Thu. night - Saturday storm system

[bmw]

re: wind chill - What I don't like about the wind chill is that it is measured as a temperature. The air temperature is the air temperature regardless of wind speed. And the temperature you feel on your bare skin is affected by a whole host of factors. Even ignoring that the biggest factor is how people dress, there are other factors such as whether the sun is shining, the humidity, whether there's a wind gust, etc. At best, the wind chill is an incomplete number that varies literally every few seconds.

If it were me, I would change the reporting of the wind chill to a 0-10 point index like how the UV index is reported. And into that index calculation, I would incorporate actual air temperature, wind speed, wind gust peak speed, sunshine/cloudy/nighttime, and humidity. Then you could have official guidelines on how one should dress while outdoors based on that index value. Something like 1-3: light jacket. 4-5: heavy jacket. 6-7: heavy jacket + gloves + hat, etc.

[audiophile]

In fairness to the so-called experts, forecasting a storm like this, particularly in the state of Michigan which has more variables than anywhere else in the country, is not an exact science.

That said, here's my problem. Most model runs from any weather forecasting computer are updated every 6 hours. And if you take the past 5 or 6 runs from any model, you can find one run from one model that shows a super high snow total in a specific location. What the forecasters seem to do is take the highest totals they can find for any particular region from any particular model run and combine them all into one single forecast map. And they're very slow to react to consistent shifts in storm tracks that come with each subsequent model run. And as I noted earlier, they all seem to underestimate the effect the lakes have on temperatures and the effect that has on precipitation type, at least close to the lakes.

And what is undoubtedly upsetting to some people is that they ended up unnecessarily canceling holiday travel plans.

I have to give kudos to the NWS automated forecast generator... it consistently called for an inch or two TOTAL down here in western Wayne county. I can still see the grass at this time.

NWS is not automated; humans do check and tweak forecasts.

When you go on the forecast office website and type in your zip code the forecast you get specifically for that location comes from an algorithm. For my location it always called for less than everyone else. A human could not manually input data for thousands of locations every 5 hours.

They manually select which model to use, and I agree there is some 'K' factor automatically applied to each location from the base model.

[MWmetalhead]

The grid point forecasts on the NWS website have been malfunctioning lately with regard to precip.

Right now, if I click on Grand Rapids, total daytime snow of only an inch is shown. It's been snowing moderately to heavily across a good chunk of that area all morning, including right now.

About 10 days ago, a grid point forecast for Birmingham called for a 30 percent chance of light snow, with no accumulation. Light snow and flurries enveloped much of the area at the time, and it had already been snowing intermittently (albeit very lightly) for a few hours.

[craig11152]

Wind Chill Advisory
A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for your area.
For more info https://evbg.co/2hhk0g .

This is what I mean. Nicely stated without overcooking.
A text I get from Washtenaw County.

[Mega Hertz]

Wind Chill Advisory
A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for your area.
For more info https://evbg.co/2hhk0g .

This is what I mean. Nicely stated without overcooking.
A text I get from Washtenaw County.

We were in Washtenaw County this morning and, as soon as we crossed 8 mile on 23 south, the roads already looked better than Livingston county. Can't figure out why.

[Motown322]

As someone who spent 16 of my first 18 years on this planet in Livingston County, my guess as to the reason why is because Livingston County sucks.

[MWmetalhead]

20 inches of snow have accumulated since Thursday at the Gerald R. Ford International Airport in Kent County, and it's still snowing there!

[Musicrewired]

3.8" Thur, 7.5" Fri, 10.5" Sat. Those are NWS totals for the 3 days from their office just outside of GRR. 36.6" for December, 64.6" since the season started last month. Normal to date is 22.9", and last year GR had received 14.1" to date. More snow is forecast through Sunday evening.

Needless to say the plow companies are probably a lot busier than usual. A white Christmas means a Stan Freberg-inspired Green Christma$ for them.

Sounds like a scenario orchestrated by the infamous Santos L. Halper.

[MWmetalhead]

Good data; thanks for sharing those numbers. The Grand Rapids NWS did a terrible job yesterday with snowfall projections for Kent County.

Parts of the Lansing area have received about one foot of snow since Thursday.

My heaviest snow came from a brief burst between 9:30p and Midnight last night. The concrete is now completely covered for the first time, and I will be shoveling or snowblowing later today. I'd say there's a couple inches on the ground here.

[TC Talks]

If you add a foot, you might have accurate snow totals...

[craig11152]

I drove from Ann Arbor to Grosse Pointe Farms about 9:30 yesterday morning on I-94. Never felt comfortable going more than 40-48 mph.
Coming back home around 1:30 or 2 pm speeds were back to a more normal 70. Big difference in a few hours.

[radioandtventhusiast]

I must say, in Toledo, we were lucky. Yes it was cold and windy, but we never lost power or had lights flicker, and the snow was probably about 2 to 4 inches. We were debating whether to have Christmas Eve with the family due to the forecast, but we ended up going ahead and doing it. Now, we may end up being close to 60 by NYE.

[Mega Hertz]

Was it annoying? Yes.

Was it an inconvenience? Yes.

Was it too cold? You bet your hardened nipples.

Was it as bad as it could have been?


Nope.


Besides, probably 80-90% of this (if not all of it) will be washed away by this time next week. Take the victory where I can get it.