2024 General Election Polling Thread

[TC Talks]

Swift Bump...

More than 337,000 people clicked on the voter registration link that Taylor Swift shared on Instagram alongside her post endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris this week.

Swift endorsed Harris in a lengthy Instagram post shortly after the presidential debate Tuesday night. She also encouraged her 298 million followers to register to vote, including a specific URL that brought users to vote.org.

The General Services Administration, which runs the website, said over 337,000 people had used Swift's link as of Wednesday afternoon, according to NBC News. The GSA did not immediately respond to a Fox News Digital inquiry about where the total stands as of Thursday.

"I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice," Swift wrote in her post. "Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make. I also want to say, especially to first time voters: Remember that in order to vote, you have to be registered! I also find it’s much easier to vote early. I’ll link where to register and find early voting dates and info in my story."

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Swift Bump...

More than 337,000 people clicked on the voter registration link that Taylor Swift shared on Instagram alongside her post endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris this week.

Swift endorsed Harris in a lengthy Instagram post shortly after the presidential debate Tuesday night. She also encouraged her 298 million followers to register to vote, including a specific URL that brought users to vote.org.

The General Services Administration, which runs the website, said over 337,000 people had used Swift's link as of Wednesday afternoon, according to NBC News. The GSA did not immediately respond to a Fox News Digital inquiry about where the total stands as of Thursday.

"I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice," Swift wrote in her post. "Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make. I also want to say, especially to first time voters: Remember that in order to vote, you have to be registered! I also find it’s much easier to vote early. I’ll link where to register and find early voting dates and info in my story."

I'm not saying there are 337,000 Harris voters there per se... but even if that was 80-20 Harris.... those are state tipping numbers in the right combination...

September 13 Part 2

Beemer Swing State:
North Carolina (Trump)

American Greatness / TIPP
North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 46

Trump 48
Harris 45
West 2
Stein 1

Data For Progress
National:
Harris 50
Trump 46

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48
Republicans 45

[zzand]

I have read several articles about the Swift bump. One actually used the Swift bump name. Every one of them pointed out that she asked her fans not to vote for Harris but to research and vote for the candidate that appeals to them. Righty talk show hosts have been going ballistic over her endorsement and Meagan Kelly had a five minute meltdown on camera over it. You can watch on YouTube. Guess they are all worried about the Swift bump and what it might mean for the general election. As far as I'm concerned if she moves her fans to get involved and join the ranks of active voters then it is a good thing, no matter who they vote for.

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I have read several articles about the Swift bump. One actually used the Swift bump name. Every one of them pointed out that she asked her fans not to vote for Harris but to research and vote for the candidate that appeals to them. Righty talk show hosts have been going ballistic over her endorsement and Meagan Kelly had a five minute meltdown on camera over it. You can watch on YouTube. Guess they are all worried about the Swift bump and what it might mean for the general election. As far as I'm concerned if she moves her fans to get involved and join the ranks of active voters then it is a good thing, no matter who they vote for.

Interesting. It almost sounds like it could be one of those "keep talking about it and it'll happen" things considering she didn't literally direct anybody. Kind of seems like a fig leaf to me.

September 14

Beemer States Today:
North Carolina (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)

Insider Advantage
Wisconsin:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Trafalgar Group
North Carolina:
Trump 48
Harris 46

Alaska Survey Research
Alaska:
Trump 47
Harris 42

Yahoo News
National:
Harris 49
Trump 45

[TC Talks]

By looking at these numbers, I'm not seeing a Harris debate increase.

While I am confident that pollsters have figured out how to Track Trump voters, do they have the ability to track non-traditional young voters?

The feedback I am getting from my kid in DC is that her donation contingent alone from Michigan suggests she is up much more than the polls suggest.

She has raised 600+ million dollars from largely non-donors. These people will vote and bring their friends. I just wonder if they are on the radar.

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By looking at these numbers, I'm not seeing a Harris debate increase.

While I am confident that pollsters have figured out how to Track Trump voters, do they have the ability to track non-traditional young voters?

The feedback I am getting from my kid in DC is that her donation contingent alone from Michigan suggests she is up much more than the polls suggest.

She has raised 600+ million dollars from largely non-donors. These people will vote and bring their friends. I just wonder if they are on the radar.

I believe they aren’t just like all those extra voters the last few years after Dobbs was decided.

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September 15

Beemer Swing State Today:
Arizona (Trump)

Trafalgar Group
Arizona:
Trump 47
Harris 46

Des Moines Register
Iowa:
Trump 47
Harris 43
Kennedy 6
Chase 0

Albuquerque Journal
New Mexico:
Harris 49
Trump 39
Kennedy 3

Elway Research
Harris 53
Trump 32

ABC News / Ipsos
National:
Harris 51
Trump 47

Harris 50
Trump 46
Oliver 1
West 1
Stein 1

Atlas Intel
National:
Trump 51
Harris 48

Trump 51
Harris 47
Oliver 0
West 0
Stein 0

TIPP
National:
Harris 47
Trump 43

Harris 49
Trump 45
Oliver 1
West 1
Stein 1

Yahoo News
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48
Republicans 44

It looks like we are starting to see the wonky polls come out again...

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September 16

Beemer Swing States Today:
Nevada (Trump)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)

Trafalgar Group
Nevada:
Harris 45
Trump 44

Georgia:
Trump 46
Harris 45

Insider Advantage
Pennsylvania:
Trump 50
Harris 48

USA Today / Suffolk
Pennsylvania:
Harris 49
Trump 46

[Honeyman]

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/17/harris ... ate-record

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September 17

The Hill / Emerson
Missouri:
Trump 53
Harris 43

Indiana:
Trump 57
Harris 40

Maryland:
Harris 63
Trump 32

Morning Consult
National:
Harris 51
Trump 45

Forbes / HarrisX
National:
Harris 52
Trump 48

Harris 50
Trump 47
West 2
Stein 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 43
Republicans 41

Monmouth
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48
Republicans 47

[bmw]

Interesting polling coming in from Gallup. They show Trump with a higher favorable rating than Harris (46 vs 44) with a starker difference among independents (44 vs 35). Maybe there is hope that the Kamala Koolaid drinkers in this forum aren't representative of actual Independents nationally. The self-described "Republicans" in here who view Trump unfavorably certainly aren't representative. That number is at 9 percent nationally.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/650774/fav ... emain.aspx

[audiophile]

BWM, did you see the Trump rally in Flint last night?

Packed to gills, outside was packed too. I know someone that went 3 hours early and didn't get in.

[bmw]

I did not. But I continue to be fascinated by the polling data in Michigan - I'm starting to think that of WI, MI, and PA that Michigan is most likely of the 3 to go to Trump. If he takes GA, NC, AZ, and MI, it is over.

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I did not. But I continue to be fascinated by the polling data in Michigan - I'm starting to think that of WI, MI, and PA that Michigan is most likely of the 3 to go to Trump. If he takes GA, NC, AZ, and MI, it is over.

Thing is… all of the underlying data we have surrounding registration and enthusiasm points to a vastly different electorate than in 2020 and the poll samples are ultimately based on what demos turned out in 2020. So I wouldn’t exactly pop open the champagne right yet.

That rally in Flint was the same one people were seen leaving mid speech.

Also a poll finding Trump to be only 7 points underwater in favorability and more favorable than Harris is immediately suspect. He’s usually double digits underwater… sometimes as many as 25 points. And she’s usually barely above water by 2 or 3 or 4. I think Gallup got an overly Trump friendly sample.

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BWM, did you see the Trump rally in Flint last night?

Packed to gills, outside was packed too. I know someone that went 3 hours early and didn't get in.

Apparently during the speech it was a few dozen per Politico:

Trump, too, defended his crowd size — a new attack line from Democrats — saying “Nobody’s ever seen a town hall like this. You know town halls are supposed to have about 300 people. You have about 8,000 people here. And equally as important you have about 8,000 people that are not here they’re walking away.”

Outside a few minutes later, though, only dozens of people milled about the entrance, sitting in foldable lawn chairs and pulling up the rally on their phones. As Trump was speaking, a few blocks from the arena, a pro-Trump retailer hawked flags that read “FUCK BIDEN AND FUCK YOU FOR VOTING FOR HIM” and showed Trump, sleeveless, wielding an assault rifle like Rambo, wrinkling and waving in the evening breeze.