Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

[bmw]

I haven't really watched the news today or listened to any commentary on this, other than reading a few headlines and then watching the first 10 minutes or so of Trump's announcement today. So these are my thoughts based purely on that:

On the surface, it looks like Pelosi won this battle. The reality was that Trump had no choice but to allow the government to re-open soon. Realistically he couldn't allow a 3rd paycheck to not be collected by government workers without all but his base abandoning him, leaving him at about 30 to 35% approval. The biggest blunder he made in all of this was in "owning" the shutdown early on. By taking the blame, he gave democrats an out so they wouldn't have to negotiate. And that is exactly what they did. Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are both slimeballs - the absolute worst kind of politicians. I can't stand the sight of either one of them.

I think Trump mis-calculated just how much of a slimeball Pelosi and Schumer really are. I think he expected them to eventually negotiate. However, they played a game of chicken, and Trump lost.

It will be interesting to see what ultimately comes out of committee. Not knowing who exactly is on these committees I cannot make any predictions, but my gut tells me that either Trump thinks he will still ultimately get a wall, or that he is just setting the stage to eventually declare a national emergency. I do not think he shuts down the government a second time.

[TC Talks]

Classic BMW,

You can cite miniscule facts when you need to but when your party just got its ass handed to them, you haven't had a chance to catch the news. Here's the headline, the moron lost.

In general, anyone openly supporting the wall rather than meaningful immigration policy is an idiot hands down. It was a token, a symbol of the lunacy that is Donald Trump.

I have no problem with the two parties working out a plan that is both Humane and enforces this country's laws but doing token things that will have no impact just because some moron spouts off during his campaign is a waste of our money and it offends me. Anyone who calls himself a Republican who thinks that was necessary really needs to question their understanding of the GOP.

[bmw]

Trump may be the single worst negotiator and strategist in history... all bark and absolutely no bite. Next.

I'm going to hold off judgment until Feb 15th. This isn't over yet. If in the end he signs legislation that doesn't include a wall, then I will be inclined to agree on the latter half of your statement.

His problem is that if he totally caves on this, his base will start to crack. And speaking of crack - is that what Ann Coulter is smoking? OMG I can't stand her. I occasionally agree with her political opinions but I get the impression that she is just a mean and nasty person.

[Lester The Nightfly]

I haven't really watched the news today or listened to any commentary on this, other than reading a few headlines and then watching the first 10 minutes or so of Trump's announcement today. So these are my thoughts based purely on that:

On the surface, it looks like Pelosi won this battle. The reality was that Trump had no choice but to allow the government to re-open soon. Realistically he couldn't allow a 3rd paycheck to not be collected by government workers without all but his base abandoning him, leaving him at about 30 to 35% approval. The biggest blunder he made in all of this was in "owning" the shutdown early on. By taking the blame, he gave democrats an out so they wouldn't have to negotiate. And that is exactly what they did. Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are both slimeballs - the absolute worst kind of politicians. I can't stand the sight of either one of them.

I think Trump mis-calculated just how much of a slimeball Pelosi and Schumer really are. I think he expected them to eventually negotiate. However, they played a game of chicken, and Trump lost.

It will be interesting to see what ultimately comes out of committee. Not knowing who exactly is on these committees I cannot make any predictions, but my gut tells me that either Trump thinks he will still ultimately get a wall, or that he is just setting the stage to eventually declare a national emergency. I do not think he shuts down the government a second time.

[bmw]

Classic BMW,

You can cite miniscule facts when you need to but when your party just got its ass handed to them, you haven't had a chance to catch the news. Here's the headline, the moron lost.

Busy work day, my friend. Believe it or not some people do sometimes have to work all day on a Friday and then some and don't have time to catch the news and listen to/watch the follow-up punditry. I certainly will be doing that before I go to sleep tonight. Just thought I'd put my own thoughts on this out there before listening to anybody else's.

[bmw]

Ah, so walls DO work!

[stopnswop2]

Lmao

[Deleted User 8570]

Trump may be the single worst negotiator and strategist in history... all bark and absolutely no bite. Next.

I'm going to hold off judgment until Feb 15th. This isn't over yet. If in the end he signs legislation that doesn't include a wall, then I will be inclined to agree on the latter half of your statement.

His problem is that if he totally caves on this, his base will start to crack. And speaking of crack - is that what Ann Coulter is smoking? OMG I can't stand her. I occasionally agree with her political opinions but I get the impression that she is just a mean and nasty person.

His base is already cracking... he is losing white working class voters... CNN’s poll of polls has him at 37% approval on average... he had to stop the bleeding. It’s been said that the airlines gridlocking would be a bridge too far for him to keep this up... well look what started to happen on the East coast and how fast he caved...

He always caves of course... he’s not tough at all.

[craig11152]

In my moderate independent opinion it is in liberals best interest not to overplay the "Trump caved" card.
1. It will only serve to rally his support. Most importantly people ready to dump him but haven't yet done so.
2. We all know Trump has incredibly thin skin and doesn't take criticism well at all. So since liberals won this round being a "humble winner" is the best strategy.

[TC Talks]

In my moderate independent opinion it is in liberals best interest not to overplay the "Trump caved" card.
1. It will only serve to rally his support. Most importantly people ready to dump him but haven't yet done so.
2. We all know Trump has incredibly thin skin and doesn't take criticism well at all. So since liberals won this round being a "humble winner" is the best strategy.

from everything I'm reading this morning I don't believe they are gloating too hard. Mitch McConnell is taking some heat for sitting on the sidelines and not putting forth any effort to resolve things. I do think that this has been costly for Republican legislators.

[MWmetalhead]

Regarding all bark & no bite:
- Trump has failed to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for humanitarian atrocities;
- His (sloppily waged) fight for a legislative replacement to Obamacare failed;
- He's flipped & flopped on Syria;
- The USMCA still has not been voted on by Congress;
- We're still waiting for a national infrastructure proposal;
- We're still waiting for a prescription drugs regulatory reform proposal;
- We're still waiting for a "wall."

The only three major promises Trump has kept: broad income tax reform, commercial regulatory relief and withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal. Only the first of these three items required legislative approval. Thus, the latter two are not exactly a credit to Trump's self-professed negotiating prowess.

[bmw]

That's not entirely fair. Trump has quite a few major accomplishments, many of which were made in the face of serious opposition by liberals. The biggest of which was delivering on his promise to put conservative judges on the Supreme Court.
He could have easily caved on Kavanaugh by withdrawing his nomination, but in the end Trump won that battle despite an immense smear campaign against Kavanaugh. This was a major accomplishment, IMO.

Other notable accomplishments:
-The USCMA Trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada (verdict still out, but I expect this to be ratified this year)
-Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (libs threw a fit over this one)
-Moved the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem (many libs threw a fit over this one despite some supporting the proposed move in the past)
-North Korea summit (long-term verdict still out but for the time being Kim Jong Un seems to have been kept in check)

[MWmetalhead]

Many of those examples are not indicative of negotiating ability.

-USCMA: hasn't even been voted on by Congress yet. (I do support the deal reached, and I've given Trump credit in the past for that. BUT - it hasn't been codified into law yet.)
-Withdrawal from Paris climate accord: no legislative approval required; no negotiating skill required.
-Movement of U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem: who gives a flying f*ck. This issue wasn't even on the radar for 95%+ of the voting public. This matter also required no new Congressional approval (it was permitted by an existing law that dates back to 1995). No negotiating skill required.
- North Korea summit: Served to de-escalate tensions after Trump had a hand in escalating tensions.
- Kavanaugh: His nomination was approved by a GOP-led Senate. Was a much more troublesome process than it should've been. I don't give Trump credit for the outcome here. Kavanaugh's passionate defense & testimony before the Senate is single-handedly responsible.

Trump is such a GREAT negotiator that his first several choices for running mate all turned him down.

Great negotiators don't have subordinates and bevvies of lawyers do their bidding.

[bmw]

It was more of a response to the "all bark no bite" comment. He did some largely unpopular things that he had promised to do, and did so in spite of united opposition from the left and even some moderates.

[MWmetalhead]

Fair enough. Indeed, he's kept some of campaign promises and delivered on those items successfully. BUT - the hurdle for being able to deliver on most of those items was not particularly high.

He kept citing his negotiating prowess during the campaign. I've yet to see substantial evidence that it's a strong asset in terms of policy making through the legislative process. Yes, he got tax reform done - but Republicans controlled both chambers. Not exactly a tough challenge.