I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

[BKRPDM]

Are the storms heavier and more severe this summer, or does the newer warning system (marginal, slight, enhanced) for thunderstorms just make it feel this way? It feels like the “here’s another bad storm coming” from the local tv folks is a few times a week thing….

[jadednihilist]

Yes, emergency notifications went off on cellphones Downriver: Flat Rock, Trenton, Woodhaven... so was it just a radar TVS possible rotation, or did anyone see a funnel near Flat Rock?

There was a bit or tornado damage reported from that cell in Lenawee county. The White Lake radar, which scanned at about 3000 ft above ground level did observe some robust rotation in northern Monroe County, which prompted the Tornado Warning. However, given the strong stability at the surface due to the loss of daytime heating, it seems like the rotation did not reach the surface. A funnel cloud was certainly possible, but to my knowledge, none was observed (and it was dark, so it would have been difficult to observe).

The FAA weather radar located in far SW Wayne County did see some broad rotation at about 300 ft AGL, but nothing too compelling. I think the Tornado Warning was issued mostly out of an abundance of caution given the supercellular characteristics of the storm and the possibility that a tornado could reach the surface with little warning. Luckily that did not end up being the case; a happy false alarm indeed!

[jadednihilist]

The HWW issuance was a complete head scratcher for me. Perhaps NWS thought some showers would form and transport high winds aloft to the surface? Not sure.

The radar signature that prompted issuance of the tornado warning for northern Monroe County was not particularly strong. Looked like more of a downburst threat to me. I would've been perfectly fine with just a t-storm warning being issued.

I found the HWW issuance to be curious as well. According to the AFD, it was issued because of widespread reports of incoming power outages (~90k) in the wake of the convection moving through northern Oakland county. This was corroborated with strong <1 km AGL wind gusts observed by the vertical wind profiler from the White Lake radar. We had a fairly strong unidirectional wind flow with 50 kt winds at 850 mb. Any downdraft, no matter how weak, could mix some of these stronger wind gusts down to the surface; and that's what was observed in northern Oakland County. This is somewhat analogous to what you would see with a bowing segment, although the convection wasn't necessarily deep. Evaporative cooling in the stratiform region of the wake of the convection created a stable layer aloft and forced air to sink to the surface. Given the strong winds aloft, the sinking parcels also transferred some strong winds down to the surface over the localized area.

Unfortunately, this is something that's nearly impossible to model - because even CAMs struggle with cloud microphysics (the composition of water, ice, and mixed phase droplets in clouds; which have significant implications for MCS propagation, and in this case, the potential for damaging winds). So, the HWW was exclusively nowcasted with very limited data. I do agree that the HWW was a bit broad-brushed and was issued once the threat had mostly passed, but I also see arguments for why they felt the need to issue it.

[jadednihilist]

Are the storms heavier and more severe this summer, or does the newer warning system (marginal, slight, enhanced) for thunderstorms just make it feel this way? It feels like the “here’s another bad storm coming” from the local tv folks is a few times a week thing….

This has been a particularly active summer for the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Typically, stationary fronts position themselves right around the MI-OH/IN state line, and severe weather generally stays to our south. We've had an anomalously warm summer, which has pushed the boundary a bit farther north. This keeps us in the warm and humid sector, which makes our airmass a bit more buoyant and susceptible to the formation of strong storms.

It's also felt particularly active in the backdrop of what has been a rather benign period the past few years. Our local NWS office had went over 2000 days without issuing a Tornado Watch until this summer. But even factoring that, this has been undoubtedly an active summer. I expect some of the active weather to continue through at least the early fall as warmer than "average" temperatures are expected through the end of the month.

[MasterB]

I want the cool air to stay I'm tired of the warm weather please let it end after this weekend. I hope no more upper 80's or 90's I want it to be fall-like temps now.

[WOHO]

Cleveland NWS is calling for a 5th heat wave and 90 degree temps. Our "normal" for the last 30 years was just changed from 13 days of 90+ to 19 days of 90+ temps. We're already knocking on 30 days in 2021, and could have 4-5 more in the next 7 days at KTOL. (2012 had the most during that drought)

[BKRPDM]

Look like we’re overachieving quite a bit with wind gusts…45mph and slightly over in some spots…NOAA’s guidance was 37mph…surprised that a Wind Advisory wasn’t issued….

[BKRPDM]

The Tornado Warning for NE Oakland County was kind of a surprise last night, although the dew points have been relatively high lately (and it looks to continue for several days yet).

[Mega Hertz]

So, when do we get back to a more "normal" weather picture for this time of the year? Middle of October and I'm still wearing shorts and sleeveless shirts working outdoors.