2026 Michigan Governor And Senate Polling Thread

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Abdul had continually said that Stevens would be a tight race as I did. How do you think I predicted a tight race.

He has said he will beat Rogers handily. When gas prices hit $6 and the banks get pushed to the brink, it will be all over for Rogers. JP Morgan just said that prices will skyrocket when farms run out of fertilizer, which should be the end of September. Our oil reserves haven’t been this low since the 80s.

Both of those things are true. Thing is… we won’t really know until October or so which way oil is going. I’m doubting $6 gas though.

Obviously, Abdul is saying the race is close now due to trying to urge people to give money. All part of the game. But he said only the primary would be close in early July. As a candidate, it would be foolish to say your race is over one way or the other as a candidate.

And yet people dialing back their efforts early isn’t uncommon even when it’s not a good plan.

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TIPP:
Senate
El-Sayed 45
Rogers 42

Governor
Benson 53
James 37

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Susquehanna:
Senate
El-Sayed 46
Rogers 39

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Fabrizio / Anzalone:
Senate
El-Sayed 48
Rogers 47

Governor
Benson 49
James 44

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EPIC-MRA:
Senate
El-Sayed 47
Rogers 43

Benson 45
James 41

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MSU / YouGov:
Senate
El-Sayed 50
Rogers 45

Governor
Benson 52
James 43

[TC Talks]

Could you start posting Poly Market on these races?

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Could you start posting Poly Market on these races?

Sure…

Which party wins for Governor…
Democrats 92% chance
Republicans 8% chance

Who wins the Senate race…
El-Sayed 65% Chance
Rogers 35% Chance

Those are the two questions I could find on Polymarket when searching Michigan. I don’t really like how their site is organized.

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Abacus Data:
Senate
El-Sayed 49
Rogers 45

Polymarket:
Governor
Democrat wins 91%
Republican wins 9%

Senate
El-Sayed 65%
Rogers 35%

PredictIt:
Governor Winning Party
Democrat 86
Republican 13

Senate Winning Party
Democrat 59
Republican 42

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WDIV-TV/Detroit News:
Senate
Rogers 46
El-Sayed 44

Governor
Benson 47
James 43

[Matt]

Not looking good for El-Sayed, unfortunately.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

AIPAC was going to attack whomever the Democratic candidate was. Attack ads work. The economic downturn will save the day.

[Realist]

Not looking good for El-Sayed, unfortunately.

Agreed.

One of the biggest reasons I didn’t support him in the primaries is it is going to be hard to convince folks in northern Michigan to vote for him. While I personally don’t care about him being Muslim, I really believe it’s going to be an issue. The GOP and its supporting PAC’s are already running a smear campaign against him - and it’s going to get worse between now and Election Day.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Not looking good for El-Sayed, unfortunately.

Agreed.

One of the biggest reasons I didn’t support him in the primaries is it is going to be hard to convince folks in northern Michigan to vote for him. While I personally don’t care about him being Muslim, I really believe it’s going to be an issue. The GOP and its supporting PAC’s are already running a smear campaign against him - and it’s going to get worse between now and Election Day.

Abdul El Sayed overperformed up north in the primary. What I see here is a lot of worry over nothing. Epic MRA is a solid pollster. He has a 70% chance of winning. If every poll had him down 3-5% then I’d be worried.

Just wait until the economic collapse. Republicans are going to have to battle in places like South Carolina.