a proven liar how can you believe him”. If they have the goods then they have them.

[Turkeytop]

The jury will either find Trump not guilty or there will be a hung jury resulting in a mistrial. That's my prediction.

I'm thinking hung jury. It takes a unanimous verdict to convict and a unanimous verdict to acquit

[bmw]

Gotta tell ya BMW, your read on this trial is from a Trump loving perspective. For every story that makes it look good for Trump, there are stories that suggest he is in trouble.

No. My read on this trial is from the perspective of the principle that the state has a heavy burden in proving its case and that the person on trial is innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. That's how our founders intended our criminal justice system to work. Much of the mainstream media, on the other hand (prior to today, anyways), has looked at this from the perspective of "Trump's guilty, here's how today's testimony got the prosecution closer to a conviction."

[TC Talks]

The prosecution has not finished presenting its case, let's see how it goes... you were pretty quiet last week when Stormy was on the stand.

[bmw]

You must have missed where I said her testimony is mostly irrelevant to this case and that she was put on the stand for no reason other than to drag Trump through the mud.

Also,

Prosecutors told Merchan they have no other witnesses to call after Cohen is off the stand, and the defense said it plans to call one campaign finance expert, though that is not set in stone.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/politics ... index.html

[Honeyman]

It's a hung jury for sure. Trump will claim vindication, all the sycophants in the cult (former Republican party) will rejoice. His poll numbers increase.

Unless this mother fucker dies of a heart attack...please, God....he'll be elected again.

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It's a hung jury for sure. Trump will claim vindication, all the sycophants in the cult (former Republican party) will rejoice. His poll numbers increase.

Unless this mother fucker dies of a heart attack...please, God....he'll be elected again.

There is something fundamentally wrong with the polls and they are overstating Trumps position. We have a mountain of evidence that flies in the face of the supposed lead he has. I wouldn’t get too worried about it.

[Matt]

It's a hung jury for sure. Trump will claim vindication, all the sycophants in the cult (former Republican party) will rejoice. His poll numbers increase.

Unless this mother fucker dies of a heart attack...please, God....he'll be elected again.

There is something fundamentally wrong with the polls and they are overstating Trumps position. We have a mountain of evidence that flies in the face of the supposed lead he has. I wouldn’t get too worried about it.

You are making this up.

[Rate This]

It's a hung jury for sure. Trump will claim vindication, all the sycophants in the cult (former Republican party) will rejoice. His poll numbers increase.

Unless this mother fucker dies of a heart attack...please, God....he'll be elected again.

There is something fundamentally wrong with the polls and they are overstating Trumps position. We have a mountain of evidence that flies in the face of the supposed lead he has. I wouldn’t get too worried about it.

You are making this up.

How am I making it up? We have Trump consistently losing 15-20% of Republicans no matter what kind of primary it is (Republican only, Republican and Independent or totally open), consistent over performance in special elections so far by Democrats compared to the makeup of the districts in question sometimes significantly and now that result in the Maryland senate primary where the polls were wildly off. We are also getting really strange results from the cross tabs in polls like the Siena one from a couple of days ago which contains some real head scratchers when you start looking at demographics and how it claims they have moved around their support.

If Trump indeed loses 15-20% of Republicans (the Nikki Haley folks) then he’s toast. Heck if he loses 10% of them he’s in trouble. He has the smaller base and thus less margin for error. My suspicion is that the pills are over correcting for Republicans and producing results that are skewed. The race is a coin flip at the most.

[Matt]

It's a hung jury for sure. Trump will claim vindication, all the sycophants in the cult (former Republican party) will rejoice. His poll numbers increase.

Unless this mother fucker dies of a heart attack...please, God....he'll be elected again.

There is something fundamentally wrong with the polls and they are overstating Trumps position. We have a mountain of evidence that flies in the face of the supposed lead he has. I wouldn’t get too worried about it.

You are making this up.

How am I making it up? We have Trump consistently losing 15-20% of Republicans no matter what kind of primary it is (Republican only, Republican and Independent or totally open), consistent over performance in special elections so far by Democrats compared to the makeup of the districts in question sometimes significantly and now that result in the Maryland senate primary where the polls were wildly off. We are also getting really strange results from the cross tabs in polls like the Siena one from a couple of days ago which contains some real head scratchers when you start looking at demographics and how it claims they have moved around their support.

If Trump indeed loses 15-20% of Republicans (the Nikki Haley folks) then he’s toast. Heck if he loses 10% of them he’s in trouble. He has the smaller base and thus less margin for error. My suspicion is that the pills are over correcting for Republicans and producing results that are skewed. The race is a coin flip at the most.

There are a lot of wild cards this year and anyone making a matter of fact statement as you did is full of shit.

[Rate This]

It's a hung jury for sure. Trump will claim vindication, all the sycophants in the cult (former Republican party) will rejoice. His poll numbers increase.

Unless this mother fucker dies of a heart attack...please, God....he'll be elected again.

There is something fundamentally wrong with the polls and they are overstating Trumps position. We have a mountain of evidence that flies in the face of the supposed lead he has. I wouldn’t get too worried about it.

You are making this up.

How am I making it up? We have Trump consistently losing 15-20% of Republicans no matter what kind of primary it is (Republican only, Republican and Independent or totally open), consistent over performance in special elections so far by Democrats compared to the makeup of the districts in question sometimes significantly and now that result in the Maryland senate primary where the polls were wildly off. We are also getting really strange results from the cross tabs in polls like the Siena one from a couple of days ago which contains some real head scratchers when you start looking at demographics and how it claims they have moved around their support.

If Trump indeed loses 15-20% of Republicans (the Nikki Haley folks) then he’s toast. Heck if he loses 10% of them he’s in trouble. He has the smaller base and thus less margin for error. My suspicion is that the pills are over correcting for Republicans and producing results that are skewed. The race is a coin flip at the most.

There are a lot of wild cards this year and anyone making a matter of fact statement as you did is full of shit.

If I changed it from “there is” to “there seems to be” would you be satisfied? That’s no longer matter of fact though I still believe I have the right of it.

[Matt]

That's more than fair. I would agree that it's a toss up at best, not a significant Trump lead. I don't think anyone has a real clue on how this unprecedented election cycle will play out.

[bmw]

Matt - sounds to me like your tune has changed a bit. Just a few months ago you said that Trump had literally no chance of winning. I'm curious what has changed your opinion?

RT - Here's the problem with your argument - the polling in 2020 ended up being correct. The polling average never put Trump closer than to within 4 points of Biden. This time around the polling looks very different. You have to explain why the polling was correct in 2020 but why it is wrong this time around.

[Rate This]

Matt - sounds to me like your tune has changed a bit. Just a few months ago you said that Trump had literally no chance of winning. I'm curious what has changed your opinion?

RT - Here's the problem with your argument - the polling in 2020 ended up being correct. The polling average never put Trump closer than to within 4 points of Biden. This time around the polling looks very different. You have to explain why the polling was correct in 2020 but why it is wrong this time around.

My best guess is that several pollsters (ahem Siena) have a flawed model of the electorate that is skewing things in Trumps direction. Consider these nuggets from the Siena poll from earlier this week:
Biden is up only 10 points with Latino voters in Arizona. (He won Arizona Latinos by 20 in 2020.)

Biden is losing among Arizona men by 19 points. (He lost Arizona men by 2 points in 2020.)

Biden will get the votes of 29% of Nevada women. (He got 54% of them in 2020.)

Biden will lose Clark County by 12 points. (He won Clark by 9 points in 2020.)

Biden has the votes of 73% of registered Democrats in Georgia. (He got 96% of Georgia Democrats in 2020.)

Biden will get 55% of the Black vote in Georgia. (He got 88% of Black Georgians in 2020.)

Biden has the support of 32% of independent voters in Michigan. (He got 51% of them in 2020.)

Biden is up 22 points among voters 65+ in Michigan. (He won them by 2 points there in 2020.)

Biden is leading among Black voters in Pennsylvania by 38 points. (He won that demographic in Pennsylvania by 84 points in 2020.)

Biden is slated to get 44% of the vote in Philadelphia in 2024. (He got 81% there in 2020.)

Jill Stein is getting 14% of the Black vote in Wisconsin. (She wasn't on the ballot there in 2020, and got 0.3% of the Black vote there in 2016.)

Biden has the votes of 35% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30. (He got 59% of Wisconsinites under the age of 30 in 2020.)

Several of these make absolutely no sense. So since you are defending the results can you explain the examples above. Note this is a broad swath of demographics too and not some carefully chosen numbers.

My overarching argument is that if the kinds of things above are occurring on a widespread basis the polling is jacked up. Whether that’s 4 years of older voters dying off or a bad model of the electorate / over correcting for shy Trump folks or what the polls don’t match the results we are seeing in the primaries. I’m being asked to believe Trump will capture all of the 15-20% consistently protesting Haley voters AND THEN SOME and eat into Democratic demographics. That strains credulity to its breaking point.