Week of 9/13 - a taste of fall for many of us

[MWmetalhead]

Warm front has inched northward just a touch.

DTW has climbed 4 degrees in the past hour and is now at 79 degrees.

It is 75 in Troy, 71 in Flint and 73 in Howell.

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At 8pm Toledo was reporting 86.

[Matt]

At 8pm Toledo was reporting 86.

Yeah, but you had to be in ohio to experience that great temp. Not worth it.

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At 8pm Toledo was reporting 86.

Yeah, but you had to be in ohio to experience that great temp. Not worth it.

Fair point. Maybe it was 85 in Temperence?

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I would prefer sunny weather, but I will take 70 and cloudy over 90 and sunny any day.

[MWmetalhead]

Actual high temps yesterday through this weekend for Detroit will likely underperform versus my Sunday forecast, with this coming Friday being an exception.

I don't think we'll get above 70 or 71 today. Some outlets are still calling for highs near 75 for today, including the NWDS. I disagree.

We are in a Fall weather pattern for the time being. Areas along and south of I-70 are still enjoying summer weather for now.

Next week continues to look unseasonably cool. I think most days will see highs in the 60s, with highs in the 50s possible up north some days.

[MWmetalhead]

NWDS so far seems to be off by a good 10 degrees, maybe more, on the afternoon high temp for Grand Rapids.

Those clowns are a waste of tax dollars.

[thatonedude]

NWDS so far seems to be off by a good 10 degrees, maybe more, on the afternoon high temp for Grand Rapids.

Those clowns are a waste of tax dollars.

The lack of frequent balloon launches is definitely fucking up the accuracy, I feel. Only certain offices can still do them twice daily, others are once a day. I think that's a H*** part of it, but then again, I can't speak on GRR's accuracy. DTX has been SUCKING lately, and my office in southern Oregon has been a bit off on temps for the last few weeks.

However, with that said, the balloons are one piece of the puzzle. Incompetence may be another, and budget cuts definitely are. Combine those three... it ain't pretty.

[Rate This]

NWDS so far seems to be off by a good 10 degrees, maybe more, on the afternoon high temp for Grand Rapids.

Those clowns are a waste of tax dollars.

The lack of frequent balloon launches is definitely fucking up the accuracy, I feel. Only certain offices can still do them twice daily, others are once a day. I think that's a H*** part of it, but then again, I can't speak on GRR's accuracy. DTX has been SUCKING lately, and my office in southern Oregon has been a bit off on temps for the last few weeks.

However, with that said, the balloons are one piece of the puzzle. Incompetence may be another, and budget cuts definitely are. Combine those three... it ain't pretty.

I strongly suspect there is some AI involvement in some of the models too. Maybe some brain drain from the buyouts DOGE tried. Either of those could cause issues.

[thatonedude]

NWDS so far seems to be off by a good 10 degrees, maybe more, on the afternoon high temp for Grand Rapids.

Those clowns are a waste of tax dollars.

The lack of frequent balloon launches is definitely fucking up the accuracy, I feel. Only certain offices can still do them twice daily, others are once a day. I think that's a H*** part of it, but then again, I can't speak on GRR's accuracy. DTX has been SUCKING lately, and my office in southern Oregon has been a bit off on temps for the last few weeks.

However, with that said, the balloons are one piece of the puzzle. Incompetence may be another, and budget cuts definitely are. Combine those three... it ain't pretty.

I strongly suspect there is some AI involvement in some of the models too. Maybe some brain drain from the buyouts DOGE tried. Either of those could cause issues.

Those are also contributing factors, as well.

There are AI clones of the GFS and Euro models, and perhaps some mesoscale ones too. They have their moments, but I haven't really bothered to seriously look at their output.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Rate This]

NWDS so far seems to be off by a good 10 degrees, maybe more, on the afternoon high temp for Grand Rapids.

Those clowns are a waste of tax dollars.

The lack of frequent balloon launches is definitely fucking up the accuracy, I feel. Only certain offices can still do them twice daily, others are once a day. I think that's a H*** part of it, but then again, I can't speak on GRR's accuracy. DTX has been SUCKING lately, and my office in southern Oregon has been a bit off on temps for the last few weeks.

However, with that said, the balloons are one piece of the puzzle. Incompetence may be another, and budget cuts definitely are. Combine those three... it ain't pretty.

I strongly suspect there is some AI involvement in some of the models too. Maybe some brain drain from the buyouts DOGE tried. Either of those could cause issues.

Those are also contributing factors, as well.

There are AI clones of the GFS and Euro models, and perhaps some mesoscale ones too. They have their moments, but I haven't really bothered to seriously look at their output.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Is it my imagination or have the predictions been progressively worsening in the past maybe 2-3 years?

[MWmetalhead]

I agree. Short term forecast accuracy (I.e. 72 hours) has worsened. I've noticed no difference with medium range or long term forecasting.