Thu. night - Saturday storm system

[MWmetalhead]

WXYZ is now forecasting only 2 to 4 inches for most of Metro Detroit. I disagree with that forecast quite strongly. Dave Rexroth has a crappy track record when it comes to snowfall forecasting.

WDIV is forecasting 5 to 9 inches for most of Metro Detroit, with Ann Arbor and Flint around 10 inches. Areas downriver are in the 4 to 6 inch range.

I think my numbers from this morning still look very good. I am not making a single change to my predictions from this morning. There is a LOT of moisture moving this way from Indiana and wet bulb readings are dropping quickly. My predictions are closer to those of WDIV than those of WXYZ with the exception of downriver and eastern Monroe County.

[TC Talks]

Traverse City

6" tonight
9" Friday
5" Fri night
2" Saturday



Here is the Pride forecast

[MWmetalhead]

WOOD TV from GR is predicting 6 to 10 inches for areas south of 696 and 8 to 14 inches along and north of 696.

[Marcus]

This video is long, but it explains the storm quite well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXiC4cHCbkg

AVOID THE ROADS INTO HAMILTON, ONTARIO TOMORROW MORNING. The flash freeze will hit them close to the morning rush hour and there is a winding road from the escarpment down into the city. That flash freeze is expected to hit Detroit before daylight, and damaging winds may follow that.

[radioandtventhusiast]

WTVG in Toledo is saying 2 to 4 for the city.

[Mega Hertz]

Let me just go on record and say "fuck this shit".

Carry on.

[tapeisrolling]

I don't think it will be too bad because..... Nobody is parked on an overpass with live reports! Like the old days....

[bmw]

Been raining in Tawas City for 2 hours. Weather Channel says current condition here is "SNOW." Uh, yeah.....not a snow flake to be seen anywhere in the area.

[TC Talks]

The snow started in TC as of 7p

[Turkeytop]

Nothing yet here in London, ON. But one of our local weather people said tomorrow will be like a hurricane with snow.

[Musicrewired]

WOOD-TV is calling this "the worst storm in many years" for its viewing area. That is a remarkable statement considering many highly populated areas of West Michigan received 18 to 24 inches of snow over 2 to 3 days just ~40 days ago!

And I don't recall that snowfall getting the big run-up this one has, either. 3 consecutive days of 7"+ snowfall hadn't been recorded before, it was claimed afterwards.

GR has had over 43" of snow this season, and almost 15" this month, both numbers as of earlier today prior to the onset of the latest "Snowmageddon".

As always, it gives the TV news something to cover, and it made the pre-Christmas crush in the stores that much more pronounced with the timing of this snow event, which is all I'll think of it as. Sure, the wind adds to it, as does the cold, but the snow is what ties up the traffic and impedes normal activities.

[Rate This]

I sincerely believe this is going to be an absolute dud.

[MWmetalhead]

Well, I gotta hand it to the folks who predicted lower totals for Metro Detroit. The rain held on for several more hours than I anticipated. The temp here (14 Mile and Woodward area) is still 38 degrees!

At 6p, it was actually one degree cooler!

The heavy precip plume has been all rain here.

There is some snow beginning to mix in south of Detroit, but the rain-snow line is roughly along to just east of US 23 at the moment. That line has only moved about 25 miles eastward since 6PM.

I do think an hour or two of moderate to heavy snow will affect Metro Detroit in the pre dawn hours, but tomorrow's activity should be mostly on the light side.

My revised totals:
- Saginaw, Flint, Bad Axe, Howell, Lansing and Jackson: 5 to 8 inches
- Ann Arbor, Holly, Lapeer and Sandusky: 3 to 6 inches
- Canton, Livonia, Royal Oak, Pontiac, Warren, Utica, Memphis, west side of Detroit, Monroe County: 2 to 4 inches.
- East side of Detroit, Grosse Pointe, St. Clair Shores, New Baltimore, Port Huron: 1 to 3 inches.

Areas east of Sarnia, ON and perhaps areas east and southeast of Lake St. Clair (Chatham) still stand to get appreciable lake effect snow Friday.

Wind forecast for tomorrow is pretty much on track. I think many areas in Metro Detroit will see gusts near or above 50 mph.

Edit - Kim Adams on Loco 4 hasn't revised her snowfall projections downward enough, in my opinion. She's shaved only a couple inches from most of her 5p & 6p numbers.

It is 20 degrees colder in Grand Rapids and 15 degrees colder in Lansing than at my house right now.

[MWmetalhead]

Rain snow line is gaining eastward momentum now. It's now to 275. So, it's moved 15 miles in the last 30 minutes.

[Rate This]

Rain snow line is gaining eastward momentum now. It's now to 275. So, it's moved 15 miles in the last 30 minutes.

The end of that line isn’t far behind and then there’s absolutely no precipitation all the way back to Omaha.

I would be shocked if we get a dusting at this rate in western Wayne county.

I’m supposed to believe the sky is falling when NWS’s “expert forecast opinion” was saying the system was drier and drier with each model run. So I get two days off of work paid… that’s ok but it won’t be a blizzard.