2024 General Election Polling Thread

[bmw]

PredictIt bettors now favor Trump 52-51. RT didn't you a few months ago say something like people who bet on these kind of things generally don't just throw their money away?

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PredictIt bettors now favor Trump 52-51. RT didn't you a few months ago say something like people who bet on these kind of things generally don't just throw their money away?

Generally not… but they only have the data that’s available… if that data is wrong or is weighted and over correcting for the Trump effect when there is some other dynamics at play like a shy Harris effect and all of the other below the surface data we have… smaller crowds for him, folks walking out mid speech… Republican officials supporting Harris in droves… massive Harris rallies, registration surges… all of the election data from Dobbs right up through this year where Democrats overperformed the polls on a consistent basis and his terrible underperformance losing 15-20% of Republicans even when the race was over… none of that information looks good for Trump. So would they be intentionally losing money? Well… no. Could they lose money anyways and does that seem possible? Hell yes.

It looks like Harris is sitting on a lead the way she is doing media interviews instead of rallies although the next one I believe is tomorrow in Arizona. It’s entirely possible that the polling isn’t capturing the race correctly by using 2020 data as a basis point when you had the unpopular Trump running against the not exactly enthusiasm generating Biden. Harris has raised a Billion dollars since she entered the race and her total number of small donors exceeded Biden’s in 8 days. You underestimate these factors at your own risk. It is entirely plausible that Harris’s team has taken a different approach on internal polling that shows them such a lead.

[bmw]

I think it is the exact opposite - I think Harris is suddenly doing a media blitz because her campaign's internal polling tells them there's trouble.

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I think it is the exact opposite - I think Harris is suddenly doing a media blitz because her campaign's internal polling tells them there's trouble.

You gonna ignore the War and Peace length amount of evidence showing the orange man has less support than it appears?

[Matt]

I think it is the exact opposite - I think Harris is suddenly doing a media blitz because her campaign's internal polling tells them there's trouble.

Or you know, she's just trying to close by showing she's a normal person as opposed to the cult leader she's running against.

[TC Talks]

I think it is the exact opposite - I think Harris is suddenly doing a media blitz because her campaign's internal polling tells them there's trouble.

I would agree that Trump messaging is connecting better with rural white men than Harris. However, she has a billion dollars to spend and what you call a blitz is probably just her budget for the last push.

[bmw]

I'm the one ignoring evidence?

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I'm the one ignoring evidence?

Any evidence that isn’t those polls which may have a Republican over sample or some sort of over correction for Trump being in the race / under correction for the change in candidates. You are ignoring any and all other evidence that all points in the opposite direction.

[Matt]

I'm the one ignoring evidence?

Any evidence that isn’t those polls which may have a Republican over sample or some sort of over correction for Trump being in the race / under correction for the change in candidates. You are ignoring any and all other evidence that all points in the opposite direction.

Donald Trump could rape and murder his family members and he'd still vote for them. He's a true believer and a lost cause.

[Rate This]

I'm the one ignoring evidence?

Any evidence that isn’t those polls which may have a Republican over sample or some sort of over correction for Trump being in the race / under correction for the change in candidates. You are ignoring any and all other evidence that all points in the opposite direction.

Donald Trump could rape and murder his family members and he'd still vote for them. He's a true believer and a lost cause.

What a sad state of affairs...

October 10

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

The Hill / Emerson
Michigan:
Trump 49
Harris 49

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 49
Rogers 44

Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Wisconsin:
Trump 49
Harris 49

North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Georgia:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Nevada:
Harris 48
Trump 47

Insider Advantage
Michigan:
Trump 48
Harris 46

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 46
Rogers 45

Wisconsin:
Trump 48
Harris 48

American Greatness / TIPP
Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Harris 48[/u]

Washington Post
Ohio:
Trump 51
Harris 45

Marist
Ohio:
Trump 52
Harris 46

Florida:
Trump 51
Harris 47

Texas:
Trump 53
Harris 46

New York Times / Siena
Trump 57
Harris 40

Pew Research
National:
Harris 48
Trump 47

Rasmussen Reports
National:
Trump 48
Harris 46

Economist / YouGov
National:
Harris 49
Trump 45
Stein 1
West 0

Data For Progress
National:
Harris 49
Trump 46

Morning Consult
National:
Harris 51
Trump 45

Interestingly the Morning Consult poll has a margin of error of only 1 and surveyed 11,353 Likely Voters.

[paul8539]

The only poll that counts is the one on election day.

[bmw]

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

Per the RCP polling average as it stands today, I'm a perfect 7/7 on that list.

[Matt]

Beemer Swing States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

Per the RCP polling average as it stands today, I'm a perfect 7/7 on that list.

How many votes have been counted?

[bmw]

How many votes have been counted?

The same number that were counted to nominate Kamala Harris.

[Matt]

How many votes have been counted?

The same number that were counted to nominate Kamala Harris.

Did you forget that Donald Trump is a felon and a traitor that appears to have dementia.