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Vaccine rollout

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km1125
Posts: 3570
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:09 pm

Vaccine rollout

Post by km1125 » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:44 pm

I'm a little confused.

We have just under 10 million folks in the state. We have to get to ~70% to get "herd immunity", so we have to get about 7 million vaccines. That also lines up pretty good with an earlier estimate that I saw from the State that if we focused on the high-risk and the front line folks mostly, and then got a chunk of the general population, we could get 7 million vaccinated by the Aug/Sept period.

I see (via the State's own website) that we've received 1.8 Million doses, but only have administered 1.2 million, yet I hear folks complaining all the time that we can't "go faster" because we don't have the inventory. We haven't been catching up to the supply since we first started getting vaccine shipments, and it's pretty clear the shipments are going to ramp up even further when the J&J and Atrazenica (which are imminent) and the others get approved (there are 18 more trials going on in the USA now). If we haven't been catching up in the last couple weeks, how does anyone expect we'll do better in the future??

Also, it's only been a little over a month since we've seriously been rolling out what we have. We've done 1.2M so far, which would be about 17% of the 7M goal, or 12% of the total state, but I only see an 8% number advertised. If we're at 17% of the 7M goal, shouldn't it take only 6 months to effectively get to "herd immunity" even at the current rate??

EDIT: just rechecking some numbers, and part of that 1.2M is second doses.... about 250K. So we've only done about a million individuals.



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Turkeytop
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Re: Vaccine rollout

Post by Turkeytop » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:56 pm

Consider yourself fortunate. Our dumb ass Liberal government in Canada forgot to order a supply of vaccine until it was too late. Now they tell us they'll be ready to roll out a made in Canada vaccine some time in 2023.


I started out with nothing and I still have most of it.

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TC Talks
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Re: Vaccine rollout

Post by TC Talks » Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:59 pm

A few things to consider...

It takes time for the data to get back to the state. So 1.8 doses have been delivered, 1.2 have been verified to have made it into arms, 600,000 are in the process. We get our doses every Friday in our county. It take a week to get them into arms. It take a few more days to get the data back into the state database. There's your lag.

Then you have 3 distribution channels; State to health department, Federal to Hospitals, Federal to Nursing Homes.

Hope this helps.


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Rate This
Posts: 13966
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: Vaccine rollout

Post by Rate This » Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:31 pm

km1125 wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:44 pm
I'm a little confused.

We have just under 10 million folks in the state. We have to get to ~70% to get "herd immunity", so we have to get about 7 million vaccines. That also lines up pretty good with an earlier estimate that I saw from the State that if we focused on the high-risk and the front line folks mostly, and then got a chunk of the general population, we could get 7 million vaccinated by the Aug/Sept period.

I see (via the State's own website) that we've received 1.8 Million doses, but only have administered 1.2 million, yet I hear folks complaining all the time that we can't "go faster" because we don't have the inventory. We haven't been catching up to the supply since we first started getting vaccine shipments, and it's pretty clear the shipments are going to ramp up even further when the J&J and Atrazenica (which are imminent) and the others get approved (there are 18 more trials going on in the USA now). If we haven't been catching up in the last couple weeks, how does anyone expect we'll do better in the future??

Also, it's only been a little over a month since we've seriously been rolling out what we have. We've done 1.2M so far, which would be about 17% of the 7M goal, or 12% of the total state, but I only see an 8% number advertised. If we're at 17% of the 7M goal, shouldn't it take only 6 months to effectively get to "herd immunity" even at the current rate??

EDIT: just rechecking some numbers, and part of that 1.2M is second doses.... about 250K. So we've only done about a million individuals.
So we'll be there in about August-ish.



MotorCityRadioFreak
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Location: Warren, MI

Re: Vaccine rollout

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:07 pm

Astra Zeneca and Johnson&Johnson are going to be authorized shortly which will accelerate this process. I expect we reach 70% by July 4th, provided that a few anti vaxxers change their mind(which some will).


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ftballfan
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 6:38 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout

Post by ftballfan » Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:30 am

Turkeytop wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:56 pm
Consider yourself fortunate. Our dumb ass Liberal government in Canada forgot to order a supply of vaccine until it was too late. Now they tell us they'll be ready to roll out a made in Canada vaccine some time in 2023.
Canada's been trying to handle COVID like Australia and New Zealand (making international and interstate travel all but illegal, therefore forcing snowbirds to suffer through a Canadian winter) and they've failed



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