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I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:45 pm

At my house, it snowed portions of three consecutive days during the second week of MAY in 2020. I want to say it was the 11th through 13th.

One day in May last year, wet snowflakes mixed with light rain. It was also extremely chilly for three or four straight days (highs around 40 or 42 and nighttime lows in the mid to upper 20s). Mid to late month, it was very summer-like for about a week, and then right before Memorial Day, either the 26th or 27th, it rained all day and stayed in the 40s.

NOAA forecasted a warmer than average meteorological spring for all of lower Michigan this year, but particularly eastern Michigan. That forecast so far has proven to be a complete dud!



MasterB
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MasterB » Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:02 am

Yup has been dud weather .com also said a warm spring as well for Apr & a cool May. Spring has had ups and downs a rollercoaster this spring. I hope no more snow.


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Mega Hertz
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Mega Hertz » Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:22 am

It just won't get out of the 40s. Nice day here and there, but as soon as it gets too nice...boom! Rain. Snow. Wind. 43. Snow. Wind. Rain. 39. Wind. Rain. Snow. 47. Come on already.


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Bobbert
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Bobbert » Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:36 am

I just wish we'd stop getting high winds on my garbage day (Thursday). My yard is littered with strings of packing material from my "neighbor's" recycling container.



organman95
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by organman95 » Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:54 am

This is Michigan... where the weather changes about as quick as a toddler's mood sometimes...

A meteorologist once told me spring is the most difficult season to forecast in Michigan.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:24 pm

After this weekend's warmup, long range models are showing much below temps through the first week of May. From next Monday through May 5, we could have three or fewer days that reach 60 degrees.

Many days will see high temps 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Snow flurries are possible from next Tuesday night through next Wednesday night.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:11 am

My post from Wednesday still looks on track.

Even though the local TV outlets refuse to report it, scattered flurries or light snow showers still appear possible on a couple of occasions from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Best chances will be west and north of the heart of Metro Detroit.

I remain concerned about the possibility of a hard freeze for the outlying normally cold locations, especially Wednesday night.

One local newscast was forecasting low 50s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday when I watched last evening. Personally, I think they are full of shit. It's going to be stuck in the 40s most or all areas both days.



Mega Hertz
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Mega Hertz » Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:06 pm

I can't fuckin' stand it anymore, dude. Enough. Gimme my 60s already.


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bmw
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:42 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:45 pm
At my house, it snowed portions of three consecutive days during the second week of MAY in 2020. I want to say it was the 11th through 13th...
May 10th. Or at least that's the date on this photo that I took then...

Image



bmw
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:59 pm

For anybody curious, here is what I come up with after downloading 15 years of data from accuweather for my location in northern Michigan. What I was curious about was the daytime highs compared to average for the day. If the actual high for the day was exactly average or above average, I counted it as +1. If it was below average, I counted as -1.

After compiling the data for 2006-2021, here are the results:

Jan -8 (meaning 8 more days below average than at or above average)
Feb -46
Mar -30
Apr -53
May -15
June -14
July +16
Aug +12
Sep -14
Oct -5
Nov -13
Dec -6

My conclusion? February, March, and especially April have been WAY below normal over the past 15 years. That's a combined 129 more days below normal than at or above normal for just those 3 months in a 15-year period. June-Sept averaged out perfectly right to the day. Fall through early winter was slightly below average.

My question is, what is causing these lingering winters?



Mega Hertz
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Mega Hertz » Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:49 pm

Why do they linger? Because I fucking hate cold weather. By mid March, I'm ready to put the snow pants away. Construction isn't fun when you're fucking freezing 8 months out of the year.


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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:28 am

EXCELLENT info, bmw! Thanks for taking the time to compile that data.

I am not surprised to see April was the month with the most below normal days on a net basis. Last April was the only one I can remember that wasn't sharply below normal out of the past four (including this year).

What *did* surprise me was the overwhelming number of months where below normal days outnumbered above normal & normal days, as well as the stats for the month of February. I suspect the stats for my nearest reporting station for February would not be quite as lopsided.



bmw
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 9:39 am

One thing that really dragged February down was 2014 and 2015. In 2015, all 28 days were below average, and the year before, 23. So for those 2 winters, 51 out of 56 days were below average. That actually puts the other 13 years at +5 if you exclude that data.

Here's another fun fact - the winter of 2014 was especially brutal at night; here we saw 42 nights dip to zero or below zero. That's not a typo. Literally 42 nights. First one was on December 12 and the last one was a ridiculous negative 5 degrees on MARCH 26! The following year we had 27 nights do the same. Those 2 winters combined almost have to be the coldest back-to-back winters on record.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Apr 23, 2022 1:05 pm

Ah yes, the infamous polar vortex winters. :)

If those aren't the coldest on record, they are darn close.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by ProducerXM » Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:18 pm

Gentlemen, please. You’re straying from the narrative. Stick to the talking points, please. “The biggest existential threat is….”



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