Acceptable registrations in the queue through March 16 at 11:00a ET have now been activated. Enjoy! -M.W.

Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619

I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11871
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:58 pm

Impressive wind flare up over Highland Park and New Center right now.

More damage reports rolling in near Flint. Looks like probable tornado near Flushing.

WXYZ is doing a terrific job with its coverage. Mike Taylor is doing a really good job. Brian Abel doing a good job feeding him info from the news desk.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11871
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:22 pm

My heart bleeds for the folks who live near I94 in central and eastern Wayne County. They are receiving their third severe flooding event in about five weeks' time. Folks are still cleaning up from the last one.

Let's hope the water plants in Detroit were properly staffed this evening.

Flooding will be the main story for Wayne County. North of M-59, the pockets of tornadic and wind damage will be the main story (possibly along the M-5 corridor, too, in Oakland County).

The number of apparent tornadoes in eastern Michigan was greater than I expected (at least three occurred; I was expecting 0 to 2) as was the intensity of the rainfall.

The power outage numbers are noteworthy but not widespread as of now.



Deleted User 15555

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Deleted User 15555 » Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:51 pm

This severe weather outburst seemed to be correctly forecast.



jadednihilist
Posts: 313
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:31 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:00 pm

I got clobbered here in the New Boston area. I took video of some of the strong winds tearing off small limbs. The sky color was fairly ominous as well. Without power now, but running a gas generator so not too bad all things considered. This was quite the storm!


I'm here for a good, hearty debate, to agree and disagree respectfully, and commiserate on the current state of terrestrial radio.

User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11871
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:01 pm

Agreed (mostly) with BehindTheScenes. Slight risk was appropriate as severe gusts were isolated and low end.

The amount of tornadic activity was somewhat surprising. This morning, the NWS did introduce the mention of a low end brief tornado risk into its forecast graphics and technical discussion. All suspected tornadoes that occurred today were short track it appears, excluding the portion of the Port Austin / Port Hope tornado path that began over Saginaw Bay.

The Armada tornado fortunately fizzled very quickly once it moved east.

I just saw a report of a suspected very brief tornado near Oxbow Lake in White Lake Twp. That brings the likely tornado count to four now. There may be one or two more in the Saginaw Bay region.

Where folks whiffed (myself included) was the urban flash flooding threat. I was figuring 1 to 1.5 inch rain totals would be fairly common. Many areas instead wound up seeing 2 to 4 in the heart of the metro.

The general intensity and coverage of the storms in the immediate metro was somewhat more vigorous than I anticipated.



Deleted User 15555

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Deleted User 15555 » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:12 pm

Good analysis MW. I’m sure the flooding is getting old in Detroit.



jadednihilist
Posts: 313
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:31 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:13 pm

over 115,000 customers are without power now per DTE: https://outage.dteenergy.com/map

The highest concentration of outages is in northern Oakland County.


I'm here for a good, hearty debate, to agree and disagree respectfully, and commiserate on the current state of terrestrial radio.

User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11871
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:29 pm

I thought the NWS did a good job overall with warning issuances today.



MotorCityRadioFreak
Posts: 6408
Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:26 am
Location: Warren, MI

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:56 pm

They were on it for sure!


They/them, non-binary and proud.

Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.

MasterB
Posts: 1398
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:59 pm
Location: Kalamazoo

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MasterB » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:15 am

Sounds pretty bad from central Michigan, the thumb area to the Metro area got the nasty storms. Where and the west side of the state not much action with the storms it was largely partly to mostly cloudy most of the day with filter sun coming in and out from time to time sun came out when the Thunderstorm watch was issued a little after 3PM nothing happened only issued warning at around 5:55PM the wind never got to 58MPH only got to 55MPH Wood TV reported for the 3 counties that NWS issued the warnings for. Just rained with a few rumbles of thunder where I lived with no wind guest.


Go Pistons, Let's Go Redwings.

User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11871
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:31 am

Yup, the mode of storms you guys saw was closer to what I was envisioning for Metro Detroit. More mid level wind energy than I was expecting and greater instability gave the storms here more punch.

I did think the greatest threat would be in the Saginaw Bay, Thumb and I-69 regions, and indeed some widely scattered reports of very nasty weather occurred up that way.

At my house, not even as much as a leaf blew off the trees. The storm from earlier in the week was more substantial from a wind standpoint and even that one wasn't bad.

Almost all of the power outages are from West Bloomfield and Commerece Twp northward and westward. In those regions, especially White Lake, Highland, Holly and Springfield Twps, there are a ton of power outages. So, exurban and rural areas of Oakland County were hit hardest from that standpoint.

The worst of the weather, wind or tornado wise, intruded about an extra 20 to perhaps 40 miles south of where I thought the cutoff would be. That brought far northern Macomb and northern and western Oakland into the fold.

Because the storms were slow moving and had better structure than I anticipated, flooding rains were a widespread issue in the heart of Metro Detroit. Winds were a very minor issue until you get 30 or 40 miles NW of downtown.

The NWS forecast called for only a marginal risk of flooding, so they were caught by surprise, too. That's why no flash flood watch was ever issued, only warnings. A graphic on the WFO Pontiac home page pegged the flooding risk at only 5 to 10 percent for the region.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11871
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jul 25, 2021 7:31 am

NBC25 out of Clio has good pics of the Flushing area storm on its web site. Looks like tornado damage to me, albeit across a very short path. It appears a house lost its roof, and it landed one or two properties over.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11871
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:22 am

One might argue the NWS was a little tardy with the Oakland County warning issuances for tstorm and tornado but not by enough to where I would fault them.

For a good while, velocities over Oakland County were unimpressive. Going strictly off radar data, the storms appeared to be below severe criteria until they got close to M-59. One of the first flare ups I noticed was near Clarkston, and it was very small.

I hope the noisy readout near the radar site, likely caused by insects and birds, didn't cause warning issuance to be delayed. The White Lake tornado touched down extremely close to the forecast office! Couldn't have been more than a couple miles away.

I didn't see anything at all suggestive of an imminent tornado near White Lake strictly from radar, but then again, I didn't see every single radar scan. I suspect it was on the ground for less than five minutes.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11871
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:10 am

Possible tornado touchdown along Highland Park / Detroit border last night. Two cars reportedly were flipped over by the strong winds on M-10 near the Davison.

Rotation (albeit not a tight couplet) and strong winds were evident on radar at the time. I mentioned the flare up near Highland Park and New Center in real time.

A very strong downdraft could also be the culprit.



User avatar
moldyoldie
Posts: 1637
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:04 am
Location: On that thar' interweb jobber

Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by moldyoldie » Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:03 am

I'd like to echo the fine job Mike Taylor of WXYZ-7 did last night -- sane, levelheaded, to-the-point, understandable, and very thorough.
Kudos! :hat

It's probably fortunate they weren't pressured to return to the Olympics coverage.

My thoughts are with the Macomb County community of Armada which was hammered badly and sustained severe damage. Fortunately, no deaths or injuries have been reported.


"The primary purpose of a liberal education is to make one's mind a pleasant place in which to spend one's leisure."
- Sydney J. Harris

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic