Major snowstorm brewing

[bmw]

The GFS picked up on this storm nearly a full 10 days out and hasn't wavered from it since, which is quite impressive. If you browse backwards through older runs, it has been there going all the way back to Jan 24. My observation of the GFS is that it usually becomes completely useless beyond Day 8 - this may be the furthest out I've ever seen the GFS accurately predict a storm and stick with that prediction throughout.

Granted, the track wasn't perfect and the earliest runs had it bringing more warm air up and being a mostly rain event here, but here is the run from 6 days ago:

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Here's another run - this one from the ICON model:

Well… there’s a 13… so that’s two models reaching the conclusion of a foot. I have to drive the bus from Detroit to Lansing and back via Flint Wednesday afternoon into the evening… I am not looking forward to it. By Wednesday night the roads could be near impassable.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Here's another run - this one from the ICON model:

The most dangerous piece per the video I shared is that Kentucky, southern, Ohio, and parts of PA and West Virginia may get as much as 2 inches of sleet and one inch of ice. I still say Missouri won't get that much snow. Again, NOT saying this storm is a dud, but these models saying 30 inches for Michigan and a foot plus for Missouri are exaggerated.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Here's another run - this one from the ICON model:

Well… there’s a 13… so that’s two models reaching the conclusion of a foot. I have to drive the bus from Detroit to Lansing and back via Flint Wednesday afternoon into the evening… I am not looking forward to it. By Wednesday night the roads could be near impassable.

This snow would be over a 48 hour period through Thursday night. I would expect delays, but nothing impassable.

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Here's another run - this one from the ICON model:

Well… there’s a 13… so that’s two models reaching the conclusion of a foot. I have to drive the bus from Detroit to Lansing and back via Flint Wednesday afternoon into the evening… I am not looking forward to it. By Wednesday night the roads could be near impassable.

This snow would be over a 48 hour period through Thursday night. I would expect delays, but nothing impassable.

The Winter storm watch runs from 7am Wednesday till 11pm Thursday. While that is a slow-ish buildup at some point the plows can’t keep up and with temperatures falling below 20 at some point the salt won’t work nearly as well either. It all sounds like shoveling to me.

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The models are congealing regarding duration and impacts. Biggest question marks regarding heavy versus non-heavy snow are in the Lansing, Flint and Howell areas, where 25 miles could represent the difference between a few inches versus eight or ten inches.

Confidence is now rather high this will be a pretty historic storm for places like Fort Wayne, Toledo and perhaps Detroit.

Weather Channel is forecast 12 to 18 inches for much of Metro Detroit and up along the waterfront into St. Clair county, 8 to 12 inches in a band from roughly Howell to Grand Blanc, and a staggering 18 to 24 inches from Toledo to Fort Wayne.

National Weather Service is calling for a general 8 to 14 inches from I-69 southward through Thursday evening.

WDIV is forecasting 6 to 9 inches Wednesday and 6 to 12 inches Thursday for Metro Detroit.

If we did the 12 to 21 it would be very difficult getting around and digging out just to get around for that matter. If it’s gonna be historic let’s go for the 24” stuff. First inkling of the snow totals on the NWS auto-generated forecast from a 12 hours at a time perspective on their site shows 4 inches during the day Wednesday. It’ll be interesting to see if we are to get 6 Wednesday night and another 4 on Friday or how exactly it totals it out.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

NWS is saying 4-5" up in the Thumb, 9-10" in Flint, 10-12" from 696 to I-69 in Metro Detroit, and 12-15" from Detroit to the Ohio border. That seems most likely.

Do we really want a crippling storm with high winds and zero degrees behind it? That shit is how people die.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I guess I am very happy that we got new roofs put in over here in 2020.

I meant that people die from power outages and such. Being trapped with the power out is one of my worst fears.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Sidenote: This thread definitely reminds me of the old death storm thread back in the day.

[Matt]

Pray the track is farther south (sorry Ohio)!

You NEVER have to apologize to Ohio.

[audiophile]

I guess I am very happy that we got new roofs put in over here in 2020.

I meant that people die from power outages and such. Being trapped with the power out is one of my worst fears.

How would this be different than the last two years for you?

[Matt]

I guess I am very happy that we got new roofs put in over here in 2020.

I meant that people die from power outages and such. Being trapped with the power out is one of my worst fears.

How would this be different than the last two years for you?

In your attempt to dunk on MCRF, you must have missed the part about being actually trapped without power.