IHME projects 6.4 million Michiganders will get Covid between now and end of March

[bmw]

No, that is not a typo. Literally 2 out of every 3 residents in the state of Michigan are projected to get Covid within the next 100 days.

Looks like the current projections for Omicron are for it to literally spread like wildfire. The IHME projects that nearly 2/3 of Michigan's population will get Covid between now and April 1, 2022.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... infections

Daily infections projected to peak at over 100,000 PER DAY in the state.

National peak at near 3 million per day.

The good news is the same projections suggest that the hospitalization rate (nationally), at least per case, will be down 80%, as cases are projected to peak at 5x higher than they were a year ago but hospital resources projected to peak at the same 1x level.

If this doesn't get us to herd immunity, nothing will.

[Matt]

Herd immunity isn't a thing with this. It is endemic as I've believed for awhile.

[bmw]

It will be if and when you infect 2/3 of a population within 100 days. This is more immunity in a short time than you could have ever hoped to achieve with a vaccine. And with the 80% projected reduction in hospitalizations, this in all honesty could end up being the mutation that (relatively) safely puts a quick end to this pandemic before another mutation can even emerge.

Help me understand why you don't believe natural immunity is a thing. When you catch the virus, your body creates antibodies to fight it. It is the same type of antibody response you would get with a live vaccine.

[Matt]

I don't think this thing is going to go away. We need it weakened to the point where it's a nuisance like a common cold. We need to end the stigma, and we need to resume our lives.

[bmw]

Well, projections are 80% reduced hospitalizations. I'd say that's a good start.

As to natural immunity - the problem with trying to reach herd immunity with pre-Omicron variants has been that while it spread fast, it never spread fast enough, and because the efficacy of natural immunity from people who got Covid in 2020 is waning as well as the efficacy from early vaccinators having waned much faster than predicted, and before herd immunity thresholds were ever reached, we were never able to break the cycle.

But Omicron is a different story entirely (potentially). We're talking not only a 5x acceleration in spread, but a number of infections so high that if we do indeed reach 2/3 natural immunity in 100 days, the efficacy of that immunity will still be high come spring. The entire group will have recent immunity - you won't have a situation where some of the immunity was acquired a year ago. Add that to the people in the other 1/3 who got Delta over the past few months, and you're probably at 75-80% of the population having high-efficacy natural immunity come spring. And because Omicron is SO contagious, I also gotta believe that it would be difficult for any other mutations to take hold.

My hope is that Omicron completely burns itself out before another mutation has a chance to take hold.

[TC Talks]

Hope all you want, you're celebrating the death of your fellow citizens.

[Deleted User 15716]

I don't think this thing is going to go away. We need it weakened to the point where it's a nuisance like a common cold. We need to end the stigma, and we need to resume our lives.

Exactly. It will become just as common to catch Covid as it is to catch the flu.
And become just as routine to treat as the flu is now. Like I said in another thread, I believe everyone will have it to some degree. Like the flu, it won't influence young and healthy people that much. And like the flu, many will not realize they even had it until it passes.

Unfortunately, it will throw a curveball to many seniors and those with pre-existing respiratory issues. Just like the flu.