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Rate This wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:48 am
Maybe… but if you want to win you should have kicked Trump to the curb and we are seeing mountains of evidence for that now. You don’t seem to want to acknowledge that but Trump is in serious trouble.
In 2020, Trump did get 74.2 million votes - Even adjusted for population growth, this is the highest percent of the total population a Republican has ever gotten, at least in modern times. Just so happened that Biden also pulled that off, at an even higher margin.
Trump's base isn't going anywhere. He's likely to again get 74 million votes. The million dollar question is, can Kamala get the 79 million or so necessary to win the Electoral College? There's no pandemic this time around, and Trump isn't in office. So I'm not convinced that the enthusiasm on the left is quite as high as it was in 2020.
Rate This wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:48 am
Maybe… but if you want to win you should have kicked Trump to the curb and we are seeing mountains of evidence for that now. You don’t seem to want to acknowledge that but Trump is in serious trouble.
In 2020, Trump did get 74.2 million votes - Even adjusted for population growth, this is the highest percent of the total population a Republican has ever gotten, at least in modern times. Just so happened that Biden also pulled that off, at an even higher margin.
Trump's base isn't going anywhere. He's likely to again get 74 million votes. The million dollar question is, can Kamala get the 79 million or so necessary to win the Electoral College? There's no pandemic this time around, and Trump isn't in office. So I'm not convinced that the enthusiasm on the left is quite as high as it was in 2020.
The enthusiasm is far higher than it was in 2020… it’s at Obama ‘08 levels on the Democratic side and a whole lot of Trump voters won’t vote for him again after January 6th. At the end of August Gallup put Democratic enthusiasm at 79% up from 55% in March and Republican enthusiasm at just 64%. That 79% is one point off the 2008 high for Democrats. And that’s not a fluke.. Republican enthusiasm now lags Democratic enthusiasm significantly. What you might call the pro-democracy coalition of people of all stripes is not only energized but they will vote and bring their friends.
He can’t even afford a 5 or 10% defection from his base. He underperformed the polls in the primaries by as much as 20% and the Democrats have been over performing the polls since Dobbs. Voter registration has been robust which likely favors the Democrats when you analyze the underlying data for what triggered those registrations. He’s fixing to get whooped and you act like they swapped Biden for Harris and the dynamics of the race haven’t changed. You are also making the grave error of assuming the polls will be wrong a third time and corrections haven’t been made.
TC Talks wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 10:25 am
Trump needs to return to attacking Biden and complaining that the Democrats threw Biden out. His polling was much better back then.
I really think the debate did more damage to Trumps chances than we fully understand at present.
The thing I keep hearing about was the eating your pets. That seems to have really upset people. I also read two different articles this morning that are talking about the Taylor Swift effect. Now a lot of her fam base is not voting age but the articles implied she may be one reason Harris wins in November if she does.
Short and sweet. The 337 thousand that signed up off the links on her social media will see the majority vote as she does and that could make a difference in final vote counts.
audiophile wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 11:09 am
What are you hearing about the pets?
I’m interested to know that too but I would guess that Trump finally found something too ridiculous for the majority of people. Nobody finds it plausible that someone is grabbing and eating pets. If it were true there would be some noted and studied part of the world where they did that with no problem.
He also said “but I saw it on TV…” which makes him sound like he believes any crazy thing that comes along and makes him look like he’s not at all in command of the information he receives and cannot discern between fact and fiction adequately. That may have blown the entire election.
I will point out that Trump is 0-2 in popular vote.
Clinton beat him by almost 3 million
Biden beat him by almost 6 million.
So he is going in the wrong direction with popular vote.
So it's not like "America loves Trump" to paraphrase TT our resident Canadian commie.
Rate This wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:30 am
My god man… it’s a hypothetical…
My issue with some of the posters here who claim to be Republicans act like they speak for the entire Republican party when in fact all polling suggests that they don't - not by a longshot. Don't you think it is a bit ballsy to be in a 9 percent minority and act (quite obnoxiously, in Matt's case) like you somehow speak for a large majority of people?
With all the Republicans coming out in support of Harris it would seem that the Republicans who will not simply vote for the Republican candidate because he is the Republican candidate is becoming a large group. Numbers mean nothing because the majority of them have not been contracted by polling folks, made public comments or let their feelings be know in any way. The is an old saying in broadcasting, for every one listener who calls in to complain there are ten others who simply changed the station. I think the same applies here. As we learned with Clinton, those who live by polls, die by polls. As for being so called Republicans, we are simply party members who are capable of independent thinking. Others are simply anyone but Trump.
zzand wrote: ↑Sat Sep 21, 2024 3:51 pm
With all the Republicans coming out in support of Harris it would seem that the Republicans who will not simply vote for the Republican candidate because he is the Republican candidate is becoming a large group. Numbers mean nothing because the majority of them have not been contracted by polling folks, made public comments or let their feelings be know in any way. The is an old saying in broadcasting, for every one listener who calls in to complain there are ten others who simply changed the station. I think the same applies here. As we learned with Clinton, those who live by polls, die by polls. As for being so called Republicans, we are simply party members who are capable of independent thinking. Others are simply anyone but Trump.
I really think there is a strong argument to be made that whatever this thing is it isn’t the real Republican Party. It’s too radically different. It’s like when some place goes out of business and they bring back the name for brand identity reasons… as much as they throw RINO around at you folks I think it describes Trump and his movement to a tee.
