Weather reporting

[Mega Hertz]

This is one of least-accurate months for weather forecasting I've ever seen up my way. Multiple times when the forecast has been "Mostly Sunny" with the percent chance of rain in the low-single-digits, we've gotten dumped on. Other times they really play up the rain, 100% chance of up to an inch, and we don't get a drop.

Yeah, what's up with that? It seems it's just been a funky ass weather year all the way around.

[Rate This]

I'm not impressed by Ron Hilliard at WDIV or Marissa at WXYZ. Both are still calling for max air temps in the low 90s today pretty much everywhere.

Not...gonna...happen! Lots of debris clouds and smoke around. The smoke is pretty high in the sky today, so air quality shouldn't be too bad.

TWC just lowered it's predicted high temp for my neighborhood from 91 to 85. That's probably about right. I'm thinking top temp will be 86 or 87 here. Temp actually fell by a degree here within the last 30 minutes.

Metro reached 88. I had 93 in pure sunshine in Mt. Pleasant around 6pm. It got HOT from Lansing to about Clare.

[MWmetalhead]

Yup. Areas along and north of 69, or along and north of 96 if we are talking west of Lansing, were not impacted by long lived debris clouds during the midday hours today.

I am unsure what the smoke conditions were like up that way.

Metro did not reach 88 until the 6PM hour, I believe.

It very briefly reached 88 in my locale around 4PM.

I don't know if there was a single official reporting station that reached 90 at all this week in Metro Detroit despite the mainstream media bemoaning heat wave conditions.

I didn't see any heat indices warmer than 95 today locally. Flint did have a 96 heat index at one point. So, the predictions of widespread heat indices near 100 for this afternoon were B.S.

Correctly, the local NWS did not issue any heat advisory.

Severe T'Storm Watch now in effect along and west of 127. I think this is mainly a heavy rain and lightning threat for that region. Any wind damage should be isolated. I do expect the complex to weaken a bit, perhaps substantially, by the time it gets this far east. I will say I am surprised there is no T'Storm Warning in effect for the area just south of South Haven. Definite downburst threat there per radar data.

Update - the cell I just mentioned now has a warning on it.

Update #2 - if a tornado were to occur tonight, I think the highest potential is very near the state line and also in the Flint and Lapeer regions. EF-0 or low end EF-1.

[MWmetalhead]

Rainfall totals are going to be a complete nothing burger for Metro Detroit and Ann Arbor.

Kudos to Fox 2 for getting it right!

Gigantic thumbs down to WXYZ for its embarrassing inaccuracy when it came to not only yesterday's high temps but also last night and this morning's rainfall totals.

[edj]

I was up in Goodrich yesterday evening and ran into a major downpour. Five miles south, absolutely nothing. Very odd.

[MWmetalhead]

Most areas in SE Michigan saw less than a half inch of rain overnight last night, yet Dave Rexroth was talking as if a biblical flood was going to hit our region.

Much heavier totals in western lower Michigan, just like I said would be the case. Some pockets in central Michigan (such as Midland) also saw quite a bit of rainfall.

https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/State ... x?state=MI

[Mega Hertz]

Five internet dollars if anyone can guess what it's doing in Seattle---erm, Brighton...

[radioandtventhusiast]

I'm glad you're OK and good luck ZenithCKLW.

It was pretty heavy this morning in Toledo but the storms stopped probably at 4 AM.

[audiophile]

Most areas in SE Michigan saw less than a half inch of rain overnight last night, yet Dave Rexroth was talking as if a biblical flood was going to hit our region.

Much heavier totals in western lower Michigan, just like I said would be the case. Some pockets in central Michigan (such as Midland) also saw quite a bit of rainfall.

https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/State ... x?state=MI

Was he building an ark?

[Marcus]

Here in Sarnia we had a torrential downpour that overflowed the storms sewers on Friday afternoon. Roads and parking lots were flooded. That was the third Severe Storm to make its way into the city limits in the past month.

[MWmetalhead]

Was he building an ark?

He has a habit of blowing most upcoming rain storms and snow storms out of proportion.

I think I may have to start calling him Delusional Dave.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Rainfall totals are going to be a complete nothing burger for Metro Detroit and Ann Arbor.

Kudos to Fox 2 for getting it right!

Gigantic thumbs down to WXYZ for its embarrassing inaccuracy when it came to not only yesterday's high temps but also last night and this morning's rainfall totals.

To be fair, a lot of this is on the NWS who predicted 1-2" of rain.

[MWmetalhead]

They had a forecast graphic on their web site that showed 1 to 1.5 inches in most areas, which indeed proved to be overdone in the case of Metro Detroit. Usually, predictions within that range would not trigger a Flood Watch unless winter issues were in play.

I suspect the Flood Watch was primarily issued out of concern for a high leverage situation unfolding in flood prone Detroit and Dearborn, despite the risk itself being fairly low. The official SPC flooding outlook showed only a slight flooding risk across the region (they now issue a flood outlook with the same categories as the severe weather outlook). A couple of the high resolution rapid refresh models were showing small stripes or pockets of potential 2+ inch totals with highly uncertain placement. Others were keeping those totals far away from the heart of the metro with a half inch or less across most of SE Michigan. Those model runs, for the most part, proved accurate.

Rexroth was talking up the heavy rain threat much more than the NWS.

[Rate This]

They had a forecast graphic on their web site that showed 1 to 1.5 inches in most areas, which indeed proved to be overdone in the case of Metro Detroit. Usually, predictions within that range would not trigger a Flood Watch unless winter issues were in play.

I suspect the Flood Watch was primarily issued out of concern for a high leverage situation unfolding in flood prone Detroit and Dearborn, despite the risk itself being fairly low. The official SPC flooding outlook showed only a slight flooding risk across the region (they now issue a flood outlook with the same categories as the severe weather outlook). A couple of the high resolution rapid refresh models were showing small stripes or pockets of potential 2+ inch totals with highly uncertain placement. Others were keeping those totals far away from the heart of the metro with a half inch or less across most of SE Michigan. Those model runs, for the most part, proved accurate.

Rexroth was talking up the heavy rain threat much more than the NWS.

The concern was for training of the thunderstorm activity and a given area that saw such an effect would get the high totals. Where that might happen is impossible to say hence the watch and the blanket statements.

[jsf]

To top off weather talk I turn on Channel 7 Saturday evening and who's doing the weather but Chris Edwards.