2024 General Election Polling Thread

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Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s
Now in what world could Trump start winning something Harris outside of the 7 swing states? Impossible.

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 271 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 21 EV’s (Michigan and Nevada)

They should be called virtual farce.

Did you catch the James-Marlinga result from yesterday’s polls?

I did, and I am actually surprised it is that close. James has been pummeling us with lit. Tons of lit calling Marlinga a pedo. I guess that's what happens when you worry about your seat. Would be interested to know what the margin of error was in that 49-46(James leading) poll.

400 LV surveyed October 14-16… margin of error is +/- 4.9%

I noticed good ole JJ has pivoted from Trump and is talking about gun control now. Marlinga made a solid point that JJ's company is bringing in foreign goods from China. He needs to hammer that home to stay in the race. 4.9 is a wide margin of error.

I am in the camp that as goes this race and the 58th state race, so goes Kamala for taking the state. Our district is around R+1.

I don't think a Democrat ever wins Macomb County for years and years. Kinda of weird that things shifted around 2015 for myself and the county. I went more blue and the county went decidedly red. Just weird how that I have been the opposite of the average Macomb County voter in most races for my whole life.

That's gonna be the thing. How many Haley folks are hanging out in Macomb County? Some of the indications I've seen are that he may lose 15% of Republicans courtesy of that block. That would be mighty hard to survive. It does not sound like they are anymore impressed with him now than they were when voting against him in the primaries and that's no surprise... 15-20% were voting against him after he had the nomination and she dropped out.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s
Now in what world could Trump start winning something Harris outside of the 7 swing states? Impossible.

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 271 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 21 EV’s (Michigan and Nevada)

They should be called virtual farce.

Did you catch the James-Marlinga result from yesterday’s polls?

I did, and I am actually surprised it is that close. James has been pummeling us with lit. Tons of lit calling Marlinga a pedo. I guess that's what happens when you worry about your seat. Would be interested to know what the margin of error was in that 49-46(James leading) poll.

400 LV surveyed October 14-16… margin of error is +/- 4.9%

I noticed good ole JJ has pivoted from Trump and is talking about gun control now. Marlinga made a solid point that JJ's company is bringing in foreign goods from China. He needs to hammer that home to stay in the race. 4.9 is a wide margin of error.

I am in the camp that as goes this race and the 58th state race, so goes Kamala for taking the state. Our district is around R+1.

I don't think a Democrat ever wins Macomb County for years and years. Kinda of weird that things shifted around 2015 for myself and the county. I went more blue and the county went decidedly red. Just weird how that I have been the opposite of the average Macomb County voter in most races for my whole life.

That's gonna be the thing. How many Haley folks are hanging out in Macomb County? Some of the indications I've seen are that he may lose 15% of Republicans courtesy of that block. That would be mighty hard to survive. It does not sound like they are anymore impressed with him now than they were when voting against him in the primaries and that's no surprise... 15-20% were voting against him after he had the nomination and she dropped out.

My dad voted for Haley, but he will bend the knee to Trumpler…..because the babies don’t cha know…

He loves purity culture just like audio. He would turn the internet off when I was in college commuting just so my brother and I wouldn’t watch porn.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s
Now in what world could Trump start winning something Harris outside of the 7 swing states? Impossible.

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 271 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 21 EV’s (Michigan and Nevada)

They should be called virtual farce.

Did you catch the James-Marlinga result from yesterday’s polls?

I did, and I am actually surprised it is that close. James has been pummeling us with lit. Tons of lit calling Marlinga a pedo. I guess that's what happens when you worry about your seat. Would be interested to know what the margin of error was in that 49-46(James leading) poll.

400 LV surveyed October 14-16… margin of error is +/- 4.9%

I noticed good ole JJ has pivoted from Trump and is talking about gun control now. Marlinga made a solid point that JJ's company is bringing in foreign goods from China. He needs to hammer that home to stay in the race. 4.9 is a wide margin of error.

I am in the camp that as goes this race and the 58th state race, so goes Kamala for taking the state. Our district is around R+1.

I don't think a Democrat ever wins Macomb County for years and years. Kinda of weird that things shifted around 2015 for myself and the county. I went more blue and the county went decidedly red. Just weird how that I have been the opposite of the average Macomb County voter in most races for my whole life.

That's gonna be the thing. How many Haley folks are hanging out in Macomb County? Some of the indications I've seen are that he may lose 15% of Republicans courtesy of that block. That would be mighty hard to survive. It does not sound like they are anymore impressed with him now than they were when voting against him in the primaries and that's no surprise... 15-20% were voting against him after he had the nomination and she dropped out.

My dad voted for Haley, but he will bend the knee to Trumpler…..because the babies don’t cha know…

He loves purity culture just like audio. He would turn the internet off when I was in college commuting just so my brother and I wouldn’t watch porn.

How fun… I have a sense of pushing against some large object pushing us towards a cliff and we are all pushing back and still moving sparks flying out from underneath… the brakes not quite holding it back. Maybe just maybe like in a movie it stops moving at the last possible moment as frantic and dramatic music plays.

As an aside… when the Statue of Liberty says this:

“Give me your tired, your poor, / Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free”

There is every chance the places those people came from said “good riddance and don’t let the door hit you on the way out”. It’s also noteworthy that the sentiment expressed there about who was coming over… some of the descendants of which are now Trumpers are really railing against people in the same circumstances their ancestors came with while believing they were perfectly honest people with no problems or faults.

Odds and EV predictions…

538:
Trump 52% Chance
Harris 48% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 58
Harris 48

Virtual Tout:
Trump 324 EV’s
Harris 214 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 268 EV’s
Harris 260 EV’s
Tied 10 EV’s (Wisconsin)

[Turkeytop]

[teetoppz28]

Odds and EV predictions…

PredictIt:
Trump 58
Harris 48

Something tells me math is hard for this organization?

[Rate This]

Odds and EV predictions…

PredictIt:
Trump 58
Harris 48

Something tells me math is hard for this organization?

The numbers in a betting market don’t add to 100 because the house gets a cut.

[teetoppz28]

Odds and EV predictions…

PredictIt:
Trump 58
Harris 48

Something tells me math is hard for this organization?

The numbers in a betting market don’t add to 100 because the house gets a cut.

Ah, that makes sense. You can tell I don't gamble or bet! Apart from the odd slot pulls on the cruise ship when I have onboard credits.

[Matt]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/h ... arris-wins

I’ve been wondering if George W. Bush himself will weigh in on this election. Bush may be taking a pragmatic view that even if he did want Harris to win, coming out and saying so might not be helping her.

The people who would listen to Bush are people who are listening to Liz Cheney. Far be it from me to judge what a former president should do and the role they should play, but in an empirical, political science sense, if a former Republican president, George Bush, announced support for the Democrat, would it help? Yes.

Who do you think is going to win this election?

Harris is going to win fairly comfortably. I think Harris is gonna win by a larger margin than 2020. [Republicans are] gonna say this election was rigged, and the Republican Party is going to fail again. And it’s going to be very, very ugly. And you can look at what these states are doing to protect [vote] counting centers, and take comfort in that, but what [the GOP] is saying is we’re preparing to win a pitched battle over a counting center.

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https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/h ... arris-wins

I’ve been wondering if George W. Bush himself will weigh in on this election. Bush may be taking a pragmatic view that even if he did want Harris to win, coming out and saying so might not be helping her.

The people who would listen to Bush are people who are listening to Liz Cheney. Far be it from me to judge what a former president should do and the role they should play, but in an empirical, political science sense, if a former Republican president, George Bush, announced support for the Democrat, would it help? Yes.

Who do you think is going to win this election?

Harris is going to win fairly comfortably. I think Harris is gonna win by a larger margin than 2020. [Republicans are] gonna say this election was rigged, and the Republican Party is going to fail again. And it’s going to be very, very ugly. And you can look at what these states are doing to protect [vote] counting centers, and take comfort in that, but what [the GOP] is saying is we’re preparing to win a pitched battle over a counting center.

Fascinating read thanks for posting it!

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October 24

Beemer Swing States Today:
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona

* Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

Franklin & Marshall
Pennsylvania:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Emerson
Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Wisconsin:
Trump 49
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Marist
North Carolina:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Bowling Green / YouGov
Ohio:
Trump 50
Harris 43

WHDH-TV Boston / Emerson
New Hampshire:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Critical Insights
Maine:
Harris 48
Trump 41

The Hill / Emerson
South Dakota:
Trump 62
Harris 35

TIPP*
National:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Rasmussen Reports*
National:
Trump 49
Harris 47

CNBC*
Trump 48
Harris 46

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 44
**Poll was conducted by Ron Desantis's pollster.

Wall Street Journal*
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 49
Democrats 45
**Poll conducted by Donald Trump's pollster.

[TC Talks]

Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are locked in a dead heat for the popular vote, 48 percent to 48 percent, the final national poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found, as Ms. Harris struggles for an edge over Mr. Trump with an electorate that seems impossibly and immovably divided.

The result, coming less than two weeks before Election Day, and as millions of Americans have already voted, is not encouraging for Ms. Harris. In recent elections, Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College and thus the White House. They have been looking to Ms. Harris to build a strong national lead as a sign that she would do well in such critical swing states as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[Nate Cohn evaluates whether Donald Trump could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College.]

Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump remain effectively tied even after three of the most tumultuous months in recent American political history. A high-profile debate, two attempts on Mr. Trump’s life, dozens of rallies across seven battlefield states and hundreds of millions spent on advertisements have seemingly done little to change the trajectory of the race.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... stabs.html

[Matt]

Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are locked in a dead heat for the popular vote, 48 percent to 48 percent, the final national poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found, as Ms. Harris struggles for an edge over Mr. Trump with an electorate that seems impossibly and immovably divided.

The result, coming less than two weeks before Election Day, and as millions of Americans have already voted, is not encouraging for Ms. Harris. In recent elections, Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College and thus the White House. They have been looking to Ms. Harris to build a strong national lead as a sign that she would do well in such critical swing states as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[Nate Cohn evaluates whether Donald Trump could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College.]

Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump remain effectively tied even after three of the most tumultuous months in recent American political history. A high-profile debate, two attempts on Mr. Trump’s life, dozens of rallies across seven battlefield states and hundreds of millions spent on advertisements have seemingly done little to change the trajectory of the race.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... stabs.html

Man, Trump's only hope is the undereducated white trash male.

[Matt]

Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are locked in a dead heat for the popular vote, 48 percent to 48 percent, the final national poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found, as Ms. Harris struggles for an edge over Mr. Trump with an electorate that seems impossibly and immovably divided.

The result, coming less than two weeks before Election Day, and as millions of Americans have already voted, is not encouraging for Ms. Harris. In recent elections, Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College and thus the White House. They have been looking to Ms. Harris to build a strong national lead as a sign that she would do well in such critical swing states as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[Nate Cohn evaluates whether Donald Trump could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College.]

Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump remain effectively tied even after three of the most tumultuous months in recent American political history. A high-profile debate, two attempts on Mr. Trump’s life, dozens of rallies across seven battlefield states and hundreds of millions spent on advertisements have seemingly done little to change the trajectory of the race.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... stabs.html

Man, Trump's only hope is the undereducated white trash male.

Speaking of white trash: https://www.on3.com/news/former-preside ... tate-game/

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions...

538:
Trump 53% Chance
Harris 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 59
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 343 EV's
Harris 195 EV's

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 278 EV's
Harris 241 EV's
Tied 19 EV's (Pennsylvania)

[thatonedude]

Odds and EV Predictions...

538:
Trump 53% Chance
Harris 47% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 59
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 343 EV's
Harris 195 EV's

Electoral-vote.com:
Trump 278 EV's
Harris 241 EV's
Tied 19 EV's (Pennsylvania)

This is making me fucking sick. I know it’s all hypothetical, even now, but goddamn.


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