2024 General Election Polling Thread

[Honeyman]

Trump has a long history of praising Robinson. At a campaign rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, in March, Trump said he was listening to Robinson speak while he was on his plane and called him “Martin Luther King on steroids.” "I said, ‘I think you’re better than Martin Luther King. I think you are Martin Luther King times two,’” Trump said at the time.

[Matt]

The Robinson story is currently story #19 on Fox News. Pathetic.

Trump probably also compares the other black person he likes, Ben Carson, to MLK.

[Honeyman]

Hoping he stays in the race. This could possibly flip NC and possibly the electoral college.

[Honeyman]

The Robinson story is currently story #19 on Fox News. Pathetic.

Are you insinuating Fox is trying to bury the story?!? I nevere heard such a.....

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/foxs-jesse- ... this-year/

...never mind.

[Matt]

The Robinson story is currently story #19 on Fox News. Pathetic.

Are you insinuating Fox is trying to bury the story?!? I nevere heard such a.....

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/foxs-jesse- ... this-year/

...never mind.

Maybe he's losing it like Trump...

[Matt]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna171467

[Rate This]

The Robinson story is currently story #19 on Fox News. Pathetic.

Are you insinuating Fox is trying to bury the story?!? I nevere heard such a.....

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/foxs-jesse- ... this-year/

...never mind.

Maybe he's losing it like Trump...

I just saw a clip where he talked about being fact checked “9 to 11Times” in the debate and that “the audience went absolutely crazy over it”… even Beemer can’t defend that loss of cognition. He’s imagining entire audiences…

[TC Talks]

even Beemer can’t defend that loss of cognition. He’s imagining entire audiences…

BMW ignores that kind of thing.

[Turkeytop]

I just saw a clip where he talked about being fact checked “9 to 11Times” in the debate and that “the audience went absolutely crazy over it”… even Beemer can’t defend that loss of cognition. He’s imagining entire audiences…

They corrected me nine times, but they never corrected Kamala even once

Thats because nothing Kamala said needed to be corrected.

[Rate This]

September 19

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)
Maine CD-2 (Trump)

Marist
Michigan:
Harris 52
Trump 47

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 52
Rogers 45

Wisconsin:
Harris 50
Trump 49

Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Harris 49

The Hill / Emerson
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 47
Rogers 42

Arizona:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Nevada:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Wisconsin:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 47

North Carolina:
Harris 49
Trump 48

Washington Post
Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Franklin & Marshall
Pennsylvania:
Harris 49
Trump 46

American Greatness / TIPP
Georgia:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Carolina Journal / Cygnal
North Carolina:
Trump 46
Harris 45

Siena
New York:
Harris 55
Trump 42

PPP
Maryland:
Harris 64
Trump 33

PPIC
California:
Harris 60
Trump 29
Kennedy 4
Stein 1
Oliver 1

Pan Atlantic Research
Maine:
Harris 50
Trump 41

Maine CD-1:
Harris 58
Trump 32

Maine CD-2:
Trump 49
Harris 42

New York Times / Siena
Pennsylvania:
Harris 50
Trump 46

National:
Trump 47
Harris 47

Trump 46
Harris 46
Oliver 2
Stein 2
West 0

GWU / HarrisX
National:
Harris 51
Trump 49

Harris 50
Trump 45
West 3
Stein 2

Rasmussen Reports
National:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Prognosticators

538:
Harris 61
Trump 39

PredictIt:
Harris 58
Trump 45

[TC Talks]

Holy Shit is Nate Silver in his head or what?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-let-r ... -a-fool-of

If one candidate has a big lead, there’s a bit less mental strain from all of this. Harris +8 doesn’t feel that different from Harris +4, and an 85 percent probability of her winning doesn’t feel that different than 75 percent. But when the probabilities are in the vicinity of even, it can seem like you’re ping-ponging between radically different universes. A forecast showing Harris as a 55/45 favorite will be interpreted much differently from one showing Trump as a 55/45 favorite instead, even though they’re basically saying the same thing: the election is more or less a coin flip.

If you enjoy what gamblers call the sweat, navigating the vicissitudes of these slightly changing probabilities, I get it, and the model is here for you. But if you don’t, there’s another option beyond voting, donating and volunteering: chilling the eff out. The dunk you make on Twitter isn’t going to make Trump lose. The nasty comment you leave isn’t going to make Trump win. You can unskew the polls, but usually, you’re only fooling yourself. So lead your best life, and have the serenity to accept the things you cannot change.

[Rate This]

Holy Shit is Nate Silver in his head or what?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-let-r ... -a-fool-of

If one candidate has a big lead, there’s a bit less mental strain from all of this. Harris +8 doesn’t feel that different from Harris +4, and an 85 percent probability of her winning doesn’t feel that different than 75 percent. But when the probabilities are in the vicinity of even, it can seem like you’re ping-ponging between radically different universes. A forecast showing Harris as a 55/45 favorite will be interpreted much differently from one showing Trump as a 55/45 favorite instead, even though they’re basically saying the same thing: the election is more or less a coin flip.

If you enjoy what gamblers call the sweat, navigating the vicissitudes of these slightly changing probabilities, I get it, and the model is here for you. But if you don’t, there’s another option beyond voting, donating and volunteering: chilling the eff out. The dunk you make on Twitter isn’t going to make Trump lose. The nasty comment you leave isn’t going to make Trump win. You can unskew the polls, but usually, you’re only fooling yourself. So lead your best life, and have the serenity to accept the things you cannot change.

Well that’s a head scratching series of statements.. Who asked him anyways?

[TC Talks]

Holy Shit is Nate Silver in his head or what?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-let-r ... -a-fool-of

If one candidate has a big lead, there’s a bit less mental strain from all of this. Harris +8 doesn’t feel that different from Harris +4, and an 85 percent probability of her winning doesn’t feel that different than 75 percent. But when the probabilities are in the vicinity of even, it can seem like you’re ping-ponging between radically different universes. A forecast showing Harris as a 55/45 favorite will be interpreted much differently from one showing Trump as a 55/45 favorite instead, even though they’re basically saying the same thing: the election is more or less a coin flip.

If you enjoy what gamblers call the sweat, navigating the vicissitudes of these slightly changing probabilities, I get it, and the model is here for you. But if you don’t, there’s another option beyond voting, donating and volunteering: chilling the eff out. The dunk you make on Twitter isn’t going to make Trump lose. The nasty comment you leave isn’t going to make Trump win. You can unskew the polls, but usually, you’re only fooling yourself. So lead your best life, and have the serenity to accept the things you cannot change.

Well that’s a head scratching series of statements.. Who asked him anyways?

He blogs, that's his thing. This entry shows that there is no predictable model for this year.

[TC Talks]

I can't wait to see how the polls look in a few weeks. Trump is pushing hard for OTA television.

Harris, With an Online Avalanche, Outspends Trump by Tens of Millions. The week of their debate, Kamala Harris outspent Donald Trump by 20 to 1 on Facebook and Instagram. It was just one sign of how uneven their online advertising battle has become.

[Honeyman]

Ted Cruz going down?

https://www.sacurrent.com/news/for-firs ... r-35623032