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I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:57 am

Most of westen lower saw nothing more than garden variety precip. Only severe wind reports have been from far western Ottawa plus Allegan County so far.

There have been a number of severe reports from Chicagoland.

Looks like all the hype from the NWS didn't verify as far as western MI is concerned. Not at all surprised.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Thu Jul 29, 2021 11:03 am

A number of win damage reports have rolled in from Kalamazoo county.

Pockets of greater Chicago were hit quite hard. NWS screwed up by not upgrading the severe wx outlook for that region.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by SoutheastMIViewer » Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:07 pm

No rain at all as car and pavement dry. Novi area


If you don’t have a mask covering your exhaust pipe on the car, you are not trying to stop global warming by preventing the harmful emission particles from spraying out!

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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Deleted User 15225 » Thu Jul 29, 2021 1:55 pm

How many threads are there on here bitching about weather forecasts.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Thunderstorm » Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:49 pm

Reports from the NWS Grand Rapids: HIGHEST WIND REPORTS.

61 MPH 0407 AM 07/29 3 N Macatawa
58 MPH 0412 AM 07/29 Holland Harbor
51 MPH 0510 AM 07/29 Plainwell
47 MPH 0400 AM 07/29 3 W Port Sheldon
45 MPH 0542 AM 07/29 Kzoo/battle Creek Intl Airport
43 MPH 0454 AM 07/29 Saugatuck Pier
41 MPH 0421 AM 07/29 West Mich Regional Arpt
40 MPH 0435 AM 07/29 South Haven Rgnl Airport
36 MPH 0455 AM 07/29 Allegan
35 MPH 0408 AM 07/29 Grand Haven Light



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Deleted User 15225 » Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:02 pm

This has nothing to do with media.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:29 pm

Why do you keep reading the thread if it is of no interest?



jadednihilist
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:58 pm

To the NWS's credit, forecasting derechos is really hard and the science has really improved immensely in the past couple of decades. As an undergrad, I got to participate in a couple of projects and field campaigns to better understand mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), including a project specifically dedicated to derechos. Back then there were definite false negatives that caused billions of dollars in damages. Now we're at least at a point to a relatively decent degree of certainty able to predict the development and impacts of severe MCSs, but forecasting exactly when and where the storm will track is a completely different challenge.

I can tell you that it's definitely much easier to speculate forecast scenarios on social media, among friends, and in forums. It's a lot more challenging in the hot seat when peoples lives and livelihoods depend on your accuracy. My friends that went on to work at the NWS constantly try to maintain that balance of appropriate warnings given forecast uncertainty as well as trying to avoid too many false alarms to the point that warnings mean nothing.

Going back to the science, my post mortem is as follows: models were hedging on a large pool of extremely unstable air to build over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Smoke from the crazy fire season, which is not at all resolved by models, filtered sunshine, limiting the heating and keeping the main axis of instability farther west. Derechos like to ride these instability gradients (generally found along frontal boundaries) where there is a smaller cap, stronger wind shear from the jet aloft, and enough instability to fuel deep convection. Storm motion is a result of two competing components: 1) upper level wind flows pushing the storms in a certain direction and 2) developing updrafts at the leading edge of the storm taking advantage of the combination of lift from the storm's cold pool and freshly untapped warm and moist unstable air. To a reasonable degree of accuracy, you can use something called the Corfidi vectors (details in this paper) to estimate MCS velocities and trajectories. This framework is a simplified model, so it's not perfect in the real world... but that's why there was the uncertainty with regard to how much the low level jet and the instability axis would drive storm motions last night. The CAMs really didn't handle this well during the event. Old school forecasting techniques (hand analysis of surface/upper air obs, checking radar/satellite) as well as a good handle of the governing equations still is probably the best way to go for severe weather forecasting.

I'm thankful we caught a break this time in Michigan. We'll probably be doing this again sometime soon until the larger summer pattern finally breaks. I really enjoyed the discussions, so thanks for keeping it going.


I'm here for a good, hearty debate, to agree and disagree respectfully, and commiserate on the current state of terrestrial radio.

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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MasterB » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:17 am

I was glad the models were wrong yesterday MCS/derecho didn't form as NWS was saying like that the smoke and the clouds stayed in place in MN. I was just hoping that the models were wrong wrong wrong, Anthony Domol from Fox17 gets a little into the weather terms he talked about MCS and explain what that means and said maybe a derecho on Tue evening weather about yesterdays storms/overnight.


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Rate This
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Rate This » Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:35 am

selurzam wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:02 pm
This has nothing to do with media.
How do you figure? A bunch of T fucking V weather forecasters plus the NWS royally screwed up a forecast….



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WOHO
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by WOHO » Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:02 pm

Even old school Blizzard Bill Spencer was calling for a chance of a derecho in NW Ohio. There's only been 3 in my whole lifetime, so I thought that was a pretty ballsy call, but seeing he's not on the air anymore, he can take that wild chance that a derecho forms and he's the media hero. Instead of staying on the SPC forecast moving SE into NW OH, it split, took the larger section thru the Ft. Wayne area. Mr. jadednihilist - thanks for your insights to the wild world of derechos. Look up July 4, 1969 for the one that smoked Toledo.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Wed Aug 04, 2021 4:08 pm

WOHO wrote:
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:02 pm
Even old school Blizzard Bill Spencer was calling for a chance of a derecho in NW Ohio. There's only been 3 in my whole lifetime, so I thought that was a pretty ballsy call, but seeing he's not on the air anymore, he can take that wild chance that a derecho forms and he's the media hero. Instead of staying on the SPC forecast moving SE into NW OH, it split, took the larger section thru the Ft. Wayne area. Mr. jadednihilist - thanks for your insights to the wild world of derechos. Look up July 4, 1969 for the one that smoked Toledo.
Thank you for the kind words, WOHO! I looked up that derecho event and it was a monster for northern Ohio. Here's a write up from the Storm Prediction Center that I found that I thought you'd also enjoy reading: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerech ... 69page.htm


I'm here for a good, hearty debate, to agree and disagree respectfully, and commiserate on the current state of terrestrial radio.

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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:05 pm

Looks like today's storms formed in the right location to put us in the heart of the trajectory of a robust MCS moving across Metro Detroit sometime around or shortly after midnight tonight. Super steep mid level lapse rates (8.6ºC/km at 19Z observed in Green Bay; 8.3ºC/km in Davenport, IA.) along with forcing from a low level jet should allow these storms to easily survive the track across Lake Michigan. Dewpoints in the mid 70s across the region should put a high floor to diurnal cooling, allowing for stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface in the storm's downdrafts as well.

Storm impacts locally should be heavy rains and localized strong wind gusts. The lack of directional shear, or helicity (spin), should limit the tornado threat. I think the primary storm mode should be a robust classic MCS with some pockets of strong winds.

These storms are cruising along at about 50 mph, so they'll be long gone by tomorrow. The rain should add more moisture into the atmosphere to make it feel miserably hot and humid -- and we'll have more robust wind shear as a stronger jet settles over lower Michigan. We'll have the helicity to support all hazards of severe weather, but uncertainty exists on where convection will initiate and how robust the instability will be tomorrow. Since we are expecting robust convection tonight, that'll make the mid level lapse rates a bit more shallow, making deep convection more dependent on surface heating, which has been an issue this year thanks to clouds/dust/smoke. However, if we do get robust instability, tomorrow's severe weather threat across the lower peninsula could be quite enhanced.


I'm here for a good, hearty debate, to agree and disagree respectfully, and commiserate on the current state of terrestrial radio.

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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:47 pm

I'm not that impressed with the ingredients in SE Michigan for tonight. The better forcing and jet energy is out west.

I agree with many HRRRs that show the MCS disorganizing as it moves into the heart of the metro.

Some areas could certainly see heavy rainfall, and a couple isolated severe wind gusts are possible.

I am more impressed by the SVR potential in SW and south central lower Michigan and also in a narrow zone along the surface warm front in the general proximity of M-115.

The portion of the MCS near Milwaukee seems to be collapsing to a degree. The cells from Manitowoc north and in Chicagoland especially seem more potent. There will likely be a ton of power outages in the Chicago area from these storms and considerable tree damage.

Tomorrow has better potential for multiple modes of SVR...completely agree. I also agree the size of the threat for tomorrow is difficult to gauge right now.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:58 pm

Would not surprise me to see a couple tornado warnings in NW lower or in Menominee County this evening or early overnight.



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