Week of 8/30

[MWmetalhead]

No widespread big rains appear to be in the cards for lower Michigan for yet another week. Very patchy areas of southern & central lower Michigan did see impressive rainfall totals last night into this morning. Those seeing the most impressive totals were SW and northern Ottawa County, the Big Rapids area, and the Saginaw area down I-75 into portions of the Flint area. Some 2"+ totals were observed in these regions.

At my house, just under 0.4" fell. I wish I received triple that number, but I'm thankful for the rainfall I did receive.

There is a conditional threat of severe thunderstorms across mostly central and northern lower Michigan from Tuesday through Wednesday night. That threat could pivot into central & especially southern lower Michigan Thursday into early Friday, but confidence in the model data is currently far too low for me to place too much stock into that.

In terms of temps, the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and back into the central plains is likely to see the brunt of the heat wave forecasted for the coming week, but spokes from that hot air dome will give southern & central Michigan chances at 90+ degree temps for Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday of this week.

My forecasted high temps for Detroit and for Grand Rapids:

8/30: 76, 80
8/31: 81, 85
9/1: 90, 88
9/2: 91, 89
9/3: 89, 86
9/4: 80, 81
9/5: 79, 80
9/6: 79, 80

GFS model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 5PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 5PM temp for Grand Rapids:

8/30: 76, 83 (the GR temp is probably a few degrees too aggressive)
8/31: 76, 87 (the DET temp is too conservative)
9/1: 92, 85 (the GR temp is probably a few degrees too low)
9/2: 93, 87
9/3: 87, 90
9/4: 72, 80 (the DET temp is low due to rainfall)
9/5: 75, 78
9/6: 77, 75

Euro-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System) model run from 8AM this morning; first number is projected 2PM temp for Detroit and second number is projected 2PM temp for Grand Rapids (I was unable to obtain 5PM data from this source):

8/30: 72, 74
8/31: 79, 83
9/1: 85, 86
9/2: 88, 87
9/3: 84, 80
9/4: 80, 81
9/5: 77, 77
9/6: 77, 79

[Rate This]

This was the sunniest and warmest 86 or something I’ve ever experienced…

Lots of rain all the way to GR and back and I don’t know that I ever saw 80.

[MWmetalhead]

Capac and Emmett should be on the alert for potential quick tornado formation.

[MWmetalhead]

Tornado warning is now in effect.

[MegaHertz]

I didn't get a badass thunderstorm this summer. I still might have a chance but I won't hold my breath. I wish it would storm like a motherfucker right now!

I can hear the Brighton high band, football is in season and it's 90 degrees lol

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I didn't get a badass thunderstorm this summer. I still might have a chance but I won't hold my breath. I wish it would storm like a motherfucker right now!

I can hear the Brighton high band, football is in season and it's 90 degrees lol

We had one. Multiple trees down throughout our condo complex. $4500 later, and they got cut down and hauled out. 0/10, wouldn’t recommend.

[Rate This]

Looks like some storms just flared up out of thin air in Livingston and Oakland counties. 60mph gusts and half dollar hail.

[MWmetalhead]

70 mph gust measured in Howell. All of Metro Detroit is now under a warning with "tornado possible" tag.

Raining like crazy here. Training pattern is forming. Flash flooding could become an issue.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Yeah, it’s literally over Brighton.

Edit: I hope you are safe, MHZ. Looks like 3 hours of training for Warren. I just found it painfully ironic.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

This is getting intense and scary.

[MWmetalhead]

Yeah, it’s literally over Brighton.

Edit: I hope you are safe, MHZ. Looks like 3 hours of training for Warren. I just found it painfully ironic.

A couple miles south of Brighton has seen little rainfall from this system so far. Whitmore Lake has seen almost zero. Storms are trying to retire on the far western flank, so far SE Livingston might still get in on the action.

The NWS jumped the gun in issuing a warning for all of Washtenaw County so early. Ditto for southern half of Wayne County.

[hb2]

Flood warning Wayne/Oakland/macomb

[MWmetalhead]

I suspect severe thunderstorm warnings will start to be cancelled soon for most locations.

The NWDS looks really stupid for issuing the Washtenaw warning in particular. The vast majority the county has seen no rain yet!

[hb2]

I suspect severe thunderstorm warnings will start to be cancelled soon for most locations.

The NWDS looks really stupid for issuing the Washtenaw warning in particular. The vast majority the county has seen no rain yet!

Agree 100%. That was in my opinion a panic warning since the storms exploded from 0 to severe in mere minutes. They did more recently just trim it down to basically the NE half of Washtenaw county and dropped the wind threat to the baseline 60 mph, but keeping the 'tornado possible' tag. Livingston/Oakland/Macomb warnings are expired

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Polygon gone from Oakland County and Macomb County.