Ohio - is it a bellwether anymore?

[bmw]

Ok Matt, which do you think is more likely to happen, in reality? 40 percent of Republicans (who would otherwise vote and vote for the Republican nominee) not voting for Trump, or that number being in the single digits? Splitting the difference would be 25, and I would wager you a substantial amount of money that it will be under that.

You gonna bother to explain away my point?

There's nothing to explain. For 25% of Republicans, Trump is not their first choice. So what? I do agree that the 3% seems overly optimistic, but I think in the realm of 7 to 9 percent refusing to vote for him seems possible - certainly much more likely than 40%.

[zzand]

I will stick with double digit numbers not voting for him. You rely on polls way too much and they have proven to be wrong too often to put that much faith in them. He isn't doing anything to sway undecided, independent and anti Trump Republicans to vote for him. He has a big money issue as well. The Biden campaign has money to spare in the run up while Trump is running a little short of campaign funds and with his legal issues and now a court ordered babysitter having to approve every financial move he can't use what money he has to shore up that short fall. Too many things are going wrong for him.

[bmw]

There's a big difference between low double digits and 40 percent. You claimed 40 percent.

You claim I rely too much on the polls. What is the basis for the arbitrary number you came up with? You think 100% of the people who didn't vote for Trump in the primaries won't vote for him in the general either? What is the basis for such a bold prediction?

[Rate This]

There's a big difference between low double digits and 40 percent. You claimed 40 percent.

You claim I rely too much on the polls. What is the basis for the arbitrary number you came up with? You think 100% of the people who didn't vote for Trump in the primaries won't vote for him in the general either? What is the basis for such a bold prediction?

The fact that they are VOTING FOR CANDIDATES THAT DROPPED OUT AFTER HE BECAME PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE.... and that they are primarily in the suburbs which have fled the Republican Party in droves from 2018 to now with him as the standard bearer. The fact that every election since 2018 has been an unmitigated disaster for the GOP also helps. And now you expect us to believe all those people are gonna magically come running back to him now?

He has to reach out to the disaffected Republicans and also figure out how to drag the 20-25% that keeps voting against him back in.

These are his totals since Haley dropped out and the percentage that went somewhere else are in parenthesis. It's a good proxy for how damaged he is and how much work he should be doing to win them back but refuses to do...
3/12:
Georgia 84.5% (15.5%)
Hawaii 97.1% (2.9%)
Mississippi 92.7% (7.3%)
Washington State 76.2% (23.8%)

3/15:
Northern Marianas Islands 90.1% (9.9%)

3/19:
Arizona with 93% in he is at 78.5% (21.5%)
Florida 81.2% (18.8%)
Illinois 80.7% (19.3%)
Ohio 79.2% (20.8%)
Kansas 75.5% (24.5%)

Those are horrid numbers for somebody who locked it up and it shows there is a large resistance out there. Unless he throws them a bone expecting them to just capitulate anyways is asinine.

Biden clearly has a more unified coalition as he consistently performs 10-15 points better than Trump does.

[Matt]

Ok Matt, which do you think is more likely to happen, in reality? 40 percent of Republicans (who would otherwise vote and vote for the Republican nominee) not voting for Trump, or that number being in the single digits? Splitting the difference would be 25, and I would wager you a substantial amount of money that it will be under that.

40% is unfortunately an exaggeration as I believe that threat would move the party to stump election loser Trump. I'll also say 20% is too high - I'd put it at 10% as the high water mark. I have no doubt that some will hold their nose, but I simply can't. Not only do I believe he can't win - more importantly, I don't think he SHOULD win.

[Rate This]

Ok Matt, which do you think is more likely to happen, in reality? 40 percent of Republicans (who would otherwise vote and vote for the Republican nominee) not voting for Trump, or that number being in the single digits? Splitting the difference would be 25, and I would wager you a substantial amount of money that it will be under that.

40% is unfortunately an exaggeration as I believe that threat would move the party to stump election loser Trump. I'll also say 20% is too high - I'd put it at 10% as the high water mark. I have no doubt that some will hold their nose, but I simply can't. Not only do I believe he can't win - more importantly, I don't think he SHOULD win.

What might be instructive is Louisiana on Saturday and then the next primary which is Pennsylvania on April 20th. If he really is making headway then his percentages should be going up and the protest votes should be going down. If we hit April 20th and Pennsylvania gives him around 80% like these others I would say there is a real NO! come hell or high water vote out there within the party.

[zzand]

Another thing to consider is his lies are getting more and more out there and even Trump fans are starting to call him out on them. Also more and more big Republicans are coming out saying they will not support him, a lot former members of his staff from his four years in office, and this too is starting to work against him. He has a big hill to climb and he isn't even working toward walking to that hill. Also with him having to be in court that will take away needed time on the road.

[TC Talks]

I know numerous Republicans who don't yet know what they are going to do except not vote Trump.

I think the undeclared choose the next President like they did last time. I wouldn't worry what registered party types do.

BMW, you suggest that Pennsylvania decides the election, but didn't Georgia have a role last time?

Are you assuming Michigan goes Biden?