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Whitmer Misses The Mark

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km1125
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by km1125 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:32 pm

Rate This wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:11 pm
bmw wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:04 pm
Rate This wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:53 pm
bmw wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:52 pm
Rate This wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:49 pm
You realize there is still no evidence that it works and that taking it indiscriminately could kill people right?
So don't take it indiscriminately. It is still by prescription only. Are you suggesting that the doctors prescribing it don't know what they're doing?
With no evidence that it is effective in treating it... it’s essentially “here try this”.... that’s the textbook definition of not knowing what you’re doing. It would be like asking them to try an herbal remedy or grind up the scales of a Pangolin for ancient Chinese Medicine.... There is no more than anecdotal evidence that this stuff is effective while we know the side effects of this drug can be rather grave. Suddenly giving it to somebody full bore could harm them in other ways or even kill them.
So you're smarter than the doctors prescribing it. Got it.
No.. I’m just saying that we need to do proper testing to figure out whether it works. The doctors prescribing it are literally just guessing. Rather than roll out there with a haphazard announcement Trump should have ordered such trials to begin and when it was proven to work had it announced as a tool to fight the virus. Instead we are guessing how well it’ll work while people who need it can’t get it. There’s a reason Fauci is saying it’s not proven beyond anecdotes... I think he IS smarter than many of your average GP’s...
There is PLENTY of evidence that it is effective, just no clinical trials at this point.


Is anybody else wondering how much Gilbert is going to make by providing the Suburban Collection Showplace as a temp medical facility?



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audiophile
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by audiophile » Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:30 am

Another person I know in the industry was saved with the anti-malaria drug. This person was high risk.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

Matt
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by Matt » Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:31 pm

Anyone want to wager on what tomorrow's extension will be?

I'm hoping it has the following elements:

-A clear plan forward, meaning if the extension announced tomorrow has a definitive end
-A plan for how phased reopening can happen. Bonus points if phased reopening starts prior to 4/13
-Evidence that there is a solid plan in place for future occurrences. There is significant evidence that we've mostly done what has been asked of us as Michigan residents

What I expect is an extension to 4/30 and bitching about the federal government.



Rate This
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Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by Rate This » Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:56 pm

Matt wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:31 pm
Anyone want to wager on what tomorrow's extension will be?

I'm hoping it has the following elements:

-A clear plan forward, meaning if the extension announced tomorrow has a definitive end
-A plan for how phased reopening can happen. Bonus points if phased reopening starts prior to 4/13
-Evidence that there is a solid plan in place for future occurrences. There is significant evidence that we've mostly done what has been asked of us as Michigan residents

What I expect is an extension to 4/30 and bitching about the federal government.
Extension to 4/30 and after that a gradual reopening.



Rate This
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Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by Rate This » Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:56 pm

km1125 wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:32 pm
Rate This wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:11 pm
bmw wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:04 pm
Rate This wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:53 pm
bmw wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:52 pm
Rate This wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:49 pm
You realize there is still no evidence that it works and that taking it indiscriminately could kill people right?
So don't take it indiscriminately. It is still by prescription only. Are you suggesting that the doctors prescribing it don't know what they're doing?
With no evidence that it is effective in treating it... it’s essentially “here try this”.... that’s the textbook definition of not knowing what you’re doing. It would be like asking them to try an herbal remedy or grind up the scales of a Pangolin for ancient Chinese Medicine.... There is no more than anecdotal evidence that this stuff is effective while we know the side effects of this drug can be rather grave. Suddenly giving it to somebody full bore could harm them in other ways or even kill them.
So you're smarter than the doctors prescribing it. Got it.
No.. I’m just saying that we need to do proper testing to figure out whether it works. The doctors prescribing it are literally just guessing. Rather than roll out there with a haphazard announcement Trump should have ordered such trials to begin and when it was proven to work had it announced as a tool to fight the virus. Instead we are guessing how well it’ll work while people who need it can’t get it. There’s a reason Fauci is saying it’s not proven beyond anecdotes... I think he IS smarter than many of your average GP’s...
There is PLENTY of evidence that it is effective, just no clinical trials at this point.


Is anybody else wondering how much Gilbert is going to make by providing the Suburban Collection Showplace as a temp medical facility?
The French study so oft cited by Trump has been disavowed by the society that published it...
https://apple.news/AyLBVB7FATgiJ0zcyix1aQw



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audiophile
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by audiophile » Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:17 pm

Whitmer also has tossed out the race card. Maybe she should have suggesting eating correctly, not smoking and getting off the couch.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

bmw
Posts: 1906
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by bmw » Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:20 pm

I'm not watching her conference.

Has she yet incorrectly stated that our cases are still increasing every day as opposed to decreasing?



Rate This
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by Rate This » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:08 pm

bmw wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:20 pm
I'm not watching her conference.

Has she yet incorrectly stated that our cases are still increasing every day as opposed to decreasing?
What evidence is there of a decrease here in Michigan?



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audiophile
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by audiophile » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:25 pm

New numbers are down.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

bmw
Posts: 1906
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by bmw » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:27 pm

Rate This wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:08 pm
bmw wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:20 pm
I'm not watching her conference.

Has she yet incorrectly stated that our cases are still increasing every day as opposed to decreasing?
What evidence is there of a decrease here in Michigan?
Both yesterday's and today's numbers are the lowest since the last day of March. Sure looks like we're on the down-side of the curve to me. Obviously I'd like to see 2 or 3 more days of data to confirm the trend, but this is what we have now:

Image



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Howard Jones
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by Howard Jones » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:42 pm

It's semantics. Cases will increase in Michigan until (if) there is a way to completely eradicate the virus from the globe.

What has been decreasing overall since March 24th (almost linearly) is the rate that that new cases increase each day. Here are the real numbers that no one reports:

March 24 - 34.86% increase in cases since the previous day
3/25 - 28.14%
3/26 - 24.44%
3/27 - 28.05%
3/28 - 27.15%
3/29 - 17.98%
3/30 - 18.45%
3/31 - 17.19%
4/1 - 22.57%
4/2 - 15.61%
4/3 - 18.10%
4/4 - 11.62%
4/5 - 10.50%
4/6 - 9.56%
4/7 - 10.16%
4/8 - 7.25%
4/9 - 5.69%

Because of the way the curve of infectious diseases work, it's VERY difficult to get to the point where you can have fewer actual cases from the day before. But that's what has happened this week:
March 24 - +463 cases
3/25 - 504
3/26 - 561
3/27 - 801
3/28 - 993
3/29 - 836
3/30 - 1012
3/31 - 1117
4/1 - 1719
4/2 - 1457
4/3 - 1953
4/4 - 1481
4/5 - 1493
4/6 - 1503
4/7 - 1749
4/8 - 1376
4/9 - 1158

These numbers show that the peak of reported cases actually happened on April 3rd, we hit a plateau for a few days, and now it appears we're on a downward trajectory. This is happening with increased testing, especially in the hardest hit area - the city of Detroit.

I understand the need to continue to restrict activities -- but at some point, the governor has to be truthful about "what we're seeing on the ground".


Things can only get better

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Howard Jones
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by Howard Jones » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:47 pm

One H*** piece of missing data that they are not sharing at all with us?

How many of the new cases over the past week are the people that are working the frontlines and/or living in households with confirmed cases that have been directly exposed to someone that is sick?

What is the real world community spread right now -- how many people are getting sick without knowing how they got it????


Things can only get better

Rate This
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Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by Rate This » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:53 pm

Howard Jones wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:47 pm
One H*** piece of missing data that they are not sharing at all with us?

How many of the new cases over the past week are the people that are working the frontlines and/or living in households with confirmed cases that have been directly exposed to someone that is sick?

What is the real world community spread right now -- how many people are getting sick without knowing how they got it????
I Think many more people have had it than we are aware of... we may even be farther ahead of the game than we think. I don’t think the order gets extended again.



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Howard Jones
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Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by Howard Jones » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:56 pm

Rate This wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:53 pm
I Think many more people have had it than we are aware of... we may even be farther ahead of the game than we think. I don’t think the order gets extended again.
Agree 100%. I'll even predict there will be challenges in court to this latest executive order before it is set to expire.


Things can only get better

bmw
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Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Whitmer Misses The Mark

Post by bmw » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:05 pm

As I said before - most experts agree (and you don't hear this reported much) that the number of actual cases is likely 9x-12x higher than the reported cases. Why does this not get reported? Because it means the mortality rate is probably closer to 0.2 to 0.5% than it is to 2-3%. For reference, the Hong Kong flu of 1968-1969 had a mortality rate of 0.5% and killed 100,000 Americans. Life went on basically as normal both during and after.

As to extending the order - IF this trend holds, the number of new daily cases will be near zero before the end of the month. Whitmer made her decision over a week ago. I think she pushed her luck by extending it until April 30 because I think that the Republican-controlled legislature will block any efforts to extend it further (again - that is IF the trend continues). She should have extended it until April 23 and then at that time issued a 1-week extension of a less-strict order - then maybe Republicans would have allowed some form of restrictions to carry into May.



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