2024 General Election Polling Thread

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Odds and EV Predictions...

538:
Trump 53% Chance
Harris 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 59
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 343 EV's
Harris 195 EV's

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 278 EV's
Harris 241 EV's
Tied 19 EV's (Pennsylvania)

This is making me fucking sick. I know it’s all hypothetical, even now, but goddamn.


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Prayer is required about now. We still have hope but the same campaign playbook they tried in 2022 to make it look like a red wave is coming has been trotted out again but on steroids.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Odds and EV Predictions...

538:
Trump 53% Chance
Harris 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 59
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 343 EV's
Harris 195 EV's

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 278 EV's
Harris 241 EV's
Tied 19 EV's (Pennsylvania)

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October 25

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

New York Times / Siena
National:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 48

CNN
National:
Trump 47
Harris 47

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 45

Rasmussen Reports*
National:
Harris 48
Trump 47

[thatonedude]

October 25

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

New York Times / Siena
National:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 48

CNN
National:
Trump 47
Harris 47

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 45

Rasmussen Reports*
National:
Harris 48
Trump 47

I’m still believing that the polls are undersampling younger voters. Still, this is horrifying to me that they’re tied on the CNN and NYT polls.


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October 25

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

New York Times / Siena
National:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 48

CNN
National:
Trump 47
Harris 47

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 45

Rasmussen Reports*
National:
Harris 48
Trump 47

I’m still believing that the polls are undersampling younger voters. Still, this is horrifying to me that they’re tied on the CNN and NYT polls.


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I agree there is some undersampling of young voters, women or both. As it looks now it’s absolutely incredible how close it is.

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Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 53% Chance
Harris 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 62
Harris 44

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 278
Harris 241
Tied 19 (Pennsylvania)

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October 26

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

Washington Post
Virginia:
Harris 49
Trump 43

The Dartmouth Poll
New Hampshire:
Harris 59
Trump 38

HarrisX
Utah:
Trump 63
Harris 31

Cygnal*
New Jersey:
Harris 52
Trump 40

Mason-Dixon
South Dakota:
Trump 59
Harris 33

PPIC
California:
Harris 59
Trump 33

Emerson
National:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 48

TIPP
National:
Trump 48
Harris 48

[Matt]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris- ... =115083875

51-47 Harris for likely voters.

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https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris- ... =115083875

51-47 Harris for likely voters.

See the reality is that the race is remarkably stable… actually she GAINED two from the last poll they did.

[thatonedude]

That's a good sign... still hoping she pulls this off.

[TC Talks]

My kid had many classes taught by Litchman and he is questioning Litchman's methodology this year. In other words, it's a tremendously close race and the savants are squabbling.

The feud between historian Allan Lichtman and prognosticator Nate Silver is heating up on social media as Election Day approaches.

Lichtman, an American University professor who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, earlier this month forecasted that the Kamala Harris-Tim Walz ticket would win the White House.

Since then, Silver, a political pollster and founder of FiveThirtyEight, released data showing vice president Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump in the national polling average by nearly three points – 48.9% to 46% – but Trump and vice presidential candidate JD Vance have a 56.2% chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris-Walz (43.5%).

Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman, shown here answering questions during an interview with AFP in Bethesda, Md. on Sept. 7, 2024, uses a model of 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election.

On Friday, Silver questioned Lichtman's abilities to read his own 13 keys used to make presidential election calls. "At least 7 of the keys, maybe 8, clearly favor Trump. Sorry brother, but that's what the keys say. Unless you're admitting they're totally arbitrary?" Silver posted on X, the social media site previously known as Twitter.

To that, Lichtman responded back on X that Silver "claims to have applied my keys to predict a Trump victory. He doesn’t have the faintest idea how to turn the keys."

Lichtman continued: "He’s not a historian or a political scientist. He has no academic credentials. He was wrong when he said I could not make an early prediction of Obama‘s re-election (in 2010). He’ll be wrong again in trying to analyze the keys."

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Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 54% Chance
Harris 45% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 61
Harris 42

Virtual Tout:
Trump 367 EV’s
Harris 171 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 278 EV’s
Harris 241 EV’s
Tied 19 EV’s (Pennsylvania)

[TC Talks]

Nate Silvers read on things today...

Why Trump could beat his polls
The people whose gut tells them Mr. Trump will win frequently invoke the notion of shy Trump voters. The theory, adopted from the term “shy Tories” for the tendency of British polls to underestimate Conservatives, is that people do not want to admit to voting for conservative parties because of the social stigma attached to them.

Why Harris could beat her polls
A surprise in polling that underestimates Ms. Harris isn’t necessarily less likely than one for Mr. Trump. On average, polls miss by three or four points. If Ms. Harris does that, she will win by the largest margin in both the popular vote and the Electoral College since Mr. Obama in 2008.

How might that happen? It could be because of something like what happened in Britain in 2017, related to the shy Tories theory. Expected to be a Tory sweep, the election instead resulted in Conservatives losing their majority. There was a lot of disagreement among pollsters, and some did nail the outcome. But others made the mistake of not trusting their data, making ad hoc adjustments after years of being worried about shy Tories.

Unlocked
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opin ... =url-share

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October 27

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

Beemer Swing States Today:
Arizona (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)

Hunt Research
Florida:
Trump 50
Harris 45

Trafalgar Group*
Arizona:
Trump 48
Harris 46

Georgia:
Trump 48
Harris 46

Insider Advantage*
Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 47

East Carolina University
South Carolina:
Trump 55
Harris 42

The Hill / Emerson
Montana:
Trump 58
Harris 39

ABC News / Ipsos
National:
Harris 51
Trump 47

CBS News
National:
Harris 50
Trump 49

TIPP*
National:
Trump 48
Harris 48

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Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 54% Chance
Harris 46% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 45

Virtual Tout:
Trump 364 EV’s
Harris 174 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 278 EV’s
Harris 241 EV’s
Tied 19 EV’s (Wisconsin)