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10”?

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
BKRPDM
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10”?

Post by BKRPDM » Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:31 pm

Andrew Humphrey’s map at 6:00 showed 10” of snow for parts of SE Michigan. Yet, we only have a Winter Weather Advisory. Do you think that this is typical weathercaster hype?



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Robert Faygo
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Re: 10”?

Post by Robert Faygo » Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:58 pm

Well, other forecast services are also bumping up the totals. I think it's only an advisory from the NWS since the length of time for that amount to fall is so long with a break in between the two pulses of accumulation. If the second wave winds up looking worse than expected as it gets closer to happening tomorrow night, the NWS will bump up the advisory.

Inaccuweather saying it's a 50/50 shot of a 6-10" snowfall as of now.

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Re: 10”?

Post by format this » Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:12 pm

Here near Paw Paw the forecast went from 2-4 on Friday, to 3-5 yesterday and 4-7 today. The storm either strengthened, moved more north, or both.


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Re: 10”?

Post by Frosty » Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:52 pm

Ah, shoot. I thought this was going to be about that Aerosmith song.



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Re: 10”?

Post by sfpcc » Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:34 pm

Or that Bo Derek/ Dudley Moore movie, (actually that film is kind of boring.)

On a semi related note was Bo Derek really a Ten? She's not unattractive but kind of bland and sterile.



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Re: 10”?

Post by Deleted User 14896 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:49 pm

I just drove from Owosso to Wayne.
All the roadside advisory signs are telling folks to prepare for a big storm tomorrow.



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Re: 10”?

Post by jadednihilist » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:24 am

This storm is probably going to end up stronger than anticipated. Right now there's heavy once-in-a-generation snow falling in Monterrey, Mexico and San Antonio, Texas.

A quick diagnostic for the upper level setup is looking at the approximate height of the 500 mb level (the level at which half of the atmospheric mass is below or above it). This is a function of average column temperature, so the colder the column, the lower the height. The loop I attached is the GFS predicted 500 mb heights + anomalies (in decameters) up until tonight's model initialization, which is essentially the closest approximation to the truth. What you'll notice is that the anomalies strengthen up through today's initialization, which suggests that models underestimated the amplitude of the trough driving the storm system.

Image

The main low will run approximately parallel to the height lines. The more amplified the trough, the farther west the track of the main surface low. The current track takes the main surface low through the OH/WV border. This is farther west than models have been hinting with a slightly weaker trough. Additionally, the stronger trough facilitates a stronger storm system via stronger jet dynamics (seen below at the 500 mb level valid at 10 pm Monday) and stronger moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico.

Image

Thus the combo of a stronger and deeper jet, low pressure system, and moisture transport + a closer storm track all points to a heavier snow storm for Metro Detroit. The current NWS forecast is at the upper end of Winter Weather Advisory criteria before the latest model data came in + observations in South Texas. I anticipate with this info, the Winter Weather Advisory will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning with 6 to 12 inches possible. The best chances for heaviest snow is still along and east of I-275/I-75.


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Re: 10”?

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:42 am

Very good analysis; thanks for sharing that! I saw on WeatherNation that today's predicted high temp in HOUSTON is only 23 degrees. That would be about a -45 degree departure from normal. This is a remarkable pattern, to say the least. The arctic air covers a massive chunk of the lower 48. Two of the last three times I visited central or eastern Texas in February, the high temps were in the upper 70s and low 80s!

The other thing to mention - the cold air. With temps in the teens during much of the upcoming storm, snow accumulation will be more efficient. (Should be a relatively powdery snow, although probably not quite as a powdery as the minor snow events over the past five days.)

Removing this morning's snow, I think the Monday Night - Tuesday system will drop a good 6 to 9 inches for SE Michigan and 4 to 7 inches for areas 20 miles either side of a Lansing to Owosso to Birch Run line. I think we will see a number of 9 or 10 inch totals in northern and western Ohio. This is going to be a crippling storm for places like Dayton and Cincinnati, each of whom should see about 8 inches. To put that into perspective, Cincinnati usually shuts down for just a few inches of snow.

Detroit has been sitting just outside of the core of the polar air for about a week; temps in Wisconsin and Iowa have been much colder than southern Michigan. Comes as no surprise that we are favorably positioned (for snow) from a storm track standpoint.

A Winter Storm Warning upgrade is very likely with the late morning forecast update:
Bottom line up front this morning -- Increasing confidence in a
period of significant snowfall across southeast Michigan tonight.
After much in-house discussion regarding headlines, electing to hold
firm with the current long duration advisory just in the near term
here /ie: through the morning commute/ to allow this ongoing light
accumulating snow to gradually vacate. A definitive 6 to 9 hour
window emerges into the afternoon between snowfall events, affording
sufficient diurnal recovery time as witnessed in recent low end
events seen within this pattern. This allows for a refocus of
headlines onto the tonight period. Tentative plan will be to shift
gears sometime mid morning - outlooking a corridor from
Livingston/Genesee county and the eastern thumb southward for a
winter storm warning centered 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
morning. 6 to 9 inches expected within this corridor with the higher
amounts focused with southward extent. Advisory conditions remain
across the Saginaw valley/Shiawassee county, with 2 to 5 inches
expected.



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Re: 10”?

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:35 am

MWmetalhead wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:42 am
Very good analysis; thanks for sharing that! I saw on WeatherNation that today's predicted high temp in HOUSTON is only 23 degrees. That would be about a -45 degree departure from normal. This is a remarkable pattern, to say the least. The arctic air covers a massive chunk of the lower 48. Two of the last three times I visited central or eastern Texas in February, the high temps were in the upper 70s and low 80s!

The other thing to mention - the cold air. With temps in the teens during much of the upcoming storm, snow accumulation will be more efficient. (Should be a relatively powdery snow, although probably not quite as a powdery as the minor snow events over the past five days.)

Removing this morning's snow, I think the Monday Night - Tuesday system will drop a good 6 to 9 inches for SE Michigan and 4 to 7 inches for areas 20 miles either side of a Lansing to Owosso to Birch Run line. I think we will see a number of 9 or 10 inch totals in northern and western Ohio. This is going to be a crippling storm for places like Dayton and Cincinnati, each of whom should see about 8 inches. To put that into perspective, Cincinnati usually shuts down for just a few inches of snow.

Detroit has been sitting just outside of the core of the polar air for about a week; temps in Wisconsin and Iowa have been much colder than southern Michigan. Comes as no surprise that we are favorably positioned (for snow) from a storm track standpoint.

A Winter Storm Warning upgrade is very likely with the late morning forecast update:
Bottom line up front this morning -- Increasing confidence in a
period of significant snowfall across southeast Michigan tonight.
After much in-house discussion regarding headlines, electing to hold
firm with the current long duration advisory just in the near term
here /ie: through the morning commute/ to allow this ongoing light
accumulating snow to gradually vacate. A definitive 6 to 9 hour
window emerges into the afternoon between snowfall events, affording
sufficient diurnal recovery time as witnessed in recent low end
events seen within this pattern. This allows for a refocus of
headlines onto the tonight period. Tentative plan will be to shift
gears sometime mid morning - outlooking a corridor from
Livingston/Genesee county and the eastern thumb southward for a
winter storm warning centered 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
morning. 6 to 9 inches expected within this corridor with the higher
amounts focused with southward extent. Advisory conditions remain
across the Saginaw valley/Shiawassee county, with 2 to 5 inches
expected.
They are doing rolling blackouts in Houston. The grid can't keep with the electrical demand being that their gas furnaces are seldom used and often discovered to be broken when actually needed. Insulation in their walls and pipes is all more poorly done. The ice is what is really hurting them. It is 17 degrees right now in Humble. My aunts and cousin live there and moved after leaving here in 2010. Ice is ice as so many of us were crippled by that big ice storm 7 years ago.


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Re: 10”?

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:36 am

I was down in Houston in early January 2016 for a week, and their temps were routinely between 60-70 and only going as low as 40 at night.


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Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
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Re: 10”?

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:14 am

I think we're going to see a lot of (bad) news out of Texas, especially Houston and perhaps Austin, MCRF.

You are 100% right. There are about 2.5 million power outages in the state of Texas right now. It's going to get down to 10 degrees in downtown Houston (!!!) tonight. Today is the coldest February day in 122 years for Houston. (December 23, 1989 was even chillier, for those wondering why I qualified by the above statement by saying "coldest February day".)

The grid definitely cannot keep up, as I suspect many folks are relying on portable heaters that run on electricity.

I just looked at the traffic cameras from ABC 13; all major freeways are closed to motorists. They all have snow and ice covering them.

Most areas around Austin, TX have seen at least a half foot of snow since late yesterday; incredible stuff. It is 9 degrees at Austin - Bergstrom International Airport right now. That matches the current temperature in Pontiac and is 3 degrees colder than DTW!

San Antonio - with clear skies - is at 10 above zero. Most of the San Antonio metro saw at least 3 inches of snow last night.



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Re: 10”?

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:26 am

Tonight's low temperature will probably be the third or fourth lowest recorded low temperature in recorded weather history for downtown Houston.



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Re: 10”?

Post by Robert Faygo » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:29 am

Good thing no one will be going anywhere with their electric cars in Texas and they won't need to plug in to charge them. /s


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Re: 10”?

Post by ftballfan » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:05 am

I was just watching KTRK online and they had a couple of their producers in a truck on a Houston freeway. They were the only car on the road on a freeway that's normally extremely busy.

AccuWeather just said Houston may be lucky to hit 20 today. Current temperature 17 degrees with wind chill of 1 above (and wind chills below zero in the northern and western suburbs)



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Re: 10”?

Post by jadednihilist » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:13 am

MWmetalhead wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:14 am
I think we're going to see a lot of (bad) news out of Texas, especially Houston and perhaps Austin, MCRF.

You are 100% right. There are about 2.5 million power outages in the state of Texas right now. It's going to get down to 10 degrees in downtown Houston (!!!) tonight. Today is the coldest February day in 122 years for Houston. (December 23, 1989 was even chillier, for those wondering why I qualified by the above statement by saying "coldest February day".)

The grid definitely cannot keep up, as I suspect many folks are relying on portable heaters that run on electricity.

I just looked at the traffic cameras from ABC 13; all major freeways are closed to motorists. They all have snow and ice covering them.

Most areas around Austin, TX have seen at least a half foot of snow since late yesterday; incredible stuff. It is 9 degrees at Austin - Bergstrom International Airport right now. That matches the current temperature in Pontiac and is 3 degrees colder than DTW!

San Antonio - with clear skies - is at 10 above zero. Most of the San Antonio metro saw at least 3 inches of snow last night.
Pretty crazy video on Twitter:
- Monterrey, Mexico: https://twitter.com/iliving_soul/status ... 68832?s=21
- Del Rio, Texas: https://twitter.com/kellyjamestv/status ... 41313?s=21
- San Antonio: https://twitter.com/TheBradSowder/statu ... 1529495553
- Austin: https://twitter.com/ToriLarnedtv/status ... 6431944706


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