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Debate and discussion of current events and political issues across the U.S. and throughout the World. Be forewarned -- this forum is NOT for the intellectually weak or those of you with thin skins. Don't come crying to me if you become the subject of ridicule. **Board Administrator reserves the right to revoke posting privileges based on my sole discretion**
bmw wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2024 10:51 am
Matt - sounds to me like your tune has changed a bit. Just a few months ago you said that Trump had literally no chance of winning. I'm curious what has changed your opinion?
RT - Here's the problem with your argument - the polling in 2020 ended up being correct. The polling average never put Trump closer than to within 4 points of Biden. This time around the polling looks very different. You have to explain why the polling was correct in 2020 but why it is wrong this time around.
I think the ongoing Gaza conflict has the potential to hurt him on both sides of the conflict, it's impossible to ignore the polls, and there is still a chance that Trump picks a normal running mate instead of a MAGA moron that might bring in some of the Haley voters.
I've long operated on the hypothesis that Trump won't get any new voters, but will all the Biden voters come out for him in numbers like 2020? That is doubtful. The ability for abortion to bring people to the polls has been strong the last few years, but does that continue?
bmw wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2024 10:51 am
Matt - sounds to me like your tune has changed a bit. Just a few months ago you said that Trump had literally no chance of winning. I'm curious what has changed your opinion?
RT - Here's the problem with your argument - the polling in 2020 ended up being correct. The polling average never put Trump closer than to within 4 points of Biden. This time around the polling looks very different. You have to explain why the polling was correct in 2020 but why it is wrong this time around.
I think the ongoing Gaza conflict has the potential to hurt him on both sides of the conflict, it's impossible to ignore the polls, and there is still a chance that Trump picks a normal running mate instead of a MAGA moron that might bring in some of the Haley voters.
I've long operated on the hypothesis that Trump won't get any new voters, but will all the Biden voters come out for him in numbers like 2020? That is doubtful. The ability for abortion to bring people to the polls has been strong the last few years, but does that continue?
Why would the ability of abortion to being out people suddenly stop after paying dividends for the last couple of years. Red states are still screwing around with it. We have also had several elections this year where the Democrat has overperformed the district when running on it. They’ll be riding that until the cows come home. That may even be something polling is not capturing and a real shift may have occurred due to the ruling by the Supreme Court. If they are using pre-ruling demographics mixes to do the polling and a seismic shift occurred that would explain the protest vote against Trump even in closed primaries, the fact that he gets fewer Republicans than Biden does Democrats and the continued over performance of Democrats in election after election.
Trump said yesterday that ALL Haley voters will automatically vote for him. I, for one, won't and I know others who won't either. I think we end up with a tie leading to a recount and then who knows but a tie is my guess and that's all anyone can say right now. It is a guess.
zzand wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2024 3:27 pm
Trump said yesterday that ALL Haley voters will automatically vote for him. I, for one, won't and I know others who won't either. I think we end up with a tie leading to a recount and then who knows but a tie is my guess and that's all anyone can say right now. It is a guess.
Is he planning on giving Haley the VP slot and agreeing to her demands? That would be a game changer for a lot of people.
zzand wrote: ↑Fri May 17, 2024 3:27 pm
Trump said yesterday that ALL Haley voters will automatically vote for him. I, for one, won't and I know others who won't either. I think we end up with a tie leading to a recount and then who knows but a tie is my guess and that's all anyone can say right now. It is a guess.
Is he planning on giving Haley the VP slot and agreeing to her demands? That would be a game changer for a lot of people.
There is a strong possibility the defense will ask for a directed verdict once the prosecutor rests. If they don't get it my question is will Trump take the stand. He has said he will and wants to but I think it would be a mistake because he would not do well under cross.
zzand wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 10:47 am
There is a strong possibility the defense will ask for a directed verdict once the prosecutor rests. If they don't get it my question is will Trump take the stand. He has said he will and wants to but I think it would be a mistake because he would not do well under cross.
His lawyers would hide under the defense table if he took the stand.
I posted last week about how the defense will probably seek a directed verdict. There is no way on earth that this judge grants that motion as the political fallout from such a decision would effectively end this judge's career. As I think about that possibility, I can't even begin to imagine the outrage that would come from certain segments of the left.
From a purely legal standpoint, I think it is a close call whether a directed verdict would be appropriate, but even I would lean towards denying it if for no reason other than a grand jury found there to be probable cause. Directed verdicts are quite rare even in non-politically charged cases and to grant one here would be a stinging rebuke of the New York prosecutor's office, which just ain't gonna happen.
I still stand by my belief that the case should never have been brought in the first place, but at this point, I think sending it to a jury is the best solution.
bmw wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 11:31 am
I posted last week about how the defense will probably seek a directed verdict. There is no way on earth that this judge grants that motion as the political fallout from such a decision would effectively end this judge's career. As I think about that possibility, I can't even begin to imagine the outrage that would come from certain segments of the left.
From a purely legal standpoint, I think it is a close call whether a directed verdict would be appropriate, but even I would lean towards denying it if for no reason other than a grand jury found there to be probable cause. Directed verdicts are quite rare even in non-politically charged cases and to grant one here would be a stinging rebuke of the New York prosecutor's office, which just ain't gonna happen.
I still stand by my belief that the case should never have been brought in the first place, but at this point, I think sending it to a jury is the best solution.
A directed verdict shows some leniency to the defendant. It’s almost like doing him a favor and dispensing with the rest of the trial. Why on earth would it be reasonable to give Trump a directed verdict when he’s gone after the judge left and right and violated the gag order almost ten times? Nobody is doing him a favor after all that. Trump has replaced “guy who’s really the victim here” with “contemptuous prick” in the judges mind through actions NOBODY MADE HIM DO.
One thing I pretty much know for sure...
whatever the outcome the losing side is going to bitch that the system is broken and corrupt while the winning side is going to hail a system that works as it should.
bmw wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 11:31 am
I posted last week about how the defense will probably seek a directed verdict. There is no way on earth that this judge grants that motion as the political fallout from such a decision would effectively end this judge's career. As I think about that possibility, I can't even begin to imagine the outrage that would come from certain segments of the left.
You give a lot of people too much credit for paying attention to details like this. Most voters simply vote for the D or R on the ballot.
283,000,000 Americans didn't vote for Trump.
"When the going gets weird, the weird go Pro."
-Hunter S. Thompson
zzand wrote: ↑Tue May 21, 2024 10:51 am
The Trump team made a very smart move, resting without putting Trump on the stand although it would have been high comedy.
So smart that they put that Costello fellow on the stand. Yeah, we missed the main event of Trump tanking himself but witnessing Robert Costello perform harakiri made for a nice undercard.
