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RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

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km1125
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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by km1125 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:11 am

So instead of actually addressing the resolving the original problems, you just resort to "just kill the baby!!" as the solution??



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audiophile
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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by audiophile » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:15 am

Ted Cruz made a legit argument for filling the Supreme court. A deadlock could cause a constitutional crisis.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/sen-ted ... e-election


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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by Rate This » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:21 am

audiophile wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:15 am
Ted Cruz made a legit argument for filling the Supreme court. A deadlock could cause a constitutional crisis.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/sen-ted ... e-election
They won’t be ruling on anything. Just follow the Biden rule and do it in the lame duck session.



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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by bmw » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:26 am

audiophile wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:15 am
Ted Cruz made a legit argument for filling the Supreme court. A deadlock could cause a constitutional crisis.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/sen-ted ... e-election
Except that it is currently a 5-3 Court and not a 4-4 Court. Unless he knows something we don't know about which way one of the 5 so-called Conservative justices would rule in such a scenario. I think he's more worried about a political crisis than a Constitutional one.



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audiophile
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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by audiophile » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:28 am

I guess his point is 4-4 deadlock is possible.


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bmw
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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by bmw » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:33 am

Again, that is only if one of the Conservative justices goes the other way. Which is what I mean when I say he's more worried about a political crisis than a Constitutional one, because whichever Conservative were to cause such a deadlock would immediately become Public Enemy #1 of the entire Republican party.

---------------------------

As to the politics of all of this, now that I've had some time to think about it, while I initially had some reservations about whether it would be political suicide for the Republicans to confirm a new Justice before the next Presidential term begins, I've ended up on the side of confirming one ASAP for the reason that Democrats would then be deflated going into the election. If Republicans either wait or attempt but fail (ie, not enough Senate votes), THAT would galvanize the left to show up in record numbers at the polls. But if they are already defeated on this issue before election day, it may dampen turnout. And I'm not sure how much having this be a lingering issue going into 2021 would help Republican turnout since they're already way more excited about their candidate than are the Democrats of theirs.

----------------------------

As to what is right or wrong, Trump has a Constitutional duty to nominate a Judge and the Senate has a Constitutional duty to conduct hearings. Ultimately, I think the Republicans got this one wrong in 2016.
Last edited by bmw on Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by Rate This » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:37 am

bmw wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:33 am
Again, that is only if one of the Conservative justices goes the other way. Which is what I mean when I say he's more worried about a political crisis than a Constitutional one, because whichever Conservative were to cause such a deadlock would immediately become Public Enemy #1 of the entire Republican party.

---------------------------

As to the politics of all of this, now that I've had some time to think about it, while I initially had some reservations about whether it would be political suicide for the Republicans to confirm a new Justice before the next Presidential term begins, I've ended up on the side of confirming one ASAP for the reason that Democrats would then be deflated going into the election. If Republicans either wait or attempt but fail (ie, not enough Senate votes), THAT would galvanize the left to show up in record numbers at the polls. But if they are already defeated on this issue before election day, it may dampen turnout.
Galvanizing People around judges is usually a Republican tactic. Democrats don’t get much mileage out of it. It’ll actually galvanize them if you confirm somebody, not deflate them. I would be very careful if I were the GOP. You’ll have a massive number of enraged Democrats over how it was handled by Trump and McConnell.



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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by bmw » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:38 am

Rate This wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:37 am
You’ll have a massive number of enraged Democrats over how it was handled by Trump and McConnell.
Democrats are perpetually enraged over anything and everything. This is nothing new.



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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by Rate This » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:38 am

bmw wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:38 am
Rate This wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:37 am
You’ll have a massive number of enraged Democrats over how it was handled by Trump and McConnell.
Democrats are perpetually enraged over anything and everything. This is nothing new.
These days everybody is perpetually enraged not just Democrats. The right has grown a cottage industry of 24/7 outrage media. Even the “liberal media” throws a feel good story in once in a while. Not the right wing folks. Nope. It’s more “hey we got time for one last outraged caller”

“but it’s 5:58:30 and we go off at 6”

“I know but put em through anyway, we gotta keep those ratings up!”

They’ll put callers in slots you didn’t know they would fit in to squeeze ratings (read: $$) out. All while not caring one whit about you or abortion or illegal immigrants or walls or any of it.
Last edited by Rate This on Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.



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bmw
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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by bmw » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:40 am

Rate This wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:37 am
Galvanizing People around judges is usually a Republican tactic. Democrats don’t get much mileage out of it. It’ll actually galvanize them if you confirm somebody, not deflate them. I would be very careful if I were the GOP...
How do you figure? If a judge is already confirmed before the election, then it is already a done deal. I'm just thinking back to Kavanaugh. The left was enraged over that right up until he was confirmed. After that, the story very quickly went away and you rarely saw Kavanaugh's name in the news ever again.



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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by bmw » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:42 am

Rate This wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:38 am
These days everybody is perpetually enraged not just Democrats.
Except that Democrats are the ones burning cities to the ground over their "rage."



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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by Rate This » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:45 am

bmw wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:40 am
Rate This wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:37 am
Galvanizing People around judges is usually a Republican tactic. Democrats don’t get much mileage out of it. It’ll actually galvanize them if you confirm somebody, not deflate them. I would be very careful if I were the GOP...
How do you figure? If a judge is already confirmed before the election, then it is already a done deal. I'm just thinking back to Kavanaugh. The left was enraged over that right up until he was confirmed. After that, the story very quickly went away and you rarely saw Kavanaugh's name in the news ever again.
The left and a large majority of independents were already ready to walk over hot coals to kick Trump out not necessarily to elect Biden. They’ll take everybody. So this will only enrage those folks further. There really are no swing voters this time and the battle lines are hardened. Doing the dirty work now simply piss those people off.

You’re not gonna deflate people who were already energized absent this by shoving a nominee down their throats... that’s more like poking the bear. We know Trump is an underdog in this race that’s just simple math. His path is incredibly narrow and he essentially has to draw a Royal Flush a second time. Maybe he should be waiting so he doesn’t deflate his people. He’s been assuring them all that it’s in the bag and the Democrats can only win by fraud and a bunch Of other things that might make folks get Hillary syndrome and not vote thinking it’s a done deal. It makes zero sense. And the pundits in FOX have been doing the exact same predicting a 400-138 blowout (just approximating).



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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by Rate This » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:51 am

bmw wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:42 am
Rate This wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:38 am
These days everybody is perpetually enraged not just Democrats.
Except that Democrats are the ones burning cities to the ground over their "rage."
Those folks burning things down are no more real Democrats or the core of any constituency than skinheads are to the Republicans.

Besides... there isn’t much going on now. The saliency of the law and order message seems to be falling flat.



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bmw
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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by bmw » Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:04 pm

People who bet on this stuff seem to think that Trump has been marginally helped by this situation.

https://www.predictit.org/

Florida for the first time in months is in the red and Trump is up to 46% to win for the first time in 3 weeks.

Based on where that map stands now, Trump is just one more flip from an electoral tie (PA) or any 2 of 4 (AZ, MI, WI, and MN) for an outright win.



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Re: RUTH BADER GINSBURG DEAD

Post by audiophile » Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:05 pm

I find people that I wouldn't consider to be hardcore conservatives are the ones flying the Trump flags.


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