Ben Bailey cannot forecast worth a shit!!!

[MWmetalhead]

When is WDIV going to replace Chicken Little with someone competent?

For a second straight weekend, a predicted 5 to 7 inch snowfall across the Ohio border counties turned out to be a very minor event.

The lake effect machine he predicted to drop several inches of snow in a good chunk of SE MI on Monday thru Tuesday morning is also looking like a dud of a forecast.

WXYZ also got the forecast wrong but not by as wide of a margin. And they were never a believer in a significant lake effect event like Ben was.

[TC Shuts Up]

I would wait until Monday to see how much snow falls. It may be tracking further south. Hopefully, there will be so much snow it will shut down Washington, DC and cause the stupid impeachment trial to be cancelled. That is what is called "karma".

[musicfan]

I remember when snowfall projections over six inches were considered to be Winter Storms. Nowadays, it seems that one to two inch forecasts are always called Winter Storms (thus, it is the first lead in on the news, usually presented as "breaking news" over other stories such as the pandemic, violence, etc.). These TVcasters rely on US computer models, European models and even Victoria Secret models to predict weather as far out as ten days. Ridiculous. When a predicted storm misses the mark (and this season...most have), the TVcasters merely sweep them under the rug with their "stock" excuses (dryer air masses, movement that the computer models did not foresee). I am old enough to remember the Sonny Eliot days with his chalkboard. His simple presentations were fairly accurate. I once had the chance to see Hodak speak at a dinner banquet, and he mentioned that he could be certain about predicting weather for 48 hours (maybe even 72 hours). Beyond that, its a roll of the dice. He also mentioned that one of his tools beyond the computer model was to phone other reporting stations. i.e., if a front was approaching form the West, he'd call Grand Rapids, Milwaukee, St. Louis, etc., in order to confirm their conditions and he would consider their input as part of his 48-72 hour forecast. This morning...I got Andrew Humphrey downplaying the snow impact (which he referred to as "slippery forecast" last night), and he seemed to be more concerned about offering Public Service Announcements ("remember to mask up", "make sure that your wipers are clean and that you have plenty of washer fluid", "watch out for your pets", "make sure that you leave plenty of distance between you and the snow plow in front of you", "hello to friends and family in blah blah blah city"). I swear, the guy thinks that the average viewer has never experienced winter weather...Just stick to the freakin' weather and leave the commons sense to us.

[Mega Hertz]

I remember when snowfall projections over six inches were considered to be Winter Storms. Nowadays, it seems that one to two inch forecasts are always called Winter Storms (thus, it is the first lead in on the news, usually presented as "breaking news" over other stories such as the pandemic, violence, etc.). These TVcasters rely on US computer models, European models and even Victoria Secret models to predict weather as far out as ten days. Ridiculous. When a predicted storm misses the mark (and this season...most have), the TVcasters merely sweep them under the rug with their "stock" excuses (dryer air masses, movement that the computer models did not foresee). I am old enough to remember the Sonny Eliot days with his chalkboard. His simple presentations were fairly accurate. I once had the chance to see Hodak speak at a dinner banquet, and he mentioned that he could be certain about predicting weather for 48 hours (maybe even 72 hours). Beyond that, its a roll of the dice. He also mentioned that one of his tools beyond the computer model was to phone other reporting stations. i.e., if a front was approaching form the West, he'd call Grand Rapids, Milwaukee, St. Louis, etc., in order to confirm their conditions and he would consider their input as part of his 48-72 hour forecast. This morning...I got Andrew Humphrey downplaying the snow impact (which he referred to as "slippery forecast" last night), and he seemed to be more concerned about offering Public Service Announcements ("remember to mask up", "make sure that your wipers are clean and that you have plenty of washer fluid", "watch out for your pets", "make sure that you leave plenty of distance between you and the snow plow in front of you", "hello to friends and family in blah blah blah city"). I swear, the guy thinks that the average viewer has never experienced winter weather...Just stick to the freakin' weather and leave the commons sense to us.

What worries me about your first point is the schools. Granted, we have a lot of dirt and back roads around here, so theoretically, even 2 inches, falling at just the right time, could conceivably close schools.

That being said, I grew up going to Utica Community Schools. It would take upwards of a FOOT of snow to close us down. Same with Van Dyke Public Schools. The rumor was that if the superintendent could get out of her driveway, then schools were open. What the hell did she drive, a Humvee???

[windsor]

WDIV needs to bring Chuck back out of retirement........

[windsor]

When is WDIV going to replace Chicken Little with someone competent?

For a second straight weekend, a predicted 5 to 7 inch snowfall across the Ohio border counties turned out to be a very minor event.

The lake effect machine he predicted to drop several inches of snow in a good chunk of SE MI on Monday thru Tuesday morning is also looking like a dud of a forecast.

WXYZ also got the forecast wrong but not by as wide of a margin. And they were never a believer in a significant lake effect event like Ben was.

But it kept the fear factor up thus the ratings for Loco4.

For acurracy I like Rexroth or Jay on WTVG......

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

WDIV needs to bring Chuck back out of retirement........

Chuck doesn't want to come out of retirement. Too busy doing motivational speaking gigs for a lot of money.

[windsor]

WDIV needs to bring Chuck back out of retirement........

Chuck doesn't want to come out of retirement. Too busy doing motivational speaking gigs for a lot of money.

Good for him, Chuck was my first choice for WX back in the day.

[musicfan]

Mega Hertz...I see your point regarding the Northern Suburbs. I grew up in Warren (Lincoln High School), and I think that they only cancelled classes one, or two days during my mid/high school years. I lived in Oxford for over twenty years and their back roads would be of concern with lesser snowfalls...thus, more cancellations. Here in Greensboro, NC. they are predicting a mix along with an inch of snow...cancellations are high. Obviously, the road commissions are not equipped to handle winter weather as back home in Michigan. To keep in touch with Detroit, I live stream the news (usually Local 4). Stay safe.

[Mega Hertz]

Mega Hertz...I see your point regarding the Northern Suburbs. I grew up in Warren (Lincoln High School), and I think that they only cancelled classes one, or two days during my mid/high school years. I lived in Oxford for over twenty years and their back roads would be of concern with lesser snowfalls...thus, more cancellations. Here in Greensboro, NC. they are predicting a mix along with an inch of snow...cancellations are high. Obviously, the road commissions are not equipped to handle winter weather as back home in Michigan. To keep in touch with Detroit, I live stream the news (usually Local 4). Stay safe.

Working in construction this time of year makes it hard, too. I need to have the closest forecast possible. I plan for all of it. So when they call for 5-7, I plan on calling off to stay with the kids and getting replacements for work. Even a couple inches of snow makes my work difficult, so I get it. Air temperature is my biggest thing. They tell me it's gonna be 35 and it only turns out to be 27 and that fucks my day up, too.

I quote Bernie Mac: "I don't believe shit until shit happens"

[Deleted User 14896]

My school district was closed a couple days last year because it was deemed to be too cold for the kids to be out. No snow or terrible roads. Just too cold to walk. I can triple dog guarantee that never happened when I was in school.

[jsf]

I think the best one back in the day when Bill Bonds say's to Jerry Hodak " I would have been here sooner but I had to shovel 6 ins. of partly cloudy off my drive".

[Trophyhead]

My pet peeve with forecasters and/or meteorologists is the overuse of the phrase "storm."

Is a weather system, in Winter, as the calendar or moon prescribes that brings in two to three inches of snow a "Storm?" It's an "event," to my way of thinking. Save the alarm-evoking phrases for the appropriate situation, don't parrot us to death indicating that every wintry situation is a cataclysm.

Off the box, I go, now.

[SolidGoldDancers]

WDIV needs to bring Chuck back out of retirement........

Chuck's forecasts were largely written by Paul Gross.

[BKRPDM]

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the weather this weekend and early next week, as the next polar vortex has been predicted. Some models show lows in the -9° range early next week.

A few weeks back, the Weather Channel predicted February to be above normal in temps, and March to be much above normal in temps (for MI). Now NOAA and AccuWeather are predicting below average temps here until well into mid-February.