Michigan Radio & TV Buzzboard

This one has been in the models for quite a while now. By the end of next week, southeast Michigan could see an enormous amount of snow....possibly upwards of 2 feet.

Dude. Don't do this to me. I hate this shit so bad. A fucking foot of snow?! Depressing.

The big question is going to be just how much it snows before the main event towards the end of it - if you watch the models they show nearly continuous snow for 36-48 hours leading up to the heavy batch.

I am not buying most of Missouri gets a foot+ of snow. No way.

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:21 pm I am not buying most of Missouri gets a foot+ of snow. No way.

And I wouldn’t buy anything from a site called “tropicaltidbits.com,” whatever the hell that is.

It's a site to look at forecast models that's run by a Ph.D researcher. A lot of meteorologists use that site (and many other websites) to look at models, so you wouldn't buy their forecasts either?

The GFS a few days out always goes apeshit; you should always look at other models in addition to that one when you are trying to get a "feel" for what could happen. No computer model is remotely perfect; hell, the "gold standard" Euro model has been out to lunch numerous occasions.

Also, the Euro has barely a foot of snow plotted for most of Missouri at 0z Saturday. Highest amount I can see is 9". The GFS has 21"+ for some portions. One of them is on crack, I'll let you guess which one it is. (Sidenote: the GFS also has almost 2 feet of snow for my location (Ypsilanti); the Euro has barely a foot.)

Again, models will vary wildly that far out, so do not take any output beyond 90 hours seriously unless you know how to ensemble and blend the models together.

FWIW, I prefer Pivotal Weather when looking at weather models. Nicer layout and the maps look a lot better than the ones on Tropical Tidbits.

Latest updates are pushing everything a bit further south, including the heaviest band of snow to the Michigan/Ohio border or even into northern Ohio.

I saw Bill's blog on Wood TV model he posted looked about 6inches of snow for Kazoo & BC looked to be east where I live on the Westside of town where that is the Snowbelt for lake effect snow. But have to check the models tomorrow & Mon that may be where you will get the total snow range, I saw WWMT show a model that had like 15inches of snow for Wed & Thur which I thought they shouldn't have done that until a few days closer to the storm on Noon newscast on Fri. Wood TV just put 6+ inches of snow on the 6PM newscast on Fri WXMI Fox17 didn't put any totals just saying watch the forecast in the coming days.

Note that I said that I don't buy those totals for Missouri. The Tuesday forecast calls for highs in the 50s for both St. Louis and Kansas City.

For Michigan, I can easily see 12-15 inches of snow this time of year. It will get up to 41 the day before the storm, but that won't heat the ground up to withstand 48 hours of snow. Until I see the NAM, GFS, or European models showing over a foot Monday, I won't be too worried. The biggest concern I would have is losing power like I did in March 2017.

I think GFS (Gordon Food Service*) is trying to get you to panic and go out and buy easily prepared meals to eat while snowed in. Actually, not a bad strategy.

*Second highest acronym usage of GFS. The weather service is third.

On January 26, 1967, and exactly 11 years later, on January 26, 1978 (radio people recognized the sunspot cycle relationship possibility), there was a storm dumping 23 inches of snow over the whole Southern Great Lakes Region.

WXYZ meteorologist Mike Taylor does a great job. Does not get all crazy about totals, and seems to keep things in perspective and facts that he sees. Yesterday he said it’s was too early to give totals as the storm was in the pacific and making its way.

I do like his freak out meter that I am sure will come out in the next few days

Even further south...GOOD...OHIO CAN HAVE IT!

6-10 inches looks to be a good bet for SE Michigan, maybe approaching a foot right near the border.

bmw wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:21 am Even further south...GOOD...OHIO CAN HAVE IT!

6-10 inches looks to be a good bet for SE Michigan, maybe approaching a foot right near the border.

I’m in the 11/12/19 area… no thanks. What exact days are we talking snow?