Residents abandoning shithole cities post-Covid

[bmw]

This conversation began in the DeSantis vs. Disney thread, but I think is worthy of its own discussion. In that thread, it was proposed that Florida's recent population growth is attributable largely to Florida's weather. Population data suggests otherwise.

Let's compare 3 states: Florida, Michigan, and California. In each instance, the map to the left is the state's population change between 2010 and 2019, and the map to the right is the change between 2020 and 2021.







https://usafacts.org/

For reference, the overall national growth between 2010 and 2019 was 7.0% and between 2020 and 2021 it was 0.1%. Obviously the smaller than average population growth from 2020 to 2021 was due to Covid deaths, but we still had a net gain in overall population.

A few things that jump out at me looking over these maps:

-Florida's population grew at 10x the national average between 2020 and 2021 and was even doing well prior to that at 2x. But even in a state with overall growth, a few areas had significant losses - Miami, Orlando, and Fort Lauderdale (all run by Democrats, btw), despite those places having significant growth prior to Covid.

-Michigan has been sucking for over 10 years now. But where there were changes post-Covid, it was people leaving the big cities and moving into the northern lower peninsula and even into the u.p..

-California had a lot of growth post-Covid in certain areas, but that was more than undone by people leaving a few key places in droves, namely in Los Angeles which alone lost nearly 160,000 people. and L.A. was growing significantly pre-Covid.

As an aside, I find it fascinating that TC Talks makes a big deal out of DeSantis allegedly scaring away 2,000 jobs from Florida, but is mum on the politicians in Los Angeles scaring away 160,000 residents.

[Bryce]

The problem with this migration is people bring their voting habits, which turned the place they left into a shithole, with them.

[Chrocket87]

My wife and I were in the Bay Area a couple weeks ago to visit some ballparks and sightseeing. Every Uber driver we took during that week mentioned how emptied out SF had become since Covid and how nervous they were about the city’s future.

Gotta wonder if the city is actually considering things that will bring the prosperity back, other than large-scale reparations programs.

[Mega Hertz]

Weird. I just saw a headline the other day about Detroit's population declining again. Which is weird, because we just built MORE condos/townhouses right off Trumbull.

While we were working, we saw some guys in the middle of the street making deals. Other than a quick second thought of "Hmmmm...maybe one won't hurt me....", I smacked myself and then realized these worlds are clashing way too much.

[km1125]

It's all explained by climate change!

Yea, that's it! Climate change!



Good visualizations though. It really makes you wonder where those folks in Miami (and similar places) are moving to.

[bmw]

The problem with this migration is people bring their voting habits, which turned the place they left into a shithole, with them.

As is probably the case in Dallas. Their mayor (also a Democrat, big shocker there) was elected with over 98% of the vote. Then people from there started leaving Dallas for the suburbs (which should also answer km's question). This map very clearly shows people having had enough of the big cities. And just like everywhere else (ok, except Detroit), Dallas was growing in leaps and bounds prior to 2020.

Also, on the whole, Texas actually grew slightly more than FL in population, increasing by 1.1%.

[TC Talks]

The problem with this migration is people bring their voting habits, which turned the place they left into a shithole, with them.

No so much there Bryce, but I do like how the South and Arizona are now in play.

[TC Talks]

This conversation began in the DeSantis vs. Disney thread, but I think is worthy of its own discussion. In that thread, it was proposed that Florida's recent population growth is attributable largely to Florida's weather. Population data suggests otherwise.

Let's compare 3 states: Florida, Michigan, and California. In each instance, the map to the left is the state's population change between 2010 and 2019, and the map to the right is the change between 2020 and 2021.

Great analysis on population movement. When you get more granular your premise falls apart. Add some demographic data to your 40,000 foot view and you'll realize these three states are completely unrelated to each other. I have access to the most comprehensive data source available, and get paid embarrassingly to advise people on this topic. What are you trying to prove?

Here is an article from 2018 (gifted and unlocked) about this very topic. There is another one from last week I will share later...

Which Cities Are People Leaving — and Where Are They Going?

Population shifts can now be anticipated by analyzing real estate searches.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/20/real ... qHsQsGcfDc

[bmw]

What am I trying to prove? What I'm suggesting is that there was a sudden change in longer-term trends in the aftermath of Covid whereby populations are shifting away from big cities and into more rural areas. Are you suggesting that this isn't the case?

btw - I checked out your other link, and that database looks massive. I wouldn't even know where to start. So since you get paid on this stuff and know way more than I do about the details (i don't necessarily dispute that), what is it that I have specifically gotten wrong with my general assessment?

[Rate This]

What am I trying to prove? What I'm suggesting is that there was a sudden change in longer-term trends in the aftermath of Covid whereby populations are shifting away from big cities and into more rural areas. Are you suggesting that this isn't the case?

btw - I checked out your other link, and that database looks massive. I wouldn't even know where to start. So since you get paid on this stuff and know way more than I do about the details (i don't necessarily dispute that), what is it that I have specifically gotten wrong with my general assessment?

That you cannot boil a hundreds of factor explanation to “Democrat run cities” for starters.

[TC Talks]

BMW, you don't know what you don't know. Education and Crime can be motivating factors, but they are more related to poverty than voting.

Look how many people have left very red rural areas of the country. Even greater than from Urban areas, and thousands of dead towns and villages. Should I conclude that they are trying to escape Republicans?

The one common denominator is poverty and also probably lack of resources.

[Bryce]

The one common denominator is poverty and also probably lack of resources.

Yeah? Gee! We as a nation should maybe think about spending some money to eliminate that.

Maybe we could get someone in a leadership position to even start a war on it.

[TC Talks]

The one common denominator is poverty and also probably lack of resources.

Yeah? Gee! We as a nation should maybe think about spending some money to eliminate that.

Maybe we could get someone in a leadership position to even start a war on it.

Why start a war on poverty when we can fall deep into debt so that fat white men from Texas and Wyoming can spend trillions of American tax dollars fighting imaginary warriors in Iraq and Afghanistan while destabilize global oil prices.

Why don't we do that instead? That would work out much better.

[bmw]

Look how many people have left very red rural areas of the country. Even greater than from Urban areas...

Post-Covid? Where? Cite an example. I'm not talking about Pre-Covid as I already acknowledged that urban areas (at least the ones in FL and CA anyways) saw massive population growth during the 10 years prior. What I'm suggesting is that this trend abruptly changed as soon as Covid hit.

Also, if we're going to start blaming Presidents and Vice-Presidents for poverty, it is fair to point out that poverty levels among black people fell more during Trump's 4 years as President than it did during Obama's 8 years.

[Ben Zonia]

Looks like they are buying into TC Talks' "Traverse City Is The Center Of The Universe" propaganda, all without the benefit of adequate roads, no expressways within 20 miles South, 50 miles East, and traffic jams equivalent to cities 10 times or more larger. And an airport that should have been much further out in retrospect, making short bird fly trips three times longer, wasting gas by having to go around it. If you look at the VFR charts, you'll see that the in the vast majority of larger cities, major airports were built in rural or semi rural areas. Suburban growth since the 1950s may surround them now, but they are still way off to the side from the center of population.

That whole "Work From Home" thing that began in 2020 may be a boon, but also a boondoggle, in Traverse City. I can see why the old timers don't like the "Fudgies" that moved up, into row upon row of condominiums and McMansions.