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10”?

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
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MWmetalhead
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Re: 10”?

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:48 am

Wild stuff in Monterrey for sure.

SE Michigan, as expected, has been upgraded to a winter storm warning starting 6p tonight.

I'm still liking my earlier numbers.

This is going to be a noteworthy storm for us and a very significant storm for Ohio and southern Ontario.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: 10”?

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:54 am

I must say - for a Friday evening forecast - WDIV looks to have done a very impressive job!

I believe those model runs and snow totals were for Sunday night through Tuesday night cumulatively. Many areas should indeed be in the 8 to 10 inch range for total snow over that period.



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Ben Zonia
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Re: 10”?

Post by Ben Zonia » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:15 am

They have one of these at the North Pole like on Get Smart "Ice Station Siegfried", blowing all the cold air South

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jadednihilist
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Re: 10”?

Post by jadednihilist » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:47 pm

We are looking increasingly prime for a direct hit from this storm in Metro Detroit. Here's the latest radar loop (through 4:45 pm):

SPC Mesoanalysis shows decent 700 mb frontogenesis just to our south, which should push into our area and add enhanced lift for more efficient precip production.

The storm continues to track west of the model guidance. The 850 mb low is expected to track across northeast Ohio, which places our area in the textbook perfect position (~100 mi NW of the 850 mb low) for the heaviest snow swath. Double digit snowfalls overnight are definitely in play for us tonight.

Images: https://imgur.com/a/6WR9POJ


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Re: 10”?

Post by Rate This » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:38 pm

jadednihilist wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:47 pm
We are looking increasingly prime for a direct hit from this storm in Metro Detroit. Here's the latest radar loop (through 4:45 pm):

SPC Mesoanalysis shows decent 700 mb frontogenesis just to our south, which should push into our area and add enhanced lift for more efficient precip production.

The storm continues to track west of the model guidance. The 850 mb low is expected to track across northeast Ohio, which places our area in the textbook perfect position (~100 mi NW of the 850 mb low) for the heaviest snow swath. Double digit snowfalls overnight are definitely in play for us tonight.

Images: https://imgur.com/a/6WR9POJ
So are we starting to feel some increasing confidence in the 6-10” numbers being undercooked?



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Re: 10”?

Post by jadednihilist » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:43 pm

I would say 6-10" is a lock, with isolated locations seeing 10" a real possibility. It's difficult to resolve where the heaviest bands will set up until they actually do, but Metro Detroit is definitely in play for the jackpots.


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Re: 10”?

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:10 pm

I think some Ohio locations and SW Ontario will see more snow than us, but it won't be a big difference.



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Re: 10”?

Post by Rate This » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:12 pm

I’m going with about 8.5” for my house in Wayne (the city).



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Dr. Sandi
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Re: 10”?

Post by Dr. Sandi » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:24 pm

One big reason I fled Michigan years ago, other than viable paying jobs, was what the whole of North America seems to be enjoying right now.

Here in metro Portland, we're just digging out of a late season snow and ice storm. Snow, I can live with, but the freezing rain is murder. It collects on trees and brings down H*** branches and whole trees across power lines. Since it doesn't happen often, they don't thin out every year like in Michigan. So we have about 250 thousands homes and businesses without electricity, mostly because of the freezing rain. And that really sux.

On the bright side, the drivers here are so green that most of them just stayed home over the weekend. And that's a good thing.
More rain and temps around 40 are quickly clearing up what God hath wrought.


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Re: 10”?

Post by Robert Faygo » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:30 pm

Rate This wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:12 pm
I’m going with about 8.5” for my house in Wayne (the city).
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Re: 10”?

Post by BKRPDM » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:50 pm

So, as of 8:45pm, TWC shows 1-3” predicted for tonight (for Novi)....down from 5-8” earlier.

Then switched back to 3-5” a few minutes later.



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Re: 10”?

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:22 pm

Between yesterday and today, we definitely have a snowfall of 6 inches and counting here in Warren.


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Re: 10”?

Post by jadednihilist » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:12 pm

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/af ... 2102160249

Latest forecast discussion from White Lake says that the snow will pick up in intensity after midnight. I agree with that. Right now we're on the edge of the dry slot.

"Stellar dendrites" are on the way


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Re: 10”?

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:25 am

The award for worst forecast clearly goes to WXYZ's Dave Rexroth. Not a surprise.

He was predicting widespread 10"+ totals along the Gratiot Rd. and Fort St. corridors (and 5 - 10 miles westward) on yesterday's evening newscasts. He was predicting 8 to 10 inches for most of Metro Detroit. Bear in mind these were all Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon projections. He also was predicting much lower totals to the far northwest.

What actually happened?
- The big range (increase) in totals as one moves from west to east didn't happen.
- I think some of the most impressive totals may actually come from the Lansing and Jackson areas.
- I don't believe anyone in SE Michigan wound up with 10 inches of snow.
- Totals in the 5 to 7 inch range will be common for Metro Detroit (low end of my forecast; I said 6 to 9). Yup, some areas will only report 5 inches. At my house, where it is still snowing moderately, there is only four inches of fresh accumulation since Noon yesterday. Most of the snow should be finished by 8AM, after which point light snow showers and flurries will prevail.
- I think the areas most likely to report 8" might be back toward US-127.

There was a very heavy plume of snow that tracked over Cleveland into southern Ontario last night. I am curious how much snow places such as Kitchener, Hamilton and Cleveland received. I suspect the 10 to 12 inch projections over those locales will materialize as forecasted.

Chicago proper and its suburbs received INSANE snow totals yesterday. 10 to 14 inch totals are common. Areas near Midway Airport now have 20 to 26 INCHES of snow depth on the ground!!

Keep an eye on this map as the morning progresses (most of the snow totals for SE Michigan right now - 6:30a ET - are stale):

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=dtx



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Re: 10”?

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:15 am

We got at least 8" of snow here, if not more.


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Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.

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