I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

[Thunderstorm]

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1221 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 07/24/21 WHITE LAKE TORNADO...
...Tornado Confirmed...

.OVERVIEW...One tornado was confirmed in west-central Oakland County. This tornado
impacted portions of White Lake, with damage up to EF-1 intensity and winds to
100 mph. The last tornado to impact Oakland County was an EF-1 in Rochester Hills on
September 21, 2014.

Rating: EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph
Path Length /statute/: 1.8 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 400 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 1

Start Date: 07/24/2021
Start Time: 754 PM EDT
Start Location: 1 mile NNE White Lake
Start Lat/Lon: 42.6699, -83.4966

End Date: 07/24/2021
End Time: 757 PM EDT
End Location: 5 mile SSW Clarkston
End Lat/Lon: 42.6731, -83.4644

SURVEY_SUMMARY:

A tornado touched down 1 mile NNE of White Lake just west of the intersection
of Teggerdine Rd and Pontiac Lake Rd. The tornado began as an EF-0 in which
several healthy trees were uprooted and snapped. The tornado then tracked southeast
toward a neighborhood at the intersection of Pontiac Lake Rd and Howland Blvd where
it produced EF-1 damage, including shingle and roof damage, garage damage with one
garage door completely blown off, and numerous healthy trees uprooted and snapped.
A house was damaged when multiple pine trees fell onto it, resulting in one minor
injury. The tornado then tracked to the northeast and crossed Pontiac Lake Rd before
tracking across Pontiac Lake as an EF-0, in which it produced shingle damage and
uprooted numerous trees in neighborhoods located on the peninsula north of Pontiac
Lake Rd along Buckingham St and a second peninsula off of Gale Rd near Tackles Dr.
The tornado then tracked northeast of the peninsulas and lifted while over the water
on Pontiac Lake prior to reaching Gale Rd.

[Thunderstorm]

not uploading for some reason

[Thunderstorm]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
504 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2021

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 07/24/21 ARMADA TORNADO
..TORNADO CONFIRMED


OVERVIEW
ONE TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED IN NORTHERN MACOMB COUNTY. THIS
TORNADO IMPACTED ARMADA, WITH DAMAGE UP TO EF-1 INTENSITY PEAK WINDS
TO 105 MPH. THE LAST TORNADO TO IMPACT MACOMB COUNTY WAS AN EF-0 NEAR
RAY TWP ON AUGUST 20, 2014.

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 105 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 3.6 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 700 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 07/24/2021
START TIME: 754 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 5 MILES ENE ROMEO
START LAT/LON: 42.8355, -82.9075

END DATE: 07/24/2021
END TIME: 808 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 2 MILES NNE ARMADA
END_LAT/LON: 42.8746, -82.8651

[Thunderstorm]

SURVEY_SUMMARY:

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CITY OF ARMADA, AROUND
THE INTERSECTION OF 34 MI AND ARMADA RIDGE RD. INITIAL DAMAGE CONSISTED
OF PLENTIFUL TREE DAMAGE AND SPORADIC ROOFING DAMAGE MAINLY TO SHINGLES.
INITIAL DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN EF0 TORNADO.

TORNADO THEN INCREASED IN STRENGTH TO AN EF1 TORNADO ON MAIN ST ON THE WEST SIDE OF ARMADA.
DAMAGE IN THE CITY CONSISTED OF MASSIVE TREE DAMAGE WITH UPROOTED AND
SHEARED TREES. SEVERAL RESIDENTIAL HOMES OBSERVED SHINGLE DAMAGE, WITH
A COUPLE OF HOUSES EXHIBITING MORE SEVERE DAMAGE TO THE ROOFING STRUCTURE
AS ROOFING MATERIAL WAS REMOVED FROM THE HOME. ONE HOUSE LOST ALL ROOFING,
WITH THE UPPER WALLS THEN COLLAPSING.

THE TORNADO THEN TRACKED NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SCHOOL COMPLEXES IN TOWN, DROPPING IN INTENSITY DOWN TO EF0.
DAMAGE OBSERVED AT THIS POINT INCLUDED SEVERAL UPROOTED TREES AND LARGE
LIMBS SNAPPED. THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS OMO AND
FLORENCE RD, RESTRENGTHENING TO AN EF1, WHERE A RESIDENTIAL HOME LOST A
LARGE SECTION OF ROOFING. THE TORNADO BRIEFLY CONTINUED UP OMO RD
BEFORE LIFTING.

[Thunderstorm]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
401 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2021


..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 07/24/21 CLAYTON TWP TORNADO

..TORNADO CONFIRMED


OVERVIEW
ONE TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED IN WESTERN GENESEE COUNTY.
THIS TORNADO IMPACTED CLAYTON TWP WITH DAMAGE UP TO EF-1 INTENSITY
CORRELATING TO ESTIMATED PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF 100 MPH. THE LAST TORNADO
EVENT IN GENESEE COUNTY TOOK PLACE ON MARCH 14, 2019, WHERE ONE EF0
TORNADO IMPACTED LENNON AND A SECOND EF0 TORNADO IMPACTED GENESEE CHARTER
TWP.

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 1.9 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 200 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: 07/24/2021
START TIME: 621 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 3 MILE S FLUSHING
START LAT/LON: 43.022, -83.847

END DATE: 07/24/2021
END TIME: 626 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 4 MILE SSE FLUSHING
END_LAT/LON: 43.007, -83.816

[Thunderstorm]

SURVEY_SUMMARY:

THE TORNADO PATH EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF CALKINS AND NORTH
MCKINLEY RD, JUST WEST OF ELMS RD BETWEEN CORUNNA AND CALKINS RD.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE, CONSISTENT WITH EF1 DAMAGE, WAS ALONG
CALKINS RD, WEST OF MORRISH ROAD; AND ALONG MORRISH ROAD, SOUTH OF
CALKINS RD.

NOTABLE DAMAGE INCLUDED THREE GARAGES THAT WERE EITHER
PARTIALLY OR COMPLETELY DESTROYED. ADDITIONAL DAMAGE INCLUDED
MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO ADJACENT HOMES, INCLUDING THE LOSS OF
ROOFING MATERIALS AND SIDING. THERE WAS SPORADIC TREE AND CROP
DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH.

[Thunderstorm]

NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 07/24/2021 PORT AUSTIN TORNADO

..TORNADO CONFIRMED


OVERVIEW
ONE TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED IN NORTHERN HURON COUNTY EAST OF PORT AUSTIN.
THIS TORNADO PRODUCED DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH EF-0 INTENSITY, WITH WINDS UP TO
80 MPH. THE LAST TORNADO TO IMPACT HURON COUNTY WAS AN EF-2 IN PORT AUSTIN ON JUNE
26, 2021.

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 2.9 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: JULY 24, 2021
START TIME: 436 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 1 MILE E PORT AUSTIN
START LAT/LON: 44.039, -82.969

END DATE: JULY 24, 2021
END TIME: 450 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 4 MI E PORT AUSTIN
END LAT/LON: 44.040, -82.911

SURVEY_SUMMARY:

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF N HELLMAN AND GRINDSTONE RD,
1 MILE EAST OF PORT AUSTIN. SHORTLY AFTER THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN, AN OUTBUILDING
WAS DESTROYED, MARKING ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 MPH WINDS. AS THE TORNADO TRACKED
EAST, A FIELD OF SOYBEAN CROPS WAS DAMAGED. NUMEROUS TREES WERE THEN DAMAGED AS THE
TORNADO APPROACHED SULLIVAN RD, IN WHICH THE DAMAGE SWATH WAS APPROXIMATELY 50 YARDS
IN WIDTH. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD, CAUSING DAMAGE TO A FENCE LINE
BEFORE LIFTING JUST PRIOR TO REACHING TOMLINSON RD.

[jadednihilist]

Keep an eye out on the Thumb and mid-Michigan today for isolate strong to severe storms this evening. There's another weak 500 mb shortwave moving in across Lake Michigan. There's also a bit of a temperature boundary set up from what's left of storms that formed in the northern plains yesterday across Mid-Michigan. Surface-based instability is gradually building according to the high res models and the shortwave will also provide enough shear for organized convection.

The local NWS discussion rightly points out a fairly strong cap just above the surface, but temps in the mid-upper 80s + lake/convective boundaries should be enough for scattered deep convection (storms) to get going. The best chance is definitely north of the metro area around Midland to Saginaw Bay and the Thumb.

Down here, there's less shear and fewer triggers, so the probability of seeing anything today quite a bit lower. An isolated pop up storm is possible with brief heavy rain and perhaps a strong wind gust, but any storm that pops up would be highly localized and die off fairly quickly.

Tomorrow night, models develop an intense line of storms in Wisconsin. Models do bring that line across Lake Michigan overnight, but differ in having the storms nosediving into Indiana and Ohio or moving through our area. Given that models cannot resolve this kind of messy convection more than one diurnal cycle out, we'll just have to wait until tomorrow to see how the setup unfolds. As of right now, I would lean towards a more muted severe threat locally given that the atmosphere should be more stable by the time of night they'd likely arrive here.

[jadednihilist]

Good job by DTX for focusing on the Thumb today and the SPC for maintaining the marginal risk!

Regarding tomorrow, I will add that H*** caveats must be attached to models (especially CAMs) in these summer patterns. They don't resolve mesoscale features that are critical for convective initiation well and can have errors of ~100 mi or more. I've been spending the past hour trying to find the trigger for tomorrow's convection and it's different in each model. The broad driving pattern is a strong upper level ridge centered somewhere around Nebraska or Kansas, leaving the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes under northwesterly flow. There's also plenty of heat and humidity extending into northern Minnesota, where convective initiation looks to occur. I don't see much run-to-run consistency with the northward extend of instability or upper-level shortwave features that could act as a trigger. A quick look at satellite loops also isn't providing much clue. Old school hand surface and upper air analysis and satellite monitoring seems the way to go here. That uncertainty is likely what's precluding a categorical risk upgrade to Moderate.

That said, there's a lot that can be said about the overall environment, regardless of where the storms eventually set up. Instability will be off the charts in Wisconsin and it won't take long for the convection to grow upscale into a fast moving damaging squall line. I definitely agree that things don't look good for Wisconsin or SW Michigan. However, I would certainly advise people in SEMI (especially in the western suburbs) to still keep an eye on the weather tomorrow just in case.

[jadednihilist]

Wow. I'm looking at the 00Z Upper Air soundings and this jet stream is just absolutely wicked for this time of year. It's even somewhat respectable for a springtime setup, especially at 500 mb (70 knots in Manitoba). There's also a 100-110kt jet streak at 250 mb extending from British Columbia into Alberta this evening. That's the upper air support this beast has to work with tomorrow as it enters a deeply unstable airmass.

I am really not liking how tomorrow is going to be for Minnesota/Wisconsin and where ever downstream of whatever develops is moving, especially if the models are handling instability right.

Images from: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/

250 mb


500 mb