2024 General Election Polling Thread

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Thanks for the kind words. I don’t think people realize what a clusterfuck it is to have your life dictated by an election.

My big ask that you not minimize the threat a Trump administration would cause us. He’s not just talking about “illegals” when he is referencing the enemy within. He is talking about judges, activists, and LGBT folks.

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Thanks for the kind words. I don’t think people realize what a clusterfuck it is to have your life dictated by an election.

My big ask that you not minimize the threat a Trump administration would cause us. He’s not just talking about “illegals” when he is referencing the enemy within. He is talking about judges, activists, and LGBT folks.

If he could figure it out he’s talking about all of us who have criticized him here too quite frankly. Should he win sooner or later it will come down to people rising up and resisting their insanity. But if you’re not bowing down to dear leader you can consider yourself an enemy within. Certainly there may or may not be bumper stickers working with that wording in some way at some point.

If being a decent human being makes someone an enemy within then I wear that label as a badge of honor.

[Mega Hertz]

Thanks for the kind words. I don’t think people realize what a clusterfuck it is to have your life dictated by an election.

My big ask that you not minimize the threat a Trump administration would cause us. He’s not just talking about “illegals” when he is referencing the enemy within. He is talking about judges, activists, and LGBT folks.

You know I've got your back, too. No need to unalive yourself. Like TCT said, you have a community here.

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October 22

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

George Mason University
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Arizona:
Trump 49
Harris 46

Georgia:
Harris 51
Trump 47

North Carolina:
Trump 50
Harris 47

Nevada:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Pennsylvania:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Wisconsin:
Harris 50
Trump 47

WDIV-TV Detroit / Detroit News
Michigan 10th:
James 47
Marlinga 44

Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Georgia:
Trump 47
Harris 43

Insider Advantage*
North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 47

High Point / Survey USA
North Carolina:
Harris 47
Trump 46

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Nevada:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Siena
New York:
Harris 58
Trump 39

Reuters / Ipsos
National:
Harris 48
Trump 45

Morning Consult
National:
Harris 50
Trump 46

TIPP*
National:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Rasmussen Reports*
National:
Trump 48
Harris 47

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Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s
Now in what world could Trump start winning something Harris outside of the 7 swing states? Impossible.

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 271 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 21 EV’s (Michigan and Nevada)

[TC Talks]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Predictit loaded up with Trumpers who aren't paying attention to actual results.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Predictit loaded up with Trumpers who aren't paying attention to actual results.

I’m almost certain that’s what this is. They are so sure of themselves the same way Beemer is despite ample evidence caution is called for that they believe they are making the correct choice.

[TC Talks]

Last update: 3 p.m., Wednesday, October 23. Our model hasn’t moved much over the past several days after Trump's gains last week. In fact, it was kind of a sky-is-not-falling polling day for Harris, with high-quality surveys showing good numbers for her in North Carolina and Michigan and a rebound in a national tracking poll that had shown her behind. It remains hard to know what to expect, other than the fact that this is a really close race.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Predictit loaded up with Trumpers who aren't paying attention to actual results.

I’m almost certain that’s what this is. They are so sure of themselves the same way Beemer is despite ample evidence caution is called for that they believe they are making the correct choice.

We are going to find out who is living in a bubble and who isn’t very soon.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s
Now in what world could Trump start winning something Harris outside of the 7 swing states? Impossible.

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 271 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 21 EV’s (Michigan and Nevada)

They should be called virtual farce.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s
Now in what world could Trump start winning something Harris outside of the 7 swing states? Impossible.

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 271 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 21 EV’s (Michigan and Nevada)

They should be called virtual farce.

Did you catch the James-Marlinga result from yesterday’s polls?

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s
Now in what world could Trump start winning something Harris outside of the 7 swing states? Impossible.

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 271 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 21 EV’s (Michigan and Nevada)

They should be called virtual farce.

Did you catch the James-Marlinga result from yesterday’s polls?

I did, and I am actually surprised it is that close. James has been pummeling us with lit. Tons of lit calling Marlinga a pedo. I guess that's what happens when you worry about your seat. Would be interested to know what the margin of error was in that 49-46(James leading) poll.

[Rate This]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s
Now in what world could Trump start winning something Harris outside of the 7 swing states? Impossible.

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 271 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 21 EV’s (Michigan and Nevada)

They should be called virtual farce.

Did you catch the James-Marlinga result from yesterday’s polls?

I did, and I am actually surprised it is that close. James has been pummeling us with lit. Tons of lit calling Marlinga a pedo. I guess that's what happens when you worry about your seat. Would be interested to know what the margin of error was in that 49-46(James leading) poll.

400 LV surveyed October 14-16… margin of error is +/- 4.9%

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Trump 51% Chance
Harris 49% Chance

PredictIt:
Trump 60
Harris 43

Virtual Tout:
Trump 346 EV’s
Harris 192 EV’s
Now in what world could Trump start winning something Harris outside of the 7 swing states? Impossible.

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 271 EV’s
Trump 246 EV’s
Tied 21 EV’s (Michigan and Nevada)

They should be called virtual farce.

Did you catch the James-Marlinga result from yesterday’s polls?

I did, and I am actually surprised it is that close. James has been pummeling us with lit. Tons of lit calling Marlinga a pedo. I guess that's what happens when you worry about your seat. Would be interested to know what the margin of error was in that 49-46(James leading) poll.

400 LV surveyed October 14-16… margin of error is +/- 4.9%

I noticed good ole JJ has pivoted from Trump and is talking about gun control now. Marlinga made a solid point that JJ's company is bringing in foreign goods from China. He needs to hammer that home to stay in the race. 4.9 is a wide margin of error.

I am in the camp that as goes this race and the 58th state race, so goes Kamala for taking the state. Our district is around R+1.

I don't think a Democrat ever wins Macomb County for years and years. Kinda of weird that things shifted around 2015 for myself and the county. I went more blue and the county went decidedly red. Just weird how that I have been the opposite of the average Macomb County voter in most races for my whole life.

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October 23

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada

*Denotes Suspect GOP Pollster

Bloomberg
Michigan:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 48

North Carolina:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Pennsylvania:
Harris 50
Trump 48

Wisconsin:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Nevada:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Quinnipiac
Michigan:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 52
Rogers 44

Wisconsin:
Trump 48
Harris 48

The Hill / Emerson
Florida:
Trump 52
Harris 44

Texas:
Trump 53
Harris 46

Maryland:
Harris 63
Trump 33

Marist
North Carolina:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Arizona:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Economist / YouGov
National:
Harris 49
Trump 46
Stein 1
West 0

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47
Republicans 47

Wall Street Journal
National:
Trump 49
Harris 46

Forbes / HarrisX*
National:
Trump 51
Harris 49

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 46

Rasmussen Reports*
National:
Trump 49
Harris 46

TIPP*
National:
Harris 49
Trump 47