Major snowstorm brewing

[MWmetalhead]

Potentially good news: both major models in the latest run have shifted the very heavy totals farther south.

The Euro still is painting 10+ inches along I-94 but totals taper quickly north. The GFS has more aggressively pushed heavy totals south, keeping all the double digit totals south of the state line, and showing little in the way of accumulation along I-69.

[Mega Hertz]

So fucking depressing. I get we live in Michigan but this shit is just extreme. It's just so....unproductive. A fucking FOOT of snow? Kiss the fattest part of my ass.

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Potentially good news: both major models in the latest run have shifted the very heavy totals farther south.

The Euro still is painting 10+ inches along I-94 but totals taper quickly north. The GFS has more aggressively pushed heavy totals south, keeping all the double digit totals south of the state line, and showing little in the way of accumulation along I-69.

Updated winter storm watch says 8-16 now:
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to
16 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan along and south of the
I-69 corridor including Sanilac County.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning and evening commute on both
Wednesday and Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change over to snow and increase
in coverage Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. A
prolonged period of snowfall will then persist Wednesday and
Thursday. Gusty winds from the north on Thursday will also
contribute to some blowing of snow.

[MWmetalhead]

Interesting. My description of the latest model data is based on forecast maps I saw on The Weather Channel an hour ago.

The AccuWeather forecaster on WWJ is calling for a general range of 12 to 18 inches in the heart of Metro Detroit.

I think my forecast ranges from this morning still look good. I'm keeping those numbers right where they are at.

[Marcus]

Here is the size of the Watch areas so far.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... ge=0&tor=0

https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=son

[MWmetalhead]

GFS graphic on The Weather Channel says much of Metro Detroit will receive only 3 to 5 inches or 5 to 8 inches. It paints the bullseye from Cleveland to Lima for 12+ plus totals. That model run covers Wednesday morning to Saturday morning.

[bmw]

Look at the poor east coast. Runs up until yesterday were showing snow relegated mostly to the north.



Now look

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Interesting. My description of the latest model data is based on forecast maps I saw on The Weather Channel an hour ago.

The AccuWeather forecaster on WWJ is calling for a general range of 12 to 18 inches in the heart of Metro Detroit.

I think my forecast ranges from this morning still look good. I'm keeping those numbers right where they are at.

For context the original watch was issued at 350am this morning calling for 8-14 and this revision for 8-16 is 350pm this afternoon. Will be interesting to see the next revision or when it gets converted to a warning.

[Colonel Flagg]

So fucking depressing. I get we live in Michigan but this shit is just extreme. It's just so....unproductive. A fucking FOOT of snow? Kiss the fattest part of my ass.

Mega, be thankful you weren't around in the '60's and '70's.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I guess I am very happy that we got new roofs put in over here in 2020.

I meant that people die from power outages and such. Being trapped with the power out is one of my worst fears.

How would this be different than the last two years for you?

If you had paid attention, you would know that I have a part time job now.

As far as the storm, we had a similar storm January 2nd 2000. We also had 16 inches in 2015 according to WDIV. The good thing is that this storm has been predicted since last Wesnesday. We also are going to have much of the existing snow melt away tomorrow. No future storms in the forecast as of now. I can live with a foot of snow. Getting food tomorrow. It will be okay.

[Willie108]

It's Michigan....we know how to deal it it.

[MWmetalhead]

For those who don't like the snow (like me) here is a relatively optimistic forecast from News 8 in Grand Rapids:

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/tracking ... uary-2022/

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For those who don't like the snow (like me) here is a relatively optimistic forecast from News 8 in Grand Rapids:

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/tracking ... uary-2022/

NWS’s current thinking:

Benign weather to start the work week with broad high pressure
exiting to New England/southern Quebec this afternoon, opening the
door for increasing southeasterly wind locally as height rises
commence this evening. Warm advection then begins in earnest late
tonight thus expect a slightly milder night with lows tomorrow
morning in the upper teens to lower 20s under a thickening shield of
high clouds moving in late. A notable dry layer was observed between
700 and 850mb in the 12z DTX sounding which models maintain
overnight with a lack of better moisture advection and lift in this
layer - dry conditions prevail through tonight.

The brief warming trend peaks Tuesday with low-level wind turning
more from the south and southwest after the midlevel ridge axis
passes overhead. This advects in increasing moisture along with much
milder temps - 925mb temps peak around 0 to 5C, though snow cover
and cold ground will limit the degree of warming at the surface.
Still, looking at highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s which will be
the first temps above freezing since January 19. Dry conditions
continue early with clouds lowering through the day as top-down
saturation ensues amidst gentle isentropic ascent. Height falls
spread in during the afternoon with ample saturation achieved by
then to allow for scattered light rain showers to develop ahead of
the inbound cold front. Can`t rule out some slick spots at the onset
Tuesday afternoon/evening, mainly across any back roads that remain
snow covered when the rain starts. Rain coverage and intensity edges
upward Tuesday night as the front eases in from the west while Gulf
moisture drawn into the region increases PWATs to around 0.75 inches
/exceeding the 95th climatological percentile this time of year/.
Most of Southeast Michigan will see several hours of rain Tuesday
evening and night with this anomalous moisture and increasing
ascent, but the corridor of QPF may be narrow enough and far enough
southeast that the Tri-Cities area only sees a brief period of light
showers/sprinkles before snow begins after midnight.

The cold front advances across the area overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, allowing for a changeover from rain to snow from
northwest to southeast. Deep layer isentropic ascent focuses
directly over the central and southern CWA through this period as a
jet streak parks over the UP and Lake Superior and ramps up to about
120-130 kt at 300mb, adding to synoptic support for ascent. Abundant
moisture will continue to be fed in from the southwest with 850-
700mb specific humidities progged at around 3-4 g/kg over most of
the CWA Wednesday morning. Changeover to snow in the Metro Detroit
area south to the Ohio border is trending slightly earlier per
locally weighted ptype probabilities - now looking to occur just
before or right about dawn. Snow is then likely to persist there in
varying intensities over the following 48 hours. Heavier, wet snow
is favored at the onset with rates of a half inch or more per hour
supported by model guidance, even with snow:liquid ratios coming in
below 10:1 early on. SLRs will be higher to the north and west of
Metro Detroit where deeper cold air resides, but moisture and lift
do look to occur over a shallower depth which will keep QPF
relatively lower.

Snowfall continues across all of Southeast Michigan through the day
on Wednesday as colder air settles in behind the front, gradually
increasing SLRs with time. Forcing via the jet streak entrance
region and system relative isentropic ascent remain active through
this time with waves of fgen riding along the elevated frontal slope
to produce relatively consistent snowfall. Widespread snowfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches will be possible by Wednesday evening along
and south of the I-69 corridor with 1 to 4 inches across the Tri-
Cities and northern Thumb. Wednesday night will fall between greater
forcing regimes as the front sags a bit farther south and east, but
still expect snowfall rates of at least a tenth or two of an inch
per hour to carry through most of the night with favorable omega
remaining overhead.

Another period of height falls commences Thursday which helps force
the cold front farther south and east. Overrunning snowfall
continues mainly south of the I-69 corridor as an 850mb low develops
and tracks along the front through the upper Ohio Valley. This
system keeps deformation and fgen forcing directly over the forecast
area with another solid round of accumulating lower density snowfall
likely Thursday into Thursday evening. High confidence in continued
snow through Thursday evening across the Metro Detroit corridor and
areas south, but lower confidence in areas to the north and west
including Flint, Saginaw, and the Thumb as there remains some model
discrepancies regarding end times. Will hold on to chance PoPs for
these areas.

The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for much of Southeast
Michigan from Wednesday morning to Thursday evening, for areas along
and south of the I-69 corridor as well as Sanilac County. Event
total snowfall amounts ranging from 8 to 16 inches are possible by
Thursday evening with the highest amounts likely occurring
along/south of I-94. Do not currently expect the heavier axis of
snow to shift north based on model trends the past few days, so will
keep the original watch area intact. 2 to 5 inches will be possible
north of the current watch area. The Wednesday and Thursday morning
and evening commutes are likely to be impacted by this prolonged
system.

I can read spring-summer-fall EFO’s but winter ones I’m out of my element. Maybe this makes sense to one of you guys.

[Mega Hertz]

Let's all just go outside with giant fans and push the air away from us. Worth a try? Right? I'm willing to try anything at this point.

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Let's all just go outside with giant fans and push the air away from us. Worth a try? Right? I'm willing to try anything at this point.

Due to supply issues the only fans available come from South America. Sorry.